Key findings:
Nationwide, an estimated 46 percent of children under age 6 live in a licensed child care desert; in remote rural areas, that share rises to 70 percent.
In rural communities across the nation, nearly one-quarter—22.4 percent—of income-eligible young children live in areas with no access to licensed home-based, center-based, or preschool supply. In nonrural areas, however, an absence of these licensed options affects just 2.7 percent of income-eligible children—more than an eightfold gap.
While nearly 80 percent of qualifying urban households have some access to Head Start, less than half of rural households do.
Rural children make up about 20 percent of income-eligible children under age 5 but nearly three-quarters—73 percent—of those for whom Head Start is the only licensed child care option available.
For income-eligible children with no alternative licensed child care options, Head Start is accessible to roughly 5.9 percent in rural areas—a rate approximately 1.3 times that of the 4.5 percent rate of nonrural communities.
Also read
Introduction
In August 2026, the Trump administration published a notice of proposed rulemaking titled “Reducing Federal Burden for Head Start Programs” that would drastically cut the program performance standards governing Head Start’s quality, consistency, and statutory compliance. Because Head Start is a federal-to-local program with grantees in every state, in Tribal nations, and in a number of territories, the ramifications of these regulatory changes could be widespread and severe. While the proposed rule suggests it will lighten federal regulatory burdens, it effectively shifts that burden onto state agencies, local grantees, and vulnerable families who depend on Head Start services, risking reductions in access, administrative barriers, and additional child care expenses.
Families in rural areas are particularly at risk of Head Start disruptions. Access to Head Start slots is limited in these areas, but the program fills important gaps where no other licensed care options exist. This issue brief summarizes new Center for American Progress analyses on licensed child care deserts, highlighting areas—particularly rural communities—where Head Start serves as the sole licensed provider. (see Methodology)
Read more of CAP’s work on licensed child care deserts:
Head Start fills essential gaps in unequal access to licensed child care
Recent research shows that insufficient funding, coupled with challenges scaling services in rural communities, means that child care access is not evenly distributed, with rural communities facing particular shortages. In fact, in remote rural parts of the country, 70 percent of young children have inadequate access to a licensed slot.
Despite Head Start bridging gaps in rural child care access, chronic underinvestment limits it from serving all eligible families. The Head Start Act mandates equitable distribution between rural and urban residents. Yet nearly 50 percent of income-eligible rural children lack access to a slot, compared with just more than 20 percent in urban areas. Although almost 80 percent of qualifying urban households have at least minimal access, less than half of qualifying rural households do. Measured against the number of children who qualify, and using the 3-to-1 child care deserts benchmark (see Methodology), Head Start supply is scarce everywhere: 96.7 percent of qualifying rural children and 99.7 percent of qualifying urban children lack adequate access to a slot. Nevertheless, Head Start is a critical resource for rural families: For some communities, Head Start is the only licensed option available, and large shares of public preschool classrooms collaborate with community partners, including Head Start. In 2024, an estimated 46 percent of funded Head Start slots were in rural congressional districts, compared with 32 percent in suburban districts and 22 percent in urban districts.
Nationwide, nearly 1 in 4 income-eligible rural children (22.4 percent) have no access to nearby licensed center-based, home-based, or preschool options. * In stark contrast, only 2.7 percent of income-eligible nonrural children face a lack of these licensed care options—making rural children more than eight times more likely to have no options. Head Start fills part of that gap: Among income-eligible children who lack other licensed options, 5.9 percent in rural areas have access to Head Start, compared with an estimated 4.5 percent of nonrural children—a disparity of about 1.3 times. Access to Head Start as the only licensed option is disproportionately concentrated in rural areas. Nationwide, rural children make up about 20 percent of income-eligible children but about 73 percent of those for whom Head Start is the only nearby licensed option. Income-eligible rural children are nearly 11 times more likely than their nonrural peers to live in areas where Head Start is the only licensed child care option (1.3 percent vs. 0.1 percent). Among the states with the highest percentages of rural income-eligible children for whom Head Start is the only licensed option are Arizona (6.06 percent), California (4.55 percent), South Dakota (3.90 percent), Washington (3.63 percent), and Indiana (3.06 percent).
