2024 Elections and the Future of Global Climate Ambition

2024 represents a watershed moment in world politics, with elections in at least 76 countries¹ across the globe poised to influence the future of climate action on an unprecedented scale. As nearly half of the world’s population² has gone or will head to the polls this year, the outcomes of these elections will be critical—not just for choosing new leaders, but for shaping the trajectory of the planet’s future. This year is set to be the warmest on record,³ and as the world grapples with unprecedented heat waves,⁴ severe droughts,⁵ and increasingly frequent natural disasters,⁶ the urgency of ambitious climate action has never been more apparent. The choices made in this year’s elections will either catalyze the transition to a sustainable future or entrench existing practices that exacerbate these climate disasters.

From Indonesia’s shifting environmental policies under a new president⁷ to Mexico’s landmark election resulting in its first female president and its first with a climate background,⁸ the global political landscape is poised for significant change, and the results of these elections will reverberate across borders. Among the elections taking place this year, those highlighted in this report will significantly influence the trajectory of global climate action and lead either to renewed ambition or away from crucial progress. The 2024 elections worldwide are not merely political events; they are decisive moments that will shape the planet’s climate future and determine the effectiveness of a collective response to this existential crisis.

This report summarizes the results of critical global elections in 2024 and analyses their immediate and potential impacts on climate action, both within individual countries and on the international stage. It provides an overview of how electoral outcomes have influenced national environmental policies and strategies. By examining these pivotal elections and their repercussions, this report highlights how political shifts are reshaping the landscape of global climate action and what this means for a collective ability to address the climate emergency. While some election results point to the formation of a more progressive climate agenda, economic pressures and political fragmentation in various regions threaten the ability to sustain ambitious environmental goals. The imminent U.S. election will have significant implications, determining whether these global efforts gain momentum or face new obstacles.

The following 2024 election results could mark a pivotal moment for global climate ambition and shape the planet’s climate future.

Indonesia

In February, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto emerged victorious⁹ in the presidential election despite his controversial past, which includes allegations of human rights abuses.¹⁰ A former army general, Subianto has a long and contentious history¹¹ in Indonesia’s military and political scene, notably linked to tortures and disappearances that took place in the late 1990s. The election results, which saw Subianto win with 58 percent¹² of the vote, faced allegations of fraud and state interference from his rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, who challenged his election win. However, on April 22, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court rejected these challenges,¹³ citing no evidence of improper influence. Subianto’s victory could represent a significant shift in Indonesian climate policy and has raised concerns¹⁴about the future of the country’s environmental commitments. Indonesia plays a pivotal role in global climate dynamics as a large exporter of coal¹⁵ and nickel,¹⁶ a critical mineral, while its peatlands—including those that form the wetland-like floor of Indonesia’s rainforests—serve as some of the largest carbon sinks¹⁷ in the world.

One of Subianto’s key climate-related promises is to gradually phase out the use of coal,¹⁸ a significant move for the world’s largest exporter¹⁹ of the dirtiest fossil fuel.²⁰ However, his administration’s simultaneous push to bolster domestic nickel processing²¹ introduces a complex dynamic. Nickel, a critical component of electric batteries,²² has become a focal point²³ for Indonesia’s economic strategy. Subianto has advocated for continuing a ban on nickel exports²⁴ to encourage local processing and value-added industries. While this policy aims to capture more economic value from Indonesia’s rich mineral resources, nickel mining and processing have raised serious environmental and social concerns,²⁵ including pollution and rights violations against Indigenous communities, as reported by Climate Rights International.²⁶

The Indonesian government’s construction of new coal-fired power plants²⁷ to support the energy demands of nickel processing threatens to undermine the progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These power plants are expected to emit substantial amounts of carbon dioxide, potentially offsetting any benefits²⁸ from transitioning to renewable energy in other sectors.

