In a predictable turn of events, the Trump administration appears to have fallen far short of its promise to increase American taxpayers’ tax refunds “by $1,000 or more” this filing season. As of a week and a half before the end of filing season, the average refund was up only $346 over last year, with little prospect remaining for a significant increase. Even that $346 average is heavily driven by larger refunds for the highest earners and is not representative of the median taxpayer’s experience.
The primary provisions of the Trump administration’s Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) are tax cuts for the already wealthy, financed by large cuts to health care and food assistance for the poor. Perhaps in an attempt to rebrand the content of BBB as a middle-class tax benefit, many in Republican congressional leadership and the administration, including the Treasury secretary and President Donald Trump himself, have repeatedly promised that the bill would deliver “gigantic” benefits for average Americans. The centerpiece of this effort is the claim that “[t]ax filers could expect an extra $1,000 bump to their tax refund” this year. New IRS data show that this is another broken promise from the Trump administration.
The IRS issues weekly reports on the status of average tax refunds throughout filing season. As of the most recent update, which runs through April 3, 2026, tax refunds were only $346 higher than in the 2025 refund season. Using trends from previous years, the Center for American Progress can now predict that the average tax refund in the IRS’ final May report will be about $3,274, or up $335—11 percent—above the 2025 level. This contrasts with the Trump administration’s promise of an average refund of $3,939—$1,000, or 34 percent, above 2025.
The Trump administration never clearly explained the math behind its promise to increase tax refunds this year by $1,000. Tax refund amounts naturally vary from year to year. Refunds the week of April 4, 2025, were $105—3.5 percent—above where they were in 2024, for instance. And as previous CAP analysis pointed out, the data cited by the White House for its $1,000 refund claim actually seemed to say that refunds would increase by $331 to $748, on average. The most pessimistic of those assessments turns out to be closest to CAP’s projection of the final refund increase amount.
New polling from the Bipartisan Policy Center shows that Americans who have already filed their taxes agree that this filing season has been underwhelming. Overall, about the same amount of Americans said that recent federal tax changes hurt them (24 percent) as said that federal tax changes helped them (27 percent), while a plurality said they saw no change. There was also a difference by income. Taxpayers making more than $150,000 were most likely to say they got a “significantly larger refund” than last year. Taxpayers making less than $75,000 were more likely to say their refund was “significantly smaller” than “significantly larger,” though most didn’t notice a significant change.
Americans have been suffering under higher prices induced by the Trump administration’s tariffs and war in Iran. Americans are also facing higher health insurance costs due to cuts to health insurance tax credits overseen by the Trump administration. For all but the richest Americans, these cost increases greatly outweigh the small $335 in increased tax refunds they can expect this year. Rather than seeing the harmful effects of other policies counteracted with $1,000 refund checks, this tax refund season underscores the broken promises Americans are encountering from this administration.