Washington, D.C. — A new Center for American Progress analysis of data through April 30, 2024, shows that gun violence is declining this year at a historic rate for the second straight year. While it’s still early in the year, preliminary data of a large sample through the first four months of a year is often predictive of the final single-year trend. The analysis also looks at gun violence trends in the 100 most populous cities and all 50 states.
Some key findings from the analysis include:
- Gun violence homicides are down by 13.1 percent and gun violence victimizations are down by 12.5 percent in 2024 year to date (YTD) compared with 2023 YTD.
- Mass shootings have decreased by 29.3 percent in 2024 YTD compared with 2023 YTD.
- Gun violence is down in most large U.S. cities: 70 of the 100 most populous U.S. cities and 37 of the 50 most populous U.S. cities have experienced the same number of or fewer gun violence victimizations in 2024 YTD compared with 2023 YTD.
- Led by Baltimore, 14 of the 50 most populous U.S. cities have fewer gun violence victimizations in 2024 YTD than in 2019 YTD.
While there are various reasons for the decline, four years removed from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and with major public safety investments, such as the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, there is reason to be hopeful that the nation can not only return to pre-pandemic levels of gun violence but also sustain this progress and make communities safer than they were in 2019.
“For all American families, and especially those in neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of gun violence, the nation’s solutions and commitments to safety cannot stop at ‘good enough’,” said Chandler Hall, senior policy analyst for Gun Violence Prevention at CAP and author of the analysis. “To continue to drive gun violence down and keep it that way, America must approach public safety and the gun violence epidemic with an even greater level of urgency going forward than it has in the past four years.”
Read the analysis: “Early 2024 Data Show Promising Signs of Another Historic Decline in Gun Violence” by Chandler Hall
For more information on this topic or to speak with an expert, please contact Jasmine Razeghi at [email protected].