Adding to the complexity, Subianto’s administration supports expanding biofuel production, recently announcing plans to implement mandatory 50 percent palm-oil-based biodiesel²⁹ blending by early 2025. Biofuels have been promoted as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels, but their production may lead to extensive deforestation,³⁰ particularly in Indonesia’s rainforests. This deforestation would contribute to habitat loss and biodiversity decline³¹ and undermine the country’s carbon sequestration³² capabilities, reversing recent gains³³ in forest protection made under Subianto’s predecessor, Joko Widodo. Widodo’s administration made notable strides in environmental protection,³⁴ including efforts to curb deforestation by implementing a moratorium on new licenses for palm oil and pulp companies.³⁵ Despite some projects³⁶ that conflicted with these policies, Widodo’s tenure was marked by a commitment to sustainability³⁷ and climate action on the international stage.

The United States, under President Joe Biden, congratulated³⁸ Subianto and suggested future cooperation, illuminating the growing strategic importance of Indonesia’s nickel resources in global supply chains for electric vehicles. This collaboration is crucial given Indonesia’s role as a critical ally in the Indo-Pacific, a region of great strategic importance³⁹ for global security and economic stability. The U.S. federal government views Indonesia as a significant partner⁴⁰ in maintaining regional balance and countering influence from other major powers, underscored by the recent Defense Cooperation Agreement⁴¹ signed at the end of 2023. However, in order to cooperate, leaders in the United States and Indonesia must navigate the complex interplay of Subianto’s new policies and Indonesia’s broader environmental impact. As Subianto prepares to assume office, environmentalists and climate advocates are concerned about potential rollbacks of progress made under Widodo. This shift could not only weaken Indonesia’s role in global climate efforts, but also set a precedent for other nations balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability.

South Africa

South Africa’s general National Assembly elections held in May marked a historic shift as the African National Congress (ANC) lost its outright majority⁴² for the first time in 30 years. The ANC won only 159 out of 400 seats, a significant difference from the 2019 elections, when they won 230 seats. This dramatic change led to the formation of a coalition-led government known as the government of national unity⁴³ headed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, a strong proponent of climate action⁴⁴ who will serve a second term⁴⁵ as president under this new coalition framework.

This political shift takes place against the backdrop of severe environmental and energy challenges. Climate change impacts are pronounced, with rising temperatures⁴⁶ and recurring flash floods⁴⁷ across the country. South Africa has faced critical water shortages, narrowly avoiding a “Day Zero”⁴⁸ scenario in Cape Town in 2018 when the city’s water supply was projected to run out. The country has long grappled with the issue of load shedding,⁴⁹ the implementation of rolling blackouts⁵⁰ to manage the electricity grid due to old and poorly maintained power stations⁵¹ that struggle to meet demand. In the lead-up to and following the election, efforts to tackle load shedding have intensified,⁵² with some progress made⁵³ in reducing the frequency and duration of outages, signaling a potential shift toward greater energy stability.

Ramaphosa’s presidency has been marked by his commitment to climate action and a transition away from coal. One of his significant achievements was brokering South Africa’s entry into the first Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP),⁵⁴ an international initiative to support countries transitioning from coal and other fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources. The JETP is an agreement⁵⁵between South Africa, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the European Union to accelerate the decarbonizing of South Africa’s economy and the decommissioning of its coal-fired power plants. The United States supported the creation of the JETP by pledging more than $1 billion⁵⁶from government agencies,⁵⁷ including the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. (DFC), the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and the U.S. Department of State, to incentivize large-scale private sector investment and provide technical assistance to facilitate South Africa’s energy transition. However, the partnership has faced criticism⁵⁸ for potentially exacerbating economic inequalities and benefiting international corporations at the expense of local communities, raising concerns about whether it will deliver a truly equitable transition.

As he begins his second term, Ramaphosa is poised to press forward with his administration’s climate agenda. A notable milestone is the recent signing of the Climate Change Act,⁵⁹ which provides the first legal framework⁶⁰ in South Africa for addressing climate change. This landmark legislation sets ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate resilience, setting South Africa on a path to fulfill its commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement.⁶¹ The new framework mandates establishing emissions targets for key high-emission sectors—including agriculture, transport, and the economy—with each responsible minister required to implement strategies to meet these goals.

South African energy policy is at a critical juncture. The appointment of Kgosientsho Ramokgopa as minister of electricity and energy⁶² signals a new era of “ultra-aggressive” action⁶³ on renewable energy, with Ramokgopa planning to expand renewable capacity through a “mega bid window”⁶⁴ for large-scale projects and addressing past procurement challenges to enhance local participation⁶⁵ and investment. As of 2023, South Africa remains one of the world’s top 15 greenhouse gas emitters,⁶⁶ mainly due to its coal dependency, and the move toward renewable energy is a crucial step in reducing the country’s carbon footprint and addressing its energy challenges.

