U.S. President Donald Trump has now given Russia less than two weeks, starting July 29, to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine—or face sweeping sanctions and tariffs on its oil exports and energy markets. At the same time, he imposed a sharp 25 percent tariff on Indian imports, effective August 1, with additional, if yet unspecified, penalties for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian energy and arms.
Yet these half measures are simply too weak to have an effect on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculus. Only decisive, sustained pressure on Moscow can force meaningful negotiations. That means hitting Russia hard these next two weeks, with immediate weapons deliveries for Ukraine and new, tougher sanctions focused on the energy sector. Moscow will negotiate seriously only when it faces real costs for prolonging the fight.
Trump promised that he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine in 24 hours. Instead, the war has only grown deadlier and more destructive. Russia’s assault is no longer just a territorial grab; it has become a campaign of industrialized drone warfare, designed to break Ukraine’s air defenses, terrorize civilians, and exhaust Western resolve. Ukrainian cities endure nightly onslaughts: hundreds of drone strikes, missile barrages, and mounting civilian casualties. On the front lines in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, Ukrainian soldiers wage grinding, attritional battles, straining every resource to hold the line.
The stakes demand urgency. Unless Washington changes course, this war could stretch into another decade. Russia’s overwhelming drone assault collides with a Congress skeptical of additional aid, European allies under hybrid attack, and a Kremlin betting that Western delay will amount to Russian victory.
Progress without real leverage
Recent weeks have produced developments that appear encouraging for Ukraine. Germany has agreed to acquire U.S.-made Patriot batteries and donate them to Kyiv. Norway and the Netherlands, meanwhile, have secured funding for additional systems, with talks ongoing to finance up to seven batteries. On paper, these moves look like significant progress, and any step that strengthens Ukraine’s defenses deserves recognition. But the substance is far thinner than the headlines suggest. The Patriot systems are purchases, not donations—meaning there will be months of procurement delays and administrative friction before they make any battlefield impact.
Trump’s two‑week ultimatum to Putin projects a tougher posture, promising sweeping sanctions and the threat of secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. That kind of pressure is most welcome. But beneath the headlines, the Kremlin swiftly dismissed the move as “theatrical,” and critics note the importance of effective enforcement: Here, the devil really is in the details. Most recently, the Trump administration layered a 25 percent tariff on Indian exports, citing New Delhi’s energy and arms ties to Moscow. In theory, these tariffs should raise the cost of buying Russian oil and thereby reduce Russia’s revenue. In practice, without allied alignment or strong enforcement, India can absorb the cost or pivot to shadow suppliers, leaving Moscow’s cash flow intact.
If the Trump administration genuinely intends to dent Russia’s energy income, it must transform rhetoric into focused strategy. That means tying new penalties to measurable benchmarks, such as verified reductions in energy purchases; pursuing multilateral coordination, so that buyers face uniform pressure; and working with Congress to pass legislation. Only with benchmarks, rigorous enforcement, and legal authority can sweeping threats become credible and begin to truly undermine Moscow’s finances, rather than merely stir headlines.
Western promises risk becoming little more than background noise in a war Moscow is relentlessly shaping to its advantage.
Even NATO’s recent pledge to reach 5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) defense spending by 2035, though symbolically important, means little for Ukraine’s survival this year. European political divisions still run deep: Germany continues to debate where and how to allocate its defense funds, while Hungary and Slovakia threaten to obstruct European aid for Ukraine in their ongoing gambit to extract rule-of-law concessions from Brussels.
Without immediate weapons deliveries, enforceable energy sanctions, and allied coordination, these gestures amount to little more than performance. Every week lost to procurement timelines or political wrangling is a week in which Russia fortifies positions, adapts its tactics, and grinds down Ukraine’s defenses. Without decisive steps to close this gap now, Western promises risk becoming little more than background noise in a war Moscow is relentlessly shaping to its advantage.
Washington’s hesitation is a gift to Putin
The United States has the means to change the course of the war, yet its pattern of delay and half measures undermines both European deterrence and allied confidence. In late June, the Pentagon turned back cargo planes carrying air‑defense interceptors bound for Europe, just as Russian drone salvos spiked. Systems like ATACMS, a precision-guided surface-to-air missile, have yet to be delivered under the Trump administration. Ukraine cannot reach Russian logistics hubs without these strike options. Beyond ATACMS, the United States could immediately send Patriot and NASAMS batteries, Stinger and Hellfire missiles, 155 mm artillery shells, and surplus air-defense interceptors already in U.S. stockpiles—deliveries that require no new purchase agreements and could arrive within days if authorized. These weapons would rapidly strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend its skies and strike Russian logistics nodes, shifting the battlefield balance far more effectively than allied purchases or symbolic tariffs and putting real pressure on Moscow now.
