To date, fewer than one-fifth of the countries have submitted their climate pledges, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), for the coming decade. This is a concern, because collecting pledges from each country and comparing them once every five years is one of the main ways that the global treaty to address climate change, the Paris Agreement, works to collectively combat the climate crisis through increased climate action. The pressure of global ambition can motivate substantial climate policy choices within individual countries, and through the two rounds of pledges so far, projections of future warming have been cut from 4 degrees Celsius down to 2.6 degrees Celsius—remarkable progress that must continue.
However, the Trump administration’s repudiation of the United States’ commitments to climate action has caused global confusion. The United States’ reversal on climate ambition—it is on track to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by only 26 percent to 35 percent in 2035 instead of the 38 percent to 56 percent projected a year ago—must not cause countries to descend into a race to the bottom. Instead, it should inspire them to be global climate leaders in the absence of the United States.
As of September 22, 2025, only 36 countries—around 18 percent—have submitted their 2035 NDCs, despite the initial deadline being February 10, 2025. It is vital that countries revise their NDCs to be more ambitious to put the world on track to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the global temperature rise limit that would allow the world to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As the U.N. secretary-general convenes the Climate Summit on September 24, 2025, this is a final coordinated push for the remaining countries to submit their updated NDCs before the annual U.N. climate change conference in November—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) 30th Conference of the Parties, or COP30.
What are nationally determined contributions?
Each NDC is essentially a country’s climate action plan. Unlike older climate treaties that imposed top-down targets, the Paris Agreement created a bottom-up framework that empowers each country to put forward its own plan, reflecting national circumstances and priorities. To ensure progress over time, countries submit new NDCs every five years, with each one meant to reflect a country’s “highest possible ambition.” This cycle is meant to steadily ratchet up global climate action, informed by the latest science and by real-world experience.
Governments typically develop their NDCs through technical analysis, consultation with stakeholders, and domestic political debate before formally submitting them to the UNFCCC. The updated NDCs due to be submitted this year are called “NDCs 3.0” because they represent the third round of national climate commitments since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted. Examples of information contained in an NDC include:
- Emission reduction targets, which are quantified goals for cutting GHG emissions by 2035. These are often economywide but sometimes sector-specific, and ideally aligned with pathways to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- Adaptation and resilience targets, which are plans to strengthen resilience against climate impacts, including adaptation goals, measures for vulnerable sectors and communities, and integration with national development strategies.
- Just transition and equity considerations, which ensure climate policies promote fairness, protect livelihoods, and create pathways into the clean energy economy.
- Means of implementation, or frameworks for how targets will be achieved including policies, financing strategies, technology needs, and capacity-building measures and often linked to international support.
How NDCs affect global emissions
A decade ago, projections indicated that global emissions could lead to a temperature rise of approximately 3.1 degrees to 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. Today, due to the creation of NDCs and subsequent climate actions, this projection has improved. With the current policies in place, future global temperature rise is projected to increase 2.7 degrees Celsius; implementing the second round of NDCs alone could limit the temperature rise to approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius. When accounting for binding long-term or net-zero targets, warming could be reduced to around 2.1 degrees Celsius.
Despite this progress, much more needs to be done to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Last year, global temperatures exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold for the first time, underscoring the urgency for stronger action. The current round of NDCs is a crucial opportunity to strengthen commitments and to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon future. These NDCs are also an opportunity to align near-term climate action with longer-term goals. So far 108 countries, representing 81.7 percent of global GHG emissions, have pledged to reach net-zero emissions, most by around mid-century. The new NDCs should chart a clear course toward achieving these long-term targets, helping to ensure that actions taken over the next decade will put the world on track for a safer future.
Measuring ambition in the new NDCs
Looking across the 3.0 submissions, several key metrics stand out as useful benchmarks to evaluate ambition and determine whether the plans will truly advance global climate action.
Economywide emissions reduction targets
An economywide target means a country is committing to cut emissions across all sectors—energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and more—rather than limiting action to a select few. This matters because emissions come from many different sources, and leaving out major sectors could create loopholes that undermine progress. By covering the whole economy, governments show they are serious about systemic change, not piecemeal fixes. It also makes it easier to compare ambition across countries, since economywide targets are the most comprehensive and transparent benchmark for climate action.
In the current NDCs 3.0, 22 countries have adopted economywide targets that cover all major sectors and another 14 continue to focus only on partial or sector-specific reductions, leaving significant gaps in coverage.
Methane abatement commitments
Methane emissions are the second-biggest driver of warming, and cutting them offers faster near-term climate benefits than cutting only carbon dioxide emissions. Including explicit methane targets in NDCs is a strong signal of ambition and seriousness. Countries that single out methane by creating a specific target show they are prioritizing limiting emissions that accelerate global temperature rise in the short term, rather than vaguely committing to a broad greenhouse gas emissions reduction target. So far, only six countries have included specific methane reduction goals or policies in their NDCs 3.0.
Fossil fuel phaseout signals
The combustion of fossil fuels is the leading cause of climate change and transitioning away from these fuels is paramount for combating the climate crisis. Among the countries that still use coal, more than half mention plans to phase down unabated coal power, with six countries providing timelines for doing so. In their NDCs, Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Singapore, and the United Kingdom commit to stopping permits for new coal plants altogether. No NDC to date has set a quantified target for winding down oil and gas production. Removing or reducing fossil fuel subsidies is also largely absent: Only Australia, Canada, the Marshall Islands, and the U.K. include quantified goals or timelines for phasing them out. Taken together, the submissions point to gradual movement on coal but limited progress on oil and gas dependence.
Adaptation and resilience commitments
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is only part of the necessary response to climate change. Increasing community resilience to protect people from extreme weather, heat, rising sea levels and other impacts is also critical. Adaptation and resilience targets, such as strengthening infrastructure, safeguarding food systems, and protecting vulnerable communities, demonstrate that governments are planning holistically. Twenty-seven countries have included an adaptation goal in their NDC 3.0.
Conclusion
Since NDCs were first established, projections for global temperature rise have steadily decreased, suggesting that setting climate goals is an important and powerful step for driving climate action. The ability of NDCs to drive climate action makes them important, however they are only as meaningful as their implementation.
Take the United States’ NDC 3.0 as an example. Developed and submitted under President Joe Biden at the end of 2024, the goals outlined in the 2035 NDC have been abandoned at the federal level by the Trump administration. Although states and cities continue to implement the 2030 and 2035 NDCs to the extent that they are able, the lost ground in emissions reductions could translate into faster and higher global temperature rise, especially if other countries follow suit.
Therefore, it is critical that the remaining countries finalize and submit their NDCs 3.0 by November’s conference, where the discussion will focus on implementing these ambitious climate plans. This will be the first conference of the parties to take place since annual global temperature rise exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, illustrating the need for urgent climate action. Countries must not allow the absence of the United States to decrease their ambition. Instead, it is more important now than ever that the rest of the world charges ahead to deliver climate solutions the world is counting on.