The Senate compromise legislation is a stumble backward from the legislation passed by the House of Representatives on January 28. The compromise would create between 430,000 and 538,000 fewer jobs than the House-passed bill—a finding consistent with what other economists, including Paul Krugman, reported over the weekend.
Ben Nelson said on Saturday that the compromise “pares back $110 billion of spending that didn’t belong in the bill. We’ve trimmed the fat, fried the bacon, and milked the sacred cows.” In fact, the Senate cuts will reduce the stimulative nature of the act. The $40 billion cut from the Senate bill for state fiscal stabilization funds will mean that roughly 182,000 fewer jobs are created or saved as education and other public services are rolled back. Slashing the entire $19.5 billion school and higher education construction program will mean that, compared to the House bill, approximately 104,000 fewer jobs will be created or saved. Much of this burden will fall on women.
Cuts to Senate Recovery Bill Mean Fewer Jobs Created and Saved
| State |
Fewer jobs due to Senate cuts |
| Alabama |
8,420 – 10,002 fewer jobs |
| Alaska |
1,552 – 1,848 |
| Arizona |
10,211 – 12,376 |
| Arkansas |
4,457 – 5,449 |
| California |
50,095 – 63,294 |
| Colorado |
5,894 – 7,482 |
| Connecticut |
2,116 – 3,465 |
| Delaware |
1,434 – 1,747 |
| District of Columbia |
1,875 – 2,153 |
| Florida |
29,607 – 35,706 |
| Georgia |
16,724 – 19,988 |
| Hawaii |
2,174 – 2,639 |
| Idaho |
2,273 – 2,790 |
| Illinois |
19,284 – 23,866 |
| Indiana |
10,177 – 12,436 |
| Iowa |
3,537 – 4,563 |
| Kansas |
3,148 – 4,089 |
| Kentucky |
6,616 – 8,094 |
| Louisiana |
7,665 – 9,236 |
| Maine |
1,831 – 2,316 |
| Maryland |
3,980 – 5,949 |
| Massachusetts |
4,522 – 6,989 |
| Michigan |
18,249 – 21,887 |
| Minnesota |
6,055 – 7,942 |
| Mississippi |
5,715 – 6,754 |
| Missouri |
9,145 – 11,246 |
| Montana |
1,615 – 1,969 |
| Nebraska |
1,931 – 2,543 |
| Nevada |
4,460 – 5,330 |
| New Hampshire |
956 – 1,408 |
| New Jersey |
6,146 – 9,557 |
| New Mexico |
3,162 – 3,862 |
| New York |
30,671 – 38,644 |
| North Carolina |
13,937 – 17,207 |
| North Dakota |
1,047 – 1,295 |
| Ohio |
16,961 – 21,026 |
| Oklahoma |
5,465 – 6,695 |
| Oregon |
5,020 – 6,355 |
| Pennsylvania |
15,687 – 20,282 |
| Rhode Island |
1,908 – 2,354 |
| South Carolina |
7,225 – 8,785 |
| South Dakota |
1,273 – 1,557 |
| Tennessee |
1,0415 – 12,543 |
| Texas |
35,127 – 43,225 |
| Utah |
3,447 – 4,301 |
| Vermont |
968 – 1,218 |
| Virginia |
6,723 – 9,287 |
| Washington |
8,732 – 10,962 |
| West Virginia |
3,014 – 3,664 |
| Wisconsin |
6,232 – 8,177 |
| Wyoming |
914 – 1,122 |
Looking at how the Senate cuts affect states shows that 13 states will lose more than 10,000 jobs if the Senate compromise prevails instead of the House act. Texas, which lost 43,000 jobs in December alone, will see between 35,000 and 43,000 fewer jobs created or saved as a result of the Senate compromise. The range is based on the Congressional Budget Office’s low and high estimates of different multipliers for different lines in the recovery act.
More on the Recovery and Reinvestment Act:
Column: A Step Forward, a Stumble Back
Background brief: Recovery and Reinvestment 101
Interactive Maps: Recovery Beyond the Beltway
Infographic: The Stimulus: Four Reasons We Can’t Afford Not to Have One
Interactive: Design Your Own Stimulus Package