This shift aligns with the broader regional goals emphasized at the recent Africa Climate Summit,⁶⁷ where African leaders called for urgent action⁶⁸ to decarbonize the global economy and advocated for a new financing mechanism to support climate resilience and sustainable development. The summit’s Nairobi Declaration⁶⁹ highlighted Africa’s disproportionate vulnerability to climate change impacts and underscored the need for investment to harness the continent’s natural assets for low-carbon growth. However, the expansion of renewable energy comes with its challenges. South Africa’s recent experience with delaying the decommissioning⁷⁰ of three of its older coal-fired power stations to 2030 highlights the complexities of transitioning from coal. Ramokgopa’s push for renewable energy must navigate these existing infrastructure and policy issues to achieve meaningful progress.

Mexico 

Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s newly elected president, made history⁷¹ as the first woman to hold the office, winning June’s election in a landslide by securing between 58.3 percent and 60.7 percent of the vote—the highest percentage⁷²in Mexico’s democratic history. An environmental engineer by training, Sheinbaum has a strong background in climate issues. She has contributed to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports⁷³ and, during her tenure as Mexico City’s mayor, led significant green initiatives, including expanding solar power⁷⁴ and electrifying public transport routes.⁷⁵

As she steps into the presidency, Sheinbaum faces the challenge of transforming Mexico’s energy landscape amid substantial dependence on fossil fuels.⁷⁶While her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), did make ambitious climate commitments—notably raising Mexico’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) from 22 percent to a 35 percent reduction in emissions by 2030⁷⁷ and pledging to increase Mexico’s combined wind, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectric capacity to 40 gigawatts (GW) by 2030⁷⁸—these commitments were not matched by concrete policy action. In fact, the AMLO administration backslid on the climate and energy transition and prioritized fossil fuel production,⁷⁹ leading to a dramatic rise in natural gas imports from the United States, which accounted for 69 percent of Mexico’s gas supply in 2022.⁸⁰ As of 2023, oil and natural gas comprise 84 percent⁸¹ of the country’s energy supply, highlighting a significant gap between Mexico’s climate promises and its energy policies.

In this context, Sheinbaum’s administration will need to navigate the complex U.S.-Mexico relationship, which is deeply intertwined with trade and environmental issues. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,⁸² effective as of July 1, 2020, replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and introduced more enforceable environmental provisions addressing illegal fishing, wildlife trafficking, and air quality. However, unresolved trade disputes, particularly concerning energy regulations, complicate this relationship. Recently, Mexico’s Senate passed a constitutional amendment⁸³ to give the state-owned Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) dispatch priority in electricity generation, ensuring that the CFE’s power plants are favored over private or foreign competitors even if they are more expensive. Sheinbaum’s Morena party aims for the CFE to control at least 54 percent of power generation,⁸⁴ leaving only 46 percent to private companies. This signals a continuation of AMLO policies to strengthen state control over the energy market. The finalization of this amendment hinges on approval from a majority of state legislatures.

In addition to reclassifying the CFE and Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) as “public state companies,” a contentious aspect of the reform is the proposal to remove the constitutional obligation⁸⁵ for the state and the CFE to generate clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Eliminating this requirement would contradict Mexico’s climate commitments and could hinder its energy transition. Opposition lawmakers warn that removing the clause would also dramatically impair Mexico’s ability to meet its climate goals, which include Sheinbaum’s pledge for renewable energy to supply 45 percent of the country’s electricity by 2030.⁸⁶ Meanwhile, as of August 2024, Mexico continues to rely heavily on U.S. natural gas imports, which stand at approximately 7 billion cubic feet per day.⁸⁷ Balancing these trade and regulatory challenges with effective climate and energy policies will be essential for managing this critical partnership, especially as Mexico seeks to reconcile its constitutional reforms with its international climate commitments.

