Washington, D.C. — The Biden-Harris administration’s signature industrial policy program supported investments in new factories, infrastructure, and manufacturing projects through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS), and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These investments tested a theory that presidential candidates can reap electoral rewards by delivering good jobs and meaningful economic opportunity for the working class.
A new Center for American Progress analysis finds that these federal investments in local industry policy projects were associated with an improvement in county-level vote share for Kamala Harris in 2024 compared with Joe Biden’s county-level vote share in 2020. These projects also were associated with a decrease in Donald Trump’s county-level vote share in 2024 compared with 2020, although the vote differences were slight and insufficient to swing the election in Harris’ favor. Some key takeaways from the report include:
- Each additional IIJA, CHIPS, or IRA project in a county is associated with an increase in Harris’ vote share of 0.028 percentage points in that county and a decrease in Trump’s vote share of 0.026 percentage points when compared with Biden and Trump’s 2020 election performances.
- Infrastructure investments were associated with a greater impact on vote share than manufacturing investments.
- The estimated effect on a county with a median number of IIJA, CHIPS, and IRA projects was a better vote share performance of roughly 0.11 percentage points for Harris compared with Biden, and worse performance of 0.10 percentage points for Trump in 2024 compared with 2020.
“Although the gains were slight for Kamala Harris, one thing is clear: Voters did in fact reward the Biden-Harris administration for industrial policy investments that create good jobs for the working class,” said David Madland, senior fellow and senior adviser to the American Worker Project at CAP and co-author of the report. “Why the political gains were relatively small is the next question to answer. America needs to invest in the working class and politicians need to see the benefits of doing so.”
Read the report here: “Industrial Policy Projects Boosted Harris and Hurt Trump in the 2024 Election, but Not by Much” by Aurelia Glass and David Madland
For more information or to speak with an expert please contact Sarah Nadeau at [email protected].