Washington, D.C. — A new analysis from the Center for American Progress (CAP) shows that about 30 million more individuals would be uninsured in 2027 under the Graham-Cassidy proposal currently being rushed through the U.S. Senate.
Graham-Cassidy would slash the ACA programs that expanded health coverage to millions, weaken consumer protections for people with pre-existing conditions, as well as limit federal support for Medicaid coverage for low-income adults and children, the elderly, and the disabled. A study released today by Avalere Health found that the bill would reduce federal funding to states by $215 billion over the period 2020 to 2026.
The bill’s impact on coverage in 2027 would be similar to that of the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act (ORRA)—the so-called “repeal and delay” bill that the Senate failed to pass in July. If a CBO score of the bill’s impacts in 2027 were available, it would likely show that tens of millions fewer people would have health insurance coverage that year compared to under the ACA. CAP’s analysis shows that in Sen. Lindsay Graham’s (R-SC) home state of South Carolina, 611,000 individuals could lose coverage, and in Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-LA) home state of Louisiana, 419,000 individuals could lose coverage. Nearly half a million people could lose coverage in Arizona.
“Nearly every repeal plan put forward this year by Republican leadership has been projected to increase the number of uninsured by tens of millions, and there’s no reason to believe that Graham-Cassidy would be any different. Make no mistake, Graham-Cassidy will slash support for low-income Americans and children, the elderly and disabled, and severely harm people with pre-existing conditions,” said Emily Gee, health economist at CAP.
It’s likely that the coverage losses resulting from Graham-Cassidy in 2027 could be even larger than the 32 million from the ORRA. Graham-Cassidy not only completely eliminates ACA coverage funding in 2027 but also makes cuts to the Medicaid program outside the ACA expansion. The bill would end the federal government’s guarantee of matching funds to states and restrict funding for each of the major, pre-ACA Medicaid eligibility categories—elderly, disabled, children, and nondisabled adults—under a per capita cap.
Under capped funding, states that experience faster Medicaid cost growth, whether due to natural disasters, health crises, or economic or demographic trends, would no longer see their federal assistance grow accordingly.
Click here to read “Coverage Losses by State Under the Graham-Cassidy Bill to Repeal the ACA” by Emily Gee.
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