Despite these challenges, Sheinbaum’s environmental credentials and campaign promises are encouraging. She has pledged to invest $13.6 billion⁸⁸ in expanding renewable energy sources such as wind and solar through 2030 and plans to modernize five of the country’s hydroelectric plants. However, her ongoing support for fossil fuel projects such as the Olmeca oil refinery⁸⁹ reflects her efforts to balance competing interests rather than a complete departure from her predecessor’s policies. This approach is partly driven by the need to maintain political support from AMLO’s base, including more radical factions within Morena.

Nonetheless, there are promising signals of a shift. Sheinbaum has announced the country’s first-ever limit on oil production⁹⁰—1.8 million barrels per day, down from AMLO’s 2018 target of 2.4 million⁹¹—and appointed Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, an energy expert who emphasized renewables⁹² in his first public remarks, to head Pemex. Additionally, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard recently underscored the urgent need for private investment in renewable energy,⁹³ reinforcing the new administration’s openness to scaling up clean energy initiatives. The success of Sheinbaum’s climate record will hinge on her ability to balance her environmental expertise with the realities of Mexico’s current energy policies. Her commitment will be tested by how she navigates the constitutional reforms and implements new operational regulations to align with climate goals. Mexico’s upcoming 2025–2035 NDC and the Special Program on Climate Change⁹⁴ will be crucial indicators of her administration’s dedication. If these frameworks genuinely prioritize emissions reduction and renewable energy expansion, Mexico could not only address its climate challenges but also position itself as a leader in regional climate action.

India

Narendra Modi’s third term⁹⁵ as prime minister of India ushers in a coalition government for the first time since he first took office in 2014. While Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party managed to secure another term in June, it fell short of the single-party supermajority it had hoped for, with the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA)—composed of more than 20 parties—performing better than expected.⁹⁶ This shift marks a significant change from the previous era of single-party dominance and brings with it opportunities and challenges, especially in the realm of renewable energy. Under Modi’s leadership, India has made notable strides in its energy transition, driven by ambitious targets and a marked reduction in oil and gas subsidies.⁹⁷However, the simultaneous expansion of coal use,⁹⁸ driven by economic and political considerations, remains a significant hurdle.

India, home to more than 1.4 billion people,⁹⁹ faces immense climate challenges. As the world’s most populous country and one of the most vulnerable to climate hazards,¹⁰⁰ the impacts of extreme heat¹⁰¹ and flooding¹⁰² are often acutely felt by communities already struggling with poverty and limited resources. The urgency to address climate-related issues is glaring, as heat waves increasingly disrupt public life and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations.¹⁰³Intensified heat waves and floods exacerbate existing hardships for these communities, underscoring the critical need for targeted climate adaptation and resilience measures. This summer, severe heat waves resulted in fatalities that directly affected election processes, with at least 33 people,¹⁰⁴ including poll workers on duty, dying due to heat-related complications. Rising temperatures are driving up demand for air conditioning—with projections showing that half of Indian households will have air conditioning by 2035¹⁰⁵—leading to a ninefold increase in electricity demand. To meet the projected power demand of 400 GW by fiscal year 2032, India’s power generation capacity must nearly double to 900 GW,¹⁰⁶ but achieving energy security in this context is complex. With only 44 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage planned by 2032—192 GWh short of its National Electricity Plan target¹⁰⁷—India increasingly relies on coal to provide round-the-clock power, highlighting the ongoing tension between development needs and the transition to renewable energy.

Modi’s administration has set multiple renewable energy targets, which commit to decarbonizing half of India’s energy system by 2030,¹⁰⁸ achieving net-zero emissions by 2070,¹⁰⁹ and installing 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030.¹¹⁰ However, the synchronic expansion of coal¹¹¹ raises serious concerns about the government’s commitment to truly sustainable practices. While India’s renewable energy ambitions create potential for increased international collaboration, particularly with the United States in green trade,¹¹² its continued reliance on coal undermines these efforts. The government’s push for coal has increased power-sector emissions¹¹³ as demand for electricity rises with the heat.

India’s energy and environment relationship with the United States can potentially play a pivotal role in shaping its climate future. Both nations have expressed a commitment¹¹⁴ to enhancing cooperation on green technologies and climate action. The U.S. federal government has shown interest in partnering with India on renewable energy projects, including through significant investments such as the $500 million¹¹⁵ loan from the DFC to support the new First Solar manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu. This facility aims to diversify the solar supply chain and create jobs, and the U.S. investment reflects a deepened collaboration that could bolster India’s renewable energy ambitions and help mitigate its ongoing coal reliance. However, this partnership will need to effectively address the tension between advancing clean energy goals and the practical demands of an expanding economy, especially as India grapples with the consequences of climate change on its vulnerable population.