Russia has responded to the Trump administration’s delays accordingly. On July 3 and 4, it launched the largest combined drone and missile strike of the war, targeting Kyiv in what analysts described as the most destructive attack since 2022. The results have been nothing short of sheer terror for Ukrainians. On July 8 alone, Moscow unleashed more than 700 drones in a single night—a war record. Analysts now ominously warn this total could soon exceed 2,000 per night. The aerial payload is massive: 2,800 to 3,000 tons of high explosives grinding down infrastructure and forcing impossible choices over which cities to protect.
Washington must grasp this core point: The war can end, but only if the United States creates the conditions for Ukraine to punish the aggressor.
Yet Ukraine is not waiting for permission. Even as Washington dithers, Kyiv has shown the will and creativity to strike back. On June 1, in Operation Spiderweb, Ukrainian forces launched a covert drone strike on five Russian air bases, using trucks to send 117 drones deep into Russia. The mission disabled more than 10 strategic bombers, according to U.S. and Ukrainian reports. It remains Ukraine’s largest strike inside Russia and underscores Kyiv’s ability to adapt and retaliate.
More broadly, it proves that Ukraine can make Russia pay—and with real support, Ukraine can be put into a better negotiating position. Washington must grasp this core point: The war can end, but only if the United States creates the conditions for Ukraine to punish the aggressor.
What Trump must do now
The time for symbolic gestures is over. Genuine security is not built on symbolism; it is built on credible, immediate action. Accordingly, the Trump administration should take the following steps now:
- Deliver long‑range strike systems: Trump should authorize ATACMS or equivalent long-range precision-strike capabilities. Beyond ATACMS, the United States could immediately send Patriot and NASAMS batteries, Stinger and Hellfire missiles, 155 mm artillery shells, and surplus air‑defense interceptors already in U.S. stockpiles. Kyiv must be able to strike Russian logistics, command-and-control, and supply lines. Security lives in the vulnerabilities you threaten, not the threats you merely speak.
- Enforce real sanctions pressure: Building on the limited tariffs already announced, the Trump administration should immediately impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, including those navigating around the G7 price cap—a policy that limits the price of Russian seaborne crude to $60 per barrel. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already warned China, Russia’s largest oil customer, of potential tariffs under pending legislation empowering the president to act. These sanctions should extend to third-party logistics firms, brokers, airlines, and banks facilitating Russian energy exports; otherwise, cheap workarounds will simply kick in. The United States should also target importers of oil, gas, petrochemicals, and shadow-fleet intermediaries in China and the United Arab Emirates. That includes enforcing existing sanctions on companies tied to Iran’s military-led Sepehr Energy, a central node funding Russian drone programs, and applying new sanctions to logistics groups handling illicit energy flows to East Asia—such as Dubai-based oil trading company 2Rivers.
- Accelerate air-defense deliveries: Patriot batteries, point‑defense systems such as Skynex, and interceptors should immediately be released from U.S. stockpiles. Ukraine needs them now, not after allies purchase and export them, as every bureaucratic pause costs lives. The Trump administration should also back the European Sky Shield Initiative, a plan to create an integrated air‑defense network over Western Ukraine. The United States can support Sky Shield by providing real‑time intelligence to ensure the system is operational quickly and effectively.
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Conclusion
Russia’s ramp‑up in drone warfare, nightly city assaults, and ground advances reflect a strategy in motion. Ukraine is responding heroically but cannot win if the Trump administration stalls. Putin will continue probing Kyiv’s resolve, expanding buffer zones in Sumy and Kharkiv, and exploiting every moment of American ambivalence.
If the United States dithers, Ukraine will bleed out under Moscow’s drone swarm, losing more territory while NATO’s red lines blur. The United States can still act decisively. Accelerating weapons deliveries and imposing tough new energy sanctions during this window could meaningfully strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. Strength deters; delay emboldens. Trump must decide whether he has the resolve to lead and use the leverage at his disposal to end this war.