Introduction
For decades, the United States and India have built a steadily deepening partnership, forged by shared strategic interests, economic ties, and growing defense cooperation. From nuclear agreements to joint military exercises and technological collaboration, the two democracies have carefully nurtured trust that took nearly 30 years to cultivate.
However, recent actions by the Trump administration have jeopardized this hard-earned trust—not through regular policy disagreements or normal diplomatic friction, but by actions and rhetoric that cut deeper than the usual strains in the U.S.-India relationship.
The Trump administration’s 50 percent tariff on goods from India, President Donald Trump’s claiming credit for achieving a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and a controversial meeting with the Pakistani army chief in the Oval Office are not the typical Trump-style bullying elsewhere that could be repaired with lowering tariff rates. When done to India, such actions cut deeper, serve to fundamentally break trust built over nearly 30 years, and play into India’s deepest historic reservations about the relationship: Don’t get in too deep with the Americans because they will always betray you. This breach has the potential to threaten the long-term foundation of U.S. strategic engagement with India and may prove impossible to repair. At a moment when the U.S.-India partnership is more important than ever, this breach takes on added significance.
The strategic partnership
In April 2025, Vice President JD Vance gave a keynote policy speech on the strategic importance of the U.S.-India partnership, calling it “the cornerstone of global progress” and warning that the 21st century could be “a very dark time for all of humanity” if the two countries “fail to work together successfully.”
Vice President Vance is right. The United States’ relationship with India is of vital national importance and will play a defining role in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the next century. This isn’t just about competition with China. India’s growing influence across the globe, south and north, as well as its myriad economic possibilities for American businesses, argue for much deeper relations between these two democracies. Yet recent moves by the Trump administration have fundamentally broken trust that a bipartisan group of presidents built up over nearly three decades and will be extremely difficult to repair now and into the future.
The U.S.-India rift
It started with the May 2025 flare-up between India and Pakistan, a military conflict that saw intense firing with small arms, mortars, and artillery that left several dozen soldiers dead on both sides and displaced thousands of civilians. After four days of fighting, both New Delhi and Islamabad negotiated a bilateral ceasefire through their military hotlines, in line with how past crises and conflicts have been resolved. Although the United States sought to engage diplomatically, the two sides conducted direct negotiations to resolve the conflict. President Trump nevertheless claimed credit, adding the ceasefire to his dubious roster of “peace deals” struck in pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize. When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not acknowledge a U.S. role in brokering a ceasefire or support President Trump’s bid for a Nobel Peace Prize, tensions escalated. President Trump retaliated by increasing tariffs on Indian imports from an already high 25 percent to 50 percent. No country currently faces higher tariffs exporting to the United States than India.
Adding insult to injury, President Trump a few weeks later met with Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the Oval Office after Pakistan had formally nominated President Trump for the Nobel prize. He repeatedly praised Pakistan’s leaders as “incredible” and thanked them for “saving millions and millions of lives.”
In September 2025, Modi traveled to Beijing to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, where he embraced Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin and met other world leaders including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. This trip marked Modi’s first trip to China in seven years and was clearly intended as a signal to the Trump administration that India has options and that the tariffs and the claims to have solved the recent India-Pakistan conflict were not welcome.
And this is precisely where the problem lies. Deeply woven into India’s worldview is a nonaligned ethos that New Delhi will eventually and inevitably be let down by the United States. Since the imposition of legally required sanctions following India’s 1998 nuclear test, careful diplomatic work by leaders on both sides has sought to move beyond a nonaligned mindset toward a more fulsome relationship based on trade, nuclear energy, tech cooperation, diplomacy, and joint military exercises. Over the ensuing decades, Indian proponents of this approach have constantly contended with hardliners who maintained deep suspicion and profound distrust of Washington. This raw nerve of distrust, never far from the surface, is now exposed for all to see.
Recognizing this dynamic and eager for a closer relationship, Modi prioritized India’s relationship with the United States, honoring President Barack Obama during India’s annual national celebrations to mark the adoption of its constitution, appearing with President Trump at a “Howdy Modi!” celebration in Texas, and attending President Joe Biden’s state dinner in the White House.
This desire on the part of India for a deeper relationship extended beyond symbolism. In fact, during the Biden administration India conducted more military exercises with the United States than with any other country in the world. The two countries launched the India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X) in 2023, an innovative bridge linking the full spectrum of their defense ecosystems from startups to prime contractors. They also signed a landmark agreement for GE Aerospace to manufacture F-414 jet engines in India, a historic technology transfer to a nontreaty partner, reflecting the depth of trust and partnership between the two countries. By this point, the U.S.-India relationship had reached an “unprecedented level” of strategic and technological collaboration, the strongest it had ever been.