As India navigates these challenges, Modi’s ability to balance the needs of the country’s vast population with effective climate action will be crucial. The first union budget of this coalition government reaffirmed that climate change and the green transition remain critical concerns. It included significant announcements¹¹⁶such as the development of a taxonomy for climate finance¹¹⁷ and a $62.5 billion scheme to provide up to 300 units of free power to 10 million households through rooftop solar.¹¹⁸ Additionally, a proposed pumped storage policy¹¹⁹ would aim to improve electricity storage and facilitate the integration of renewables into India’s energy mix. While these measures reflect a commitment to addressing climate issues, the budget also highlights the low ceiling of ambition for future policies, and power generation and battery storage still fall short. Although there are continued pushes¹²⁰ toward nuclear energy, hydrogen, and mineral security, there is cautious optimism regarding the coalition government’s capacity to enact bolder climate policies in the coming years. The years ahead will be a litmus test for India’s climate leadership, with the potential for significant strides in renewable energy and climate resilience if managed effectively.

European Union

The European Parliament elections¹²¹ held in early June resulted in significant gains for far-right parties, although centrist factions maintained a majority with just over 400 seats out of 720.¹²² The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) now holds 26.1 percent of the seats, while the center-left Socialists and Democrats account for 18.9 percent. The hard-right Conservatives and Reformists secured 10.8 percent of the seats. The Green Party suffered major losses, dropping 18 seats to comprise only 7.4 percent of the Parliament. This power shift indicates a realignment of EU climate policy priorities, among others, and highlights voter fatigue with climate policies,¹²³ reflecting a broader discontent with the current political landscape. The rise of far-right parties across the European Union is closely linked to a backlash against climate policies,¹²⁴ revealing a complex interplay between economic insecurity and political extremism.

As climate change becomes an increasingly pressing issue, the far right has capitalized on public concerns about the economic impacts of green policies, framing them as detrimental to national sovereignty. This narrative has resonated with voters facing rising living costs and economic uncertainty, allowing far-right parties to gain traction. As a regulatory powerhouse, the European Union sets environmental standards and policies that member states adopt, leading some to perceive these regulations as encroachments on their national autonomy. By emphasizing the economic costs of green policies, the far right taps into sentiments of vulnerability and frustration among citizens, positioning itself as a defender of national interests against what they portray as regulatory overreach. In Germany, for instance, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been vocal in opposing the government’s climate and energy policies,¹²⁵ portraying them as threats to economic stability and prosperity. The AfD claims that the transition to renewable energy will impoverish citizens, with party leaders likening initiatives such as converting home heating systems to a “heating massacre.”¹²⁶ Their rejection of climate protection measures is grounded in a broader skepticism about human-caused climate change. By capitalizing on discontent, the AfD galvanizes support for its agenda while demonstrating how climate policies can be exploited by extremist factions, thereby impeding progress on climate action.

As far-right parties gain power through parliamentary seats and the EPP expresses growing skepticism toward aggressive environmental measures, the European Union’s climate strategy could be threatened. The European Union has long positioned itself as a leader in global climate action, with the European Commission’s (EC) European Green Deal¹²⁷ being a cornerstone of this effort. Launched in January 2020¹²⁸ under Ursula von der Leyen’s commission, the Green Deal aims to make Europe the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050.¹²⁹ It includes ambitious measures such as the Fit for 55¹³⁰package, which commits to a 55 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, expands the emissions trading system, and introduces new standards across sectors. Additionally, von der Leyen, representing the Christian Democrats within the EPP, has rebranded green initiatives as industrial policies¹³¹ to address economic concerns, attracting some support. However, rising concerns about the costs of the transition—exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, which has driven up energy prices¹³²—along with inflation, have led to pushback from some member states.¹³³ Financial and economic worries have increasingly taken precedence among voters, complicating the European Union’s climate agenda.

