However, since the collapse of the ceasefire deal on March 18, the IDF has restarted its offensive on Gaza, killed more than 1,000 Palestinians, and imposed a blockade on humanitarian aid. Hamas, for its part, has resumed launching rockets and missiles at Israel, while the Yemen-based Houthis are once again targeting Israel and U.S. assets. No additional hostages have been released, as renewed hostilities have dramatically increased the risk to their physical security. Meanwhile, the IDF has returned to prior positions in the Gaza Strip, including the Netzarim Corridor, and increased its buffer zone inside Gaza to 2–5 kilometers. By one estimate, the IDF currently controls more than 50 percent of Gaza’s territory.
Though Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government are the most responsible for the war’s resumption, U.S. President Donald Trump deserves significant blame for the renewed hostilities due to his mismanagement of negotiations to extend the January 15 ceasefire. Specifically, the Trump administration failed to make any discernible progress on the conditions for entering the second phase of the deal, at which point the cessation of hostilities would have become permanent.
Trump’s failure to extend the ceasefire
In truth, it is unclear whether Trump and his aides even tried to mediate a phase 2 agreement. According to the January 15 deal endorsed by Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump, these negotiations were supposed to begin no later than the 16th day of phase 1 and to conclude by the end of the fifth week. Unfortunately, Netanyahu reportedly never authorized his team to negotiate the core elements of phase 2, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the disposition of Hamas, and post-conflict governance.
The Trump administration never pressed Netanyahu to negotiate seriously on phase 2. Instead, Steven Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, quickly pivoted to an attempt to extend phase 1 of the ceasefire by as much as 50 days while more Israeli hostages were traded for Palestinian prisoners. The administration’s only consistent reference to a phase 2 plan was Trump’s idea to displace Palestinians from Gaza in order to develop the strip into a playground for vacationers—a complete nonstarter that could constitute a war crime.
Trump and his team remained largely silent on Israel’s avoidance of phase 2 negotiations, a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Throughout this period, Trump and his team remained largely silent on Israel’s avoidance of phase 2 negotiations, a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement. In the end, Trump inexplicably endorsed Israel’s decision to walk away from the ceasefire despite the absence of a credible pretext. By contrast, when Hamas released the wrong body to Israel and threatened to forego a scheduled release of Israeli hostages, the administration responded with appropriate outrage.
It is unclear why Trump, who previously demanded a quick end to the war, decided to abandon the framework Biden’s team painstakingly negotiated. By this point, Netanyahu’s actual motivations were glaringly obvious. It was widely reported that Netanyahu promised Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, who supports the war’s continuation and had the ability to bring down the coalition, he would not enter the second phase of the agreement. Eliminating any ambiguity, the Israeli prime minister publicly and repeatedly insisted on the right to continue the war, even if all Israeli hostages were released.
Making it even more difficult to understand the administration’s logic, Trump had previously recognized that applying pressure on both Hamas and Netanyahu was necessary to break the impasse over the ceasefire concluded on January 15. He publicly threatened Hamas that “all hell will break out” if the hostages were not released. Witkoff, meanwhile, discreetly pushed Netanyahu to agree to Biden’s proposal, which he acknowledged left Israel “intimidated.” Yet when it came time to implement that ceasefire, Trump failed to enforce its terms. His April 7 declaration during Netanyahu’s Oval Office meeting that the latter is “working very, very hard on the hostages” surely perplexed the 70 percent of Israelis who distrust Israel’s coalition government.
Unless Trump salvages a ceasefire, it will be a tragedy of major proportions.
What is clearer is that unless Trump salvages a ceasefire, it will be a tragedy of major proportions. While scrutiny of Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza is warranted, he left Trump with a comparatively favorable hand to play. The Biden administration negotiated a separate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, worked with Israel and other regional partners to thwart Iranian attacks on Israel, and bequeathed a viable if imperfect framework to end the war in Gaza. If anything, Trump’s unpredictability and popularity in Israel make it harder for Israel or Hamas to say no to him.
It would not be fair to present the extension of the ceasefire as a fait accompli; Netanyahu was resisting it all along. But Trump had the tools to compel both parties to comply with the terms, and he chose not to do so. Trump’s policy failures snatched violence from the jaws of peace, creating a less propitious environment for a durable calm with each passing day.
Conclusion
If Israel can persuade Hamas to release additional hostages prior to a second phase, that would obviously be welcome. It would not, however, answer the post-conflict challenges on which lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians depend. Such an outcome would enable Netanyahu and Hamas to kick the can of post-conflict Gaza down the road. Unless the Trump administration changes it approach, more Israeli hostages could die, more Palestinians will be killed, and the United States will look increasingly feckless. There is nothing good, let alone great, about this trajectory.