In their latest budget proposal, congressional Republicans put forward a plan to slash clean energy investments. While this may increase oil and gas industry profits, it would kill jobs and raise electricity bills for households and businesses throughout the country. Federal investments from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have unleashed private investment and job creation: Since the passage of the IRA in August 2022, about $600 billion has been invested in manufacturing and deployment of clean energy, clean vehicles, building electrification, and other clean technologies across the country. During this same time frame, clean energy projects have announced more than 117,000 jobs.
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Renewable energy is now the cheapest form of electricity, dominating energy growth last year—accounting for more than 90 percent of new generating capacity in the first nine months of 2024. But now, the Trump administration and the Republican-led Congress are creating uncertainty in clean tech and energy markets by planning to repeal 10-year investment commitments that businesses and households depend on for manufacturing, clean energy, home retrofit, and efficiency projects. This uncertainty is already causing some investors and businesses to pull back planned facilities. If Congress does repeal the clean energy tax credits, it will result in significant lost investment and jobs caused by the slowing of clean tech manufacturing and deployment. As shown by the data below, impacts are especially intense in specific states.
The electricity price impacts from repealing federal clean energy incentives are dramatic in many states, with five—Arizona, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wyoming—likely to see more than a $200 annual increase in electricity costs per household in 2026.
During a time when nationwide electric demand is forecasted to increase by more than 15 percent by 2029, decreasing electric generation from renewable energy would result in higher electricity prices for Americans. Estimates suggest repealing technology-neutral energy tax incentives would skyrocket electricity prices by nearly 10 percent for businesses throughout the country by next year, with electricity prices for American homes also increasing by nearly 7 percent. The electricity price impacts from repealing federal clean energy incentives are dramatic in many states, with five—Arizona, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Wyoming—likely to see more than a $200 annual increase in electricity costs per household in 2026. Nearly half of states are expected to see double-digit percentage increases in commercial and industrial electricity prices, which can strain small businesses and manufacturing facilities alike. The tables below show the expected price hikes and financial losses for each of the Lower 48 states.
Some states would suffer especially large financial losses from federal disinvestment in clean energy, as the distribution of clean tech supply chains, manufacturing, and deployment all vary by state. Based on data from Rhodium Group’s Clean Investment Monitor, 16 states have each benefited from more than $5 billion in private investment since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, with Texas leading at more than $50 billion invested so far and $130 billion still outstanding. Companies are actively spending money to bring new projects online; yet in some states, such as Washington, North Dakota, and Louisiana, more than 90 percent of the announced investments remains unspent. That leaves local spending and jobs at risk should federal investment commitments fall through. One analysis finds that repeal of the clean energy tax credits would harm the United States through offshoring, lost jobs, and lost tax revenue—leading to up to $50 billion in lost exports. On jobs specifically, analysis from Energy Innovation shows that repealing the clean energy tax credits would result in 1 million fewer jobs in 2030, compared with a “business as usual” scenario.
Republicans have a demonstrated track record of attempting to repeal IRA clean energy provisions. Yet some congressional Republicans seem aware of the risks to their districts: Last week, 21 House Republicans wrote a letter calling attention to the higher utility bills, lower private investment, and shuttered facilities that their districts could face if Congress were to weaken or eliminate the energy tax credits. It remains to be seen whether these practical, anti-inflation, pro-business, and pro-worker considerations and constituent opposition can prevail and preserve the clean energy investments, or if there will be a vote along party lines to give tax cuts to the wealthy at the cost of lost jobs and higher electricity prices.
The full dataset is available for download here.
The authors would like to thank Lucero Marquez, Akshay Thyagarajan, Sam Ricketts, Jerry Parshall, and Colin Seeberger of the Center for American Progress, as well as Hannah Hess of Rhodium Group, for their contributions to this analysis. The views expressed are solely attributable to the authors.