During his campaign and in the first weeks of his second administration, President Donald Trump has promised to lower energy prices by employing a “drill, baby, drill” approach. In practice, this appears to mean removing protections from public lands and waters and requiring additional lease sales for the oil and gas industry.
On his first day in office, President Trump signed a flurry of executive orders—including the declaration of an “energy emergency” under the guise of lowering energy prices and increasing supply, despite the fact that the United States is producing more oil than at any point in history. These orders included actions to remove protections against offshore drilling, block wind energy development, send even more fuel abroad, and put oil and gas development before reasonable safeguards, such as those for clean water. During his first week on the job, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum built on these orders and specifically called for offering more public lands and water for oil and gas leasing, among other actions. Congress has signaled that it also plans to support the “drill, baby, drill” agenda, primarily by mandating lease sales on Western public lands, in the ocean, and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
The problem with mandating lease sales on public lands and waters is that it won’t do anything to lower gasoline or energy prices. What it will do is ensure that U.S. public lands and waters are prioritized for oil and gas while shifting the balance away from other uses such as recreation, conservation, and renewable energy. The sales will also help corporate polluters get even richer along the way.
Below are five reasons why these actions won’t lower energy prices or benefit consumers.
1. Companies already have enough land and water leased
The oil industry does not need new government actions to decide to produce more oil. The industry already has on hand more than 35 million acres of oil and gas leases on federal lands and waters—an area roughly the size of the state of Florida—and currently produces on less than half of those acres. More than 10 million acres onshore (46 percent) and 9 million acres offshore (79 percent) are leased but oil is not being produced.* The availability of lands and waters to drill for oil is simply not a problem. What’s more, only about a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production occurs on federal lands and waters. The other 75 percent of production is done on state and private resources, over which President Trump has no control.
2. Liquified natural gas (LNG) exports will raise domestic energy prices
President Trump’s actions will speed up the shipment of fuel overseas by expediting the creation and operation of facilities that export LNG—ultimately hurting Americans. Domestic prices could go up by more than 30 percent if the United States exports more LNG and further ties domestic natural gas prices to global markets. Businesses that buy gas for heating or electricity will likely have to buy it at higher prices, and consumers could see their bills rise right along with the price of LNG.
3. Corporations are in it to make more money, not to help the public
At the end of the day, oil and gas corporations are all about their bottom lines. It is not in the best interest of the oil and gas industry for energy prices or prices at the pump to be low. The industry will gladly accept administrative actions to bypass environmental review, increase subsidies, and strip competition, but corporations will not produce more oil unless it’s in their financial interest. Industry insiders have not been shy about making this clear. A week into Trump’s presidency, The New York Times reported that “for drilling and fracking to pick up substantially, oil and natural gas prices would have to rise, [oil and gas industry] executives say.” Similarly, Reuters reported an energy consultancy saying that “Trump’s use of the ‘drill, baby, drill’ mantra in his inauguration speech overestimates the industry’s willingness to prioritize growth over generating shareholder returns.”
4. Oil and gas companies collude to set prices
Energy prices from fossil fuels are controlled by the global market, which is highly susceptible to influence by international conflict, manipulation by foreign regimes, and collusion by bad actors. U.S. consumers saw the effects of brazen collusion take place from 2021 to 2023, when gasoline prices hit a high of nearly $5 per gallon. In 2024, the Federal Trade Commission alleged that the oil companies Hess and Pioneer—both companies that hold federal leases—attempted to collude with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise oil prices. To be clear, OPEC is a cartel of foreign countries created to influence the global oil market and to maximize profit. That alleged collusion attempt is estimated to have cost U.S. consumers between $500 and $1,000 per year through direct and indirect effects. As President Trump further loosens measures designed to hold Big Oil accountable, these kinds of events have the potential to become even more routine.
5. Companies are not interested in the places being offered
Under the Biden administration, oil and gas production reached record highs. Oil and gas companies get to choose the federal lands they want to develop, and they have largely locked up and capitalized on all the major sources of oil. Many of the places where President Trump and Congress are proposing mandated lease sales are in extreme areas that industry and Americans have decided are not worth drilling—such as America’s Arctic, which doesn’t have existing infrastructure but does have sensitive polar bear and caribou habitat. The last lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—mandated by Congress during President Trump’s first term—received no bids from oil and gas companies. Similarly, his current actions aim to reverse protections from ocean drilling in places such as the East Coast and Florida, which could mean leases in places where communities, governors, and members of Congress have been vocally opposed to drilling.
Corporate polluters stand to profit from the Trump administration’s actions
Mandating new leasing will not reduce energy prices for consumers, but it could increase the amount of money going to corporate polluters. Federal leases are notoriously cheap and could get even more inexpensive for oil companies if Congress rolls back recent commonsense reforms. Even buying and sitting on leases that they never plan to develop can make companies look better on paper to investors. This is because more leases can count toward a company’s assets and pad its bottom line.
This benefit for oil companies doesn’t come as a surprise. Last year, then-candidate Trump made a “blunt and transactional pitch” to a group of oil industry executives at a fundraising dinner, promising to overturn environmental policies if they donated money to return him to the White House. According to The Washington Post, Trump called the proposal a “deal” for the companies “because of the taxation and regulation they would avoid.” In total, the companies represented at the dinner made more than $75 billion in 2023.
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Conclusion
President Trump said he would lower energy prices for the American public. Yet the actions he and his secretary of the interior have taken, and that Congress is poised to add to, will not lower—and could even raise—people’s energy bills and prices at the pump, in addition to threatening Americans’ clean water, clean air, and access to outdoor spaces. One group could have more money because of these actions: corporate polluters, including oil and gas executives who were offered favors from Trump months ago.
The authors would like to thank Nicole Gentile, Kendra Hughes, Devon Lespier, Cindy Murphy-Tofig, Meghan Miller, and Audrey Juarez of the Center for American Progress for their contributions.
*Authors’ note: CAP analysis of offshore Bureau of Ocean Energy Management data from January 2025 and onshore Bureau of Land Management data from December 2023, the most recent available data.