Rising frustrations in India
Despite these tensions, both President Trump and Modi have publicly signaled reconciliation, with President Trump declaring that there is “nothing to worry about” and Modi posting on X that resumed trade talks would unlock “the limitless potential of the India-U.S. partnership.” However, many warn that the real damage has been done.
As former Indian Ambassador Navtej Sarna said, “Historically, there has been a fair amount of skepticism about how much India should be aligned with the U.S. The newer generation had not felt that mistrust. Now, there is a new breach.”
Indian Congress Party member of Parliament Shashi Tharoor made it clear that India would not budge or compromise on its strategic autonomy in response to President Trump. He described the relationship as being on “shaky ground” because of President Trump’s conduct, adding, “Even though there have been 44 or 45 presidents before him, no one has ever seen this kind of behavior coming down from the White House.” Tharoor stressed India’s resolve to maintain its sovereignty and not be told by any country how to handle its foreign and trade policies.
This sentiment is echoed by ordinary Indian citizens as well.
“The Americans have never and can never be trusted friends,” a teacher in Jammu said in a media report. “They can ditch us at any time.” A financial consultant in Delhi added, “Commercial trade may go on, but this feeling will linger.”
On social media, President Trump has disparaged India as a “dead economy” and mockingly suggested it might one day need to purchase oil from Pakistan. President Trump’s senior trade adviser, Peter Navarro, has called the country the “oil money laundromat for the Kremlin” and accused Prime Minister Modi of “getting into bed” with Xi and Putin.
The barrage of abrasive remarks from President Trump and his team has been “deeply offensive” to Indian American communities, undermining years of bridge-building between the two countries. This sentiment has reverberated across the Indian diaspora—from New Jersey to Silicon Valley and beyond—among business leaders, community figures, and students voicing their anger and disillusionment over President Trump’s unpredictable tariffs and haphazard restrictions on student and H-1B visas. For many Indian Americans, the administration’s public statements have shaken confidence in what was once seen as a stable and dependable U.S.-India relationship, especially among younger generations.
Research has noted that the harsh rhetoric from the Trump administration has coincided with escalating hate speech online targeting Indians and Indian Americans. The Center for the Study of Organized Hate documented a fivefold spike in anti-Indian posts on X in August 2025 compared with July 2025, fueled by the president’s comments and amplified by his supporters. “The United States is the epicenter of anti-Indian digital hostility,” said Raqib Hameed Naik, executive director of the organization.
Across India and beyond, many view President Trump’s rhetoric as a revival of the old pattern of condescension and distrust from the West. Even as India has moved closer to the United States in recent years, the administration’s aggressive policies and public rhetoric have reignited historical suspicions, forcing the Modi government to channel public sentiment into its U.S. engagements.
The cost of broken trust
Even as India and the United States have strengthened their strategic ties, long-standing concerns and mistrust over India’s governance and civil liberties continue to linger—tensions that existed well before this summer’s flare-ups. Many western governments and human rights organizations have raised alarms over democratic backsliding and human rights abuses under Modi’s government, citing growing restrictions on press freedom, harassment of nongovernmental organizations, and the rise of anti-Muslim policies that have fueled religious intolerance and communal violence. U.S. officials were right to call out the targeting of Sikh leaders in the United States and Canada. It is entirely reasonable for international partners to disagree, voice their frustrations and work toward resolving their differences. India’s record on religious extremism and human rights abuse warrants serious criticism, and the United States has historically pushed India to live up to the democratic ideals it claims to represent on the world stage.
But what the Trump administration has done is fundamentally different. It has called into question the very partnership itself. And any chance the United States had of deepening the relationship during this historic period of reordering on the world stage has been shattered.
Ties will not break completely. In recent weeks, Modi has made public gestures to keep the relationship on track with the Trump administration. But the damage has already been done. Instead of building upon more than 25 years of diplomacy and cooperation to deepen relations with the United States, Indian planners and political leaders are likely laying a new mosaic, hedging their bets, and looking for more reliable partners on the world stage.
Conclusion
Nearly three decades’ worth of careful diplomatic and strategic work went up in smoke this summer. What was once a stable and mutually beneficial partnership that weathered crises and served both countries’ strategic interests now teeters on the edge of uncertainty. Rebuilding this trust, if at all possible, will take decades and demand a fundamental shift in how the two nations engage on the world stage. In the meantime, the United States risks losing a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific at a moment when global partnerships are more important than ever.
When all is said and done, the administration’s damage to the U.S.-India relationship may prove to be one of the biggest and most consequential strategic foreign policy mistakes that this administration has made—and that’s really saying something.