Despite these challenges, many of the European Union’s green policies are firmly established, though their effective implementation will likely face obstacles. As Europe faces multiple overlapping crises¹³⁴—including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,¹³⁵ recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic,¹³⁶ cost of living concerns,¹³⁷ and more¹³⁸—it is crucial for policymakers to recognize and communicate to the public that a successful green transition can address these very issues. Investing in renewable energy and sustainable practices not only mitigates the impacts of climate change but also enhances energy security, creates jobs, and stimulates economic growth. Prioritizing climate action can lead to long-term resilience,¹³⁹ reducing vulnerability to future shocks and fostering innovation in emerging sectors.

While the recent election results suggest that achieving the European Union’s climate goals may become increasingly complicated due to political resistance and economic pressures, the EC’s leadership continues to forge a climate-forward path. By reframing the green transition as a solution to current crises rather than an obstacle, EU policymakers can rally support for ambitious climate initiatives that align with environmental and economic objectives.

France

The New Popular Front (NFP)—a left-wing alliance that champions carbon neutrality and renewable energy¹⁴⁰—secured the most seats¹⁴¹ in France’s parliamentary elections, but the election resulted in a deadlocked Parliament,¹⁴²leading President Emmanuel Macron to announce a new center-right government.¹⁴³ Macron called for the new French parliamentary elections after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party made notable gains¹⁴⁴ in the European parliamentary elections earlier in the summer. This surprising move by Macron was an effort to regain political control and curb Le Pen’s rising influence.

Despite leading in the first round¹⁴⁵ of the French parliamentary elections, the RN fell short in the second round, largely due to the left’sstrategic withdrawals in certain districts where they faced opposition from Macron’s centrists, allowing the left and center parties to consolidate support against the RN.¹⁴⁶ The Green Party’s Marine Tondelier¹⁴⁷ emerged as a strong voice for social and environmental justice, emphasizing the need for unity among progressive factions. Ultimately, while the left-wing coalition won the most seats in Parliament, it failed to secure an overall majority.¹⁴⁸

The fragmented nature of the new French Parliament allowed Macron to reject the NFP’s candidate for prime minister and instead appoint Michel Barnier¹⁴⁹ from the right-wing Les Républicains party, which trailed at 5.41 percent of the vote¹⁵⁰ in the second round. This decision highlights the challenges of forming a cohesive government and poses significant obstacles to implementing ambitious climate policies.

Under Macron’s leadership, France adopted the Energy and Climate Law¹⁵¹ in 2019, marking a significant milestone in the country’s environmental policy. This legislation established a comprehensive framework to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, aligning with global climate commitments¹⁵² under the Paris Agreement. In the European Union’s 2023 NDC update, France committed to a target of a 47.5 percent¹⁵³ reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and the NFP has further pledged to reduce emissions by 55 percent compared with 1990 levels by 2030¹⁵⁴ in its manifesto.

Despite these commitments, France has made limited progress on its climate goals, partly due to the backlash from the yellow vest protests, a movement prompted by Macron’s announcement of a green tax on fuel.¹⁵⁵ Many citizens felt that climate policies, such as increased fuel taxes, disproportionately affected lower-income and rural populations, creating a significant divide between environmental initiatives and public sentiment. The aftermath of these protests has left policymakers in a difficult position: The government must navigate a landscape marked by skepticism and resistance from segments of the population who fear the economic consequences of rapid decarbonization.

Following Prime Minister Barnier’s speech in early October,¹⁵⁶ there is renewed focus on environmental issues, signaling some continuity with climate efforts from the previous government. However, the climate community remains cautious due to a highly constrained budget and the reshuffling of ministerial portfolios. For example, Barnier’s government has eliminated a distinct ministerial position for biodiversity,¹⁵⁷ which some see as sidelining climate efforts. While France will continue to assert itself as a leader in global climate action, political gridlock and budgetary constraints may limit the extent of its ambition.

United Kingdom

In the recent U.K. general elections, the Labour Party achieved a decisive landslide victory,¹⁵⁸ ending 14 years of Conservative rule with a commanding majority of 412 seats in the 650-seat Parliament. This overwhelming win positions Labour, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to significantly reshape the country’s climate and energy landscape. Labour’s ambitious vision includes transforming Britain into a “clean energy superpower,”¹⁵⁹ focusing on reducing energy costs, enhancing energy independence, and increasing wind and solar capacities.

