As a result, the outcome of Mexico’s largest-ever election—where voters elected not only Claudia Sheinbaum, who will be the country’s first female president, but also all 128 seats in the Senate, all 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, nine governors, and thousands of local offices across the county’s 32 jurisdictions—is relevant not only to Mexico but to the United States as well. How newly elected officials interact and govern will go a long way in determining whether Mexico consolidates its still-young democracy or slides back into its undemocratic past. That will have broad economic, security, and societal consequences on both sides of a shared 1,954-mile border.
Mexico’s democracy hangs in the balance
Mexico’s democracy is under strain, in part, because of the power of transnational organized criminal groups that exercise increasing territorial control across the country. This election was marred by shocking levels of political violence perpetrated by these groups. A database project run by the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)—a government-funded research institution—estimates that in 2024, as of Mexico’s election day, there have been 351 total threats, attacks, murders, and attempts against people in government or involved in politics or against those who work in government or party facilities. Mexico is also the most dangerous country in the Western Hemisphere for journalists, other media workers, and human rights defenders. They are disappeared and killed due to their work and face constant threats, harassment, and physical and psychological abuse by both state actors and organized crime groups.
How newly elected officials interact and govern will go a long way in determining whether Mexico consolidates its still-young democracy or slides back into its undemocratic past.
The precarity of Mexico’s democracy, however, is also, in part, a function of six years of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s political assault on the country’s institutions—governmental and nongovernmental alike. Where he perceived institutions to oppose the interests of his administration, López Obrador attempted to pass constitutional and legal reforms that would diminish their power or cut their budgets while aiming public criticism at their leadership. For example, López Obrador’s ruling political party, Morena, and its legislative allies passed a law in February 2023 that reduced the Instituto Nacional Electoral’s (INE) staff by approximately 85 percent and cut its budget by $271 million. He has also attacked journalists in hours-long press briefings and has frequently targeted Mexico’s judiciary and accused judges of being part of a conservative conspiracy against his administration. Finally, López Obrador used his daily press conferences and control over state resources to support and campaign for Sheinbaum, his chosen successor, and worked overtime to put his thumb on the scale by proposing broad constitutional reforms ahead of the June election to the benefit of his political agenda.
So far, Mexico’s independent institutions have endured. But the future of checks and balances between Mexico’s three branches of government, independent institutions, press, and civil society will be front and center throughout the next “sexenio,” the six-year term of office of the incoming president of Mexico. As of now, preliminary official figures show the ruling Morena party on track to gain supermajorities in both houses of Congress and to control 23 governorships out of 31 states and Mexico City’s mayorship.
The United States must ensure its support for Mexico’s democracy
The coming arrival of a new government in Mexico—even one that marks political, if not stylistic, continuity—presents an opportunity for the United States to ensure it moves forward in a way that supports democratic consolidation in its closest neighbor. The common pursuit of managing shared challenges, including migration management and efforts to combat cross-border trafficking of fentanyl and firearms, for example, should not come at the expense of ignoring democratic backsliding in Mexico.
These issues are inextricably linked. Failing to stand up for democracy now risks exacerbating Mexico’s other domestic challenges, including rising internal and external Mexican displacement, down the road. Strong democratic institutions are important prerequisites to long-term political stability, economic prosperity, and social cohesion. This so-called democracy dividend not only helps address immediate challenges, such as migration management and illicit drug and weapons flows between the United States and Mexico, but also paves the way for long-term institutional resilience that, ultimately, will benefit the entire North American region.
Strong democratic institutions are important prerequisites to long-term political stability.
The volatile combination of U.S. democratic shortcomings, the demonization of Mexico and Mexicans by some U.S. political actors, and the lasting power of Mexican nationalism makes standing up for democratic values in Mexico challenging. Those complications, however, are not an excuse for failure to do so.
For example, through words and actions, the Biden administration, as it works with the incoming administration and new Congress and governors in Mexico, should publicly embrace a wide range of political and civic actors—those aligned with the new president as well as those who will be in opposition. At the same time, it should promote a high-level, bipartisan delegation to the Mexican presidential inaugural. There should be no doubt the United States will continue to speak up for the defense of human rights in Mexico; raise its voice in clear defense of press freedom; and continue supporting civil society actors promoting transparency and accountability in Mexico.
Conclusion
While the defense of democracy within the borders of the United States remains the existential task at hand, standing up for democracy in our closest neighbor is of fundamental importance to the vibrancy of North America and to shared peace and prosperity in two countries whose fates are tied together.