Washington, D.C. — A new analysis from the Center for American Progress examines July’s disappointing jobs report, which adds to growing evidence that the labor market is weakening. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, more than 264,000 people left the labor force, and job growth for May and June was revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. These warnings compound long-term trends in teen employment, a signal of a weakening job market for all Americans.
Teen workers are often among the first groups to experience the effects of a cooling labor market. The share of teens ages 16 to 19 who are employed has fallen from a peak of 50.0 percent in 1978 to just 30.7 percent today. Teens are particularly vulnerable to volatility in the part-time jobs market as well as the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).
“Today’s jobs report shows a labor market that is clearly losing momentum,” said Sara Estep, economist at CAP and co-author of the analysis. “The economy lost jobs, and prior months were revised sharply downward. The unemployment rate fell but not for good reasons, as more than a quarter-million workers exited the labor force. Meanwhile, teen employment as a share of their population has been sliding—often a bellwether for broader labor market weakness, which we saw today.”
Among the analysis’s key findings:
- The labor market weakened significantly in July. The economy lost 23,000 jobs, 264,000 people left the labor force, and payroll growth in May and June was revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs.
- Teen employment has fallen over time. The share of teens employed has declined from 50.0 percent in August 1978 to 30.7 percent in July 2026.
- Teen boys have lower employment-to-population (EPOP) ratios than girls. As of July 2026, EPOP among teen boys stood at 29.4 percent, compared with 32.0 percent among teen girls. However, girls’ EPOP has fallen faster than boys in recent years.
- Black teens continue to have lower EPOP ratios. Black teen EPOP remained low at 24.8 percent in July 2026, compared with 33.4 percent for white teens.
- Structural changes in the labor market are reducing opportunities for young workers. Softening demand in retail and leisure and hospitality industries, along with growing use of automation and AI, are reducing opportunities in occupations traditionally held by teens.
Declining teen employment may be an early indicator of broader labor market weakness while also reflecting longer-term shifts in how young people spend their time, including increased focus on academics and extracurricular activities.
Read the analysis: “Teen Employment Remains Weak: Analysis of the July 2026 Jobs Day Release” by Jazmine Amoako, Sara Estep, and Jiun Park
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].