Do the Math on Recession and Foreclosures

By now, it’s obvious that the housing crisis is dragging down the economy. For the past eight quarters, the declining activity in the housing market dampened growth on average by 0.9 percentage points below where it otherwise would have been. This is the largest housing induced subtraction from economic growth since 1975.

Some observers argue that this is just a natural correction of the market and that policy makers should let market forces play themselves out. The logic is that a nice, quick recession will get rid of the debt overhang by forcing people to default. Once banks’ balance sheets are free of the excess loans, the economy will get a clean slate to start over again as a rejuvenated banking sector will once again pave the way for innovation and production and not for speculation and Wall Street greed. The way it is portrayed, it almost sounds like a day at the spa for the US economy.

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