Washington, D.C. — After months of promises that Americans would see “$1,000 or more” added to their tax refunds, a new analysis from the Center for American Progress shows the typical increase is coming in about $665 short.
CAP finds that the average tax refund is projected to rise by about $335, reaching roughly $3,274 this filing season. That falls well below the roughly $1,000 increase promised by the Trump administration, which would have brought average refunds to about $3,939.
“The administration promised taxpayers a $1,000 boost, but the data show refunds are coming in hundreds of dollars short of that mark,” said Corey Husak, director of tax policy at CAP and author of the analysis. “Families are being squeezed by rising costs, and the gap between the relief the administration promised and what families are receiving is wide and growing.”
CAP’s analysis finds:
- Refunds fall short by about $665. Projected increases of $335 leave taxpayers roughly $665 below the promised $1,000 boost. This final projection is close to the most pessimistic previous assessments of tax refunds.
- Final refunds are projected at about $3,274. That represents an increase of about 11 percent, compared with roughly 34 percent promised by the administration.
- Most Americans are not seeing meaningful relief. Recent polling finds just 27 percent of filers say recent tax changes helped them, while 24 percent say they were hurt and a plurality report no real impact.
- Benefits skewed toward higher-income filers. Taxpayers earning more than $150,000 are most likely to report “significantly larger” refunds, while those earning under $75,000 are more likely to report smaller refunds or no meaningful change.
- Higher costs and benefit cuts are offsetting modest refund gains. Rising prices driven by tariffs and global instability, along with cuts to SNAP and health programs, are outweighing the roughly $335 average increase for most households.
- Refund changes reflect typical variation. Refunds were up $105 in the previous year, underscoring that this year’s increase is barely more than in years with no significant tax changes enacted.
Read the analysis: “The Trump Administration’s $1,000 Tax Refund Promise Falls Short by $665” by Corey Husak
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