Rural children make up an estimated 20 percent of income-eligible children under age 5 nationwide, while children in nonrural—urban and suburban—areas make up the remaining 80 percent. Rural children also make up approximately two-thirds (67 percent) of income-eligible children living in deserts with no access, not including Head Start access, to licensed home-based care, center-based care, or preschool. Yet they are disproportionately represented among children for whom Head Start is the only licensed child care option nearby: They account for about 73 percent of these children, while nonrural children account for 27 percent.**
For a typical group of 1,000 rural income-eligible children under age 5 who live in a licensed child care desert, an estimated 224 have no access to licensed home-based care, center-based care, or preschool, not including Head Start, compared with 27 among nonrural children—a disparity of more than eight times. Head Start is the only licensed option nearby for about 13 of those rural children, compared with about 1 nonrural child.
Head Start disruptions would hit rural communities particularly hard
The proposed rule’s cuts to comprehensive services and personnel, as well as increased burden on programs to establish teaching and learning practices in accordance with their respective state laws, could hit rural programs particularly hard, as could increased administrative oversight and reductions in program duration and operating hours. Some rural programs may even face closures. Across the country, the potential loss of Head Start programs could leave an estimated 213,000 additional rural children and 441,500 additional urban children without access to child care.
Because rural families are more likely to have no licensed care alternative, they face the greatest exposure should program capacity shrink or funding decline. New research from the First Five Years Fund finds that in five states—Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oregon, and West Virginia—Head Start makes up more than 20 percent of rural child care capacity. Head Start is also an essential job provider, particularly in rural areas; it employs almost 250,000 staff members at more than 14,000 locations across the country. The loss of Head Start programs could consequently amount to an estimated $49.9 billion in additional economic losses.
New research from Together for Head Start on the impacts of the administration’s proposed rule, as written, reveals tangible costs for states, including cuts to health spending, job losses, and increased child care expenses for the families who can least afford them. These estimates range from 83 projected jobs lost in New Hampshire to 5,222 jobs lost in California, and from $302 in new annual child care costs in Mississippi to $1,243 in Washington, D.C. From coast to coast, vulnerable families would lose critical services, economies would suffer, and children would lose essential early education and comprehensive health services.
Conclusion
For eligible children and families facing significant vulnerability, losing access to Head Start services would be catastrophic. In a recent interview with CAP, Donna Barrow, director of Vermont’s Rutland County Head Start program, noted:
[The loss of Head Start] would decimate the lives of people immediately. … I don’t think people understand what will happen to these families and the staff who work here. We are one of the biggest job providers. The domino effects of not having Head Start here would be immediate. Children would immediately go hungry. Families would not be able to work, because there aren’t other resources. We are the resources.
Head Start plays a vital role in rural areas where licensed child care is scarce. Because proposed regulatory changes that threaten the program’s quality and availability could disproportionately affect rural families, protecting Head Start is essential to supporting these communities and the broader economy.
Methodology
This analysis uses CAP’s licensed child care deserts data (2025 licensed provider locations) and 2019–2023 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS). Licensed child care deserts are areas with at least three young children per licensed slot, measured using continuous distances between families and providers. As in previous CAP analyses, child care access reflects proximity to licensed supply, not enrollment. This issue brief focuses on areas that lack licensed home-based care, center-based care, and public preschool—locations where the supply of all three is zero—and counts children there as having Head Start access if any Head Start supply is present nearby.
Income-eligible children are children under age 5 who are below the federal poverty level. Poverty estimates are derived from ACS Table B17001. Counts are estimated by applying the census tract-weighted under-5 poverty rate to each location in CAP’s child care deserts access data, on file with the author. Rural areas are defined using the National Center for Health Statistics urban-rural classification scheme; nonrural areas include urban and suburban areas. Please note that Puerto Rico and locations missing supply, poverty, or rurality data are excluded.
* Data and analyses in this paragraph are on file with the author.
** Data and analyses in this paragraph are on file with the author.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank Mariam Rashid and Chandler Hall for their thorough fact-checking and review of this issue brief.