The election results reflect a dramatic shift in British politics. The Conservative Party, which had dominated for more than a decade, saw its representation plummet from 365 seats in 2019 to just 121 in 2024.¹⁶⁰ Labour’s popular vote surged, increasing from about 200 seats¹⁶¹ in 2019 to 412 this cycle. Additionally, the centrist Liberal Democrats made significant gains, and Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform UK party, known for its anti-immigration stance, secured five seats and more than 4 million votes.¹⁶² By competing against Conservative members of Parliament and splintering their vote, Reform UK contributed to Labour’s margins and indicates a broader shift away from a traditional two-party system. With a Labour Party victory, the United Kingdom is poised to introduce more climate-forward policies.

Labour’s ambitious plans to transform Britain into a “clean energy superpower” face financial hurdles following the decision to row back on the 28 billion-pound annual investment pledge for green industries.¹⁶³ The original target, a cornerstone of Labour’s green agenda, was scaled back amid concerns over economic outlook, borrowing costs, and fiscal responsibility highlighted by pressure from Conservatives, businesses, and right-wing media. Starmer announced the party would focus on a smaller investment amount, approximately 5 billion pounds per year.

Despite this adjustment, Labour’s climate goals remain significant. Labour’s plans include setting ambitious targets for decarbonizing the grid by 2030¹⁶⁴ and introducing increased taxes on oil and gas companies¹⁶⁵ to fund renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives. The biggest challenge lies in reducing reliance on gas, which supplied 33 percent of the U.K.’s electricity in 2023.¹⁶⁶ While Labour’s manifesto does not include a phasedown plan¹⁶⁷ for existing gas-fired plants, the party has pledged 7.3 billion pounds¹⁶⁸ in scaling up low-carbon industries over the next Parliament, and on September 30, the U.K. became the first G7 country to phase out all of its coal power.¹⁶⁹

These ambitious plans will demand significant legislative adjustments and overcoming potential opposition, and the weakened investment commitment raises questions about where additional funding will come from to meet the green mission. Nonetheless, Labour’s landslide victory provides a strong mandate to push forward its green agenda.

With less than three months remaining in the year, elections that will influence how the world responds to climate change—particularly the fast-approaching U.S. election—are still set to take place. The state of climate action is at a critical juncture, with the potential to either advance toward a more sustainable future or falter, depending on the political will and decisions made by newly elected leaders.

As the second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses globally,¹⁷⁰ the United States’ role in climate action is paramount. The United States has the potential to catalyze worldwide climate efforts and influence the effectiveness of global climate agreements. The outcome of the U.S. election will be pivotal in determining the level of engagement and leadership that it provides.

Countries such as Mexico, India, and South Africa have shown promising increases in climate ambition independent of U.S. influence. Their willingness to engage with the United States could enhance these efforts, but their progress may continue regardless. In contrast, places where advancing climate ambition may be more challenging—such as France, Indonesia, and the European Union—will benefit from U.S. collaboration. Ultimately, next week’s outcome will be climactic: It has the potential to either bolster global climate efforts through robust U.S. leadership or risk undermining progress and stalling critical global climate action if that leadership is lacking.

As the world faces unprecedented environmental crises—record-breaking temperatures, catastrophic flooding, and severe natural disasters—the need for immediate and ambitious climate policies has never been more dire. While some election results signal a shift toward a more progressive climate agenda, economic and political divides risk undermining the momentum needed to uphold ambitious climate targets. The choices these policies reflect are not merely political; they are a matter of life and death for countless communities and ecosystems worldwide. With each result, the world either inches closer to averting the worst impacts of climate change or drifts further into a future of devastating consequences. The stakes could not be higher: The policies adopted by these global partners will determine whether key nations seize the opportunity to accelerate global climate action or falter, risking irreversible damage.

The author would like to thank Ashley Orlet for her research support as well as Courtney Federico, Frances Colón, Allison McManus, Robert Benson, Michael Clark, Anne Griffin, Jorge Villarreal, Prerna Bountra, Catherine Pollack, Chloe Dudley, and Harry Quilter-Pinner for their feedback on this report.