Executive Summary: America’s Licensed Child Care Deserts

A recent Center for American Progress report, in collaboration with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Stanford University, highlights the supply of licensed child care—areas where there are more than three local young children under age 6 per local licensed child care slot—across the United States. The report provides new estimates of the percentage of children under age 5 who have inadequate access to a licensed child care slot and offers a suite of recommendations for both state and federal lawmakers to address the widespread supply crisis.

Accessible, high-quality child care is vital for a strong economy and children’s lifelong success:

• Care is essential. Almost 70 percent of young children have all parents employed, making nonparental care a necessity for most families.
• The supply crisis stokes economic hardship. The lack of licensed child care plagues nearly half of families, costing the economy an estimated $172 billion annually in lost productivity, earnings, and tax revenue.
• The supply crisis negatively affects the early educator workforce. The lack of child care supply exacerbates early educator burnout, increasing turnover, and keeps the child care sector threadbare.
• The affordability crisis puts a strain on the working class. These high costs push an estimated 134,000 families into poverty and half a million more into a lower income bracket.

Licensed child care deserts serve as a useful tool for describing the access that families with children under age 6 have to nearby programs. However, it should be noted that informal care arrangements, which help supplement licensed child care supply, are not captured in this analysis due to data limitations. Nevertheless, new CAP analyses of licensed child care access across the country reveal several key findings:

• Total licensed child care supply.
  • 46 percent of America’s children under age 6 lived in a licensed child care desert in 2025, while the same was true for 51 percent in 2018.*
  • Licensed child care deserts vary significantly from state to state, with even greater variation at the community level. The four areas with the lowest percentages of children living in a desert are Washington, D.C. (5 percent); Massachusetts (21 percent); and New Jersey and Nebraska (approximately 25 percent each). The three areas with the highest percentages are Idaho (83 percent); Hawaii (95 percent); and Alaska (96 percent).**
  • An estimated 44 percent of children under age 6 in poverty live in a child care desert—slightly lower than the national average.
• Licensed child care in predominantly Hispanic/Latino and Black, non-Hispanic communities.
  • Majority-Hispanic/Latino communities have the highest licensed child care desert rate at an average of 52.2 percent. Majority-Black, non-Hispanic communities experience an average rate of approximately 35 percent of young children in licensed child care deserts.
  • Urban majority-Black, non-Hispanic areas have the lowest licensed child care desert rate of any group at just less than 30 percent on average, but that pattern largely disappears for rural majority-Black, non-Hispanic communities, where 56 percent on average are represented in licensed deserts. Thus, the infrastructure serving Black non-Hispanic communities seems to be heavily concentrated in cities. The urban Hispanic/Latino desert rate, at 52 percent, is more consistent with the average 60 percent rate of rural communities, meaning the equity gap for Hispanic/Latino communities exists regardless of geography.
• Licensed child care in rural communities. Rural families continue to face extreme shortages in licensed child care. Despite a slight decline in the total number of licensed child care deserts nationwide, the number of deserts in most rural communities has increased—and in remote rural areas, 70 percent of young children live in a licensed child care desert, compared with an estimated two-thirds of families in 2018.
• The role of Head Start in licensed child care access.
  • Head Start deserts are nearly universal when the three-to-one benchmark—as defines licensed child care deserts, where there are three children under age 6 for every one local licensed child care slot—is applied among young, low-income children who qualify for the program.
  • The distribution of Head Start access is more uneven: Nearly half of rural communities have no Head Start programs at all, compared with just more than 20 percent in urban areas. Additionally, only 49 percent of rural households have some access, while nearly 80 percent of qualifying urban households do.

High-quality early learning supports children’s development and enables parents to work or pursue education. Despite its importance, the nation faces a severe shortage of child care, particularly in rural areas. Chronic underfunding has prevented the system from meeting the needs of providers, educators, and families alike. This new study of licensed child care reveals that nearly half of American families struggle to access the care they need, with child care deserts disproportionately affecting those in less populated regions. The failing child care market hinders the nation’s potential. Lawmakers must intervene by providing the necessary funding to boost supply, retain a skilled workforce, and reduce the high costs for families.

* Data collection approaches vary slightly between the 2018 and 2025 analyses, and reflect two different census periods. Overall shifts in population, coupled with changes in the licensed provider landscape, will affect access measures. Comparisons should be made with caution.

** Differences in state child care licensing and registration requirements directly affect measures of child care access and desert designations. For instance, some states require registration for one nonfamily child, while others allow up to three before registration is mandatory. Because licensing determines which providers are counted, comparisons within a state are more reliable than comparisons across states.