RELEASE: New CAP, AEI, and Brookings Report Maps the Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate from 1974 to 2060
Washington, D.C. — Today, the Center for American Progress; the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI; and demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution released a new report containing results from a groundbreaking collaboration between the organizations, the States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project.
The report, “States of Change: The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974–2060,” includes detailed analyses on the nation as a whole and on every state, where authors Ruy Teixeira, William H. Frey, and Robert Griffin outline 10 broad trends from their findings that together suggest the scale of the transformation the country is living through and the scope of the challenges it will face in the future, highlighting the need for policy at both the national and state levels to become increasingly diversity oriented or be deemed ineffective.
“We at AEI are proud to collaborate with the Center for American Progress and the Brookings Institution, said Arthur C. Brooks, president of AEI. “This research is crucial to understanding our national landscape and how demographics will change in the years to come. We’re excited to reveal the first-year results at our conference today and look forward to what the future of the project will bring.”
Just as the large Baby Boom generation has had a significant impact on many aspects of American life, so too will the fast-growing minority population of the nation, where by 2060, 22 states are projected to be majority-minority, and an additional 10 states—including Arkansas and South Carolina—should be more than 40 percent minority. “States of Change” documents the magnitude of the changes and the contours of the next America nationally and in every state.
Some of the trends outlined in the report include: the rise of majority-minority and near-majority-minority states; the diversification of eligible voters; the lagged diversification of actual voters; the superdiversification of America’s children; the graying of America; and the diversification of the gray. The report concludes that, over the long term, public policy must adjust to the needs of a different America where diversity is spreading everywhere: into new generations, into every age group, and into every corner of the country.
“As our nation’s demographic shifts continue to impact policy, politics, and democracy in our country, the findings of this report and the work of this project will prove to be an invaluable tool for demographers, advocates, economists, policymakers, and press alike,” said Neera Tanden, President of the Center for American Progress. “We are excited to collaborate with the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution and look forward to continuing our work because the time to turn our attention to the shifting demographic trends is now.”
The goals of the States of Change project are to explore the challenges to democracy posed by the rapid demographic evolution from the 1970s to 2060, particularly as it has affected the pool of eligible voters; to project race-ethnic composition of every state to 2060—something that has not been done in 20 years; and to promote a wide-ranging and bipartisan discussion of America’s demographic future and what it portends for the nation’s political parties and for policy.
AEI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research organization that works to expand liberty, increase individual opportunity, and strengthen free enterprise.