Turkey’s pursuit of strategic autonomy should be met with firm transactionalism by the Biden administration, and while this stance is unlikely to change President Erdoğan’s unilateral approach, it could help preserve certain institutional ties.
Polling shows that members of Europe’s Turkish and Turkish-Kurdish diaspora value their separate identity; nevertheless, they welcome the opportunities and freedom of life in Europe, even in the face of lingering discrimination.
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Generational change and shifting attitudes in conservative Turkey could bring fragmentation of the dominant right-wing bloc and, potentially, a new political alignment—prospects that will continue to shape President Erdoğan’s actions at home and abroad.
Government censorship is rapidly reshaping how Turks get their news, with major implications for Turkish foreign policy, political polarization, and Erdoğan’s rule.
While President Erdoğan’s support is not boundless, no potential successor currently appears able to hold together the diverse conservative constituency that dominates Turkish politics.
President Trump’s withdrawal from Syria has thrown the region into chaos, shattered American credibility, and uncovered deep problems with U.S. policy toward Turkey.
The benefits of rapprochement between the Turkish government and Kurdish militants are clear, but hopes for an easing of tensions rest on shaky political ground.
If Ankara moves forward with the purchase of Russia’s air defense system, the United States should begin downgrading security ties with Turkey.
Despite Turkish leaders’ frequent insistence that Syrian refugees will return home, privately, they seem to be preparing for the likelihood that most will remain permanently.
Turkish public opinion is hostile toward the European Union and may limit the potential of Ankara’s recent attempts to reset relations with the Euro bloc.
The United States should take a harder line with Turkey and begin to prepare for the potential implications of Erdoğan’s aggressive nationalism.
A major new poll ahead of Turkish elections shows sharp divisions among Turks about the president’s tenure and the vulnerability of Erdoğan and the government on the economy.
Turkish politics is dominated by amorphous questions of identity, rather than tangible questions of public policy.