The economy is at an inflection point, with the recent lackluster jobs report and Consumer Price Index release showing growing inflation and stagnant job growth in August 2025. In most industries, job growth was negative, and wages did not keep up with the cost of living. Among those who are keeping job growth positive are workers—mostly women—in the health care and private education industry, but their wages fell in inflation-adjusted dollars in August compared with July. Additionally, new data showed that the gender wage gap widened for the second year in a row. September’s report, released on Friday, October 3, will clarify whether the U.S. economy, which is currently being propped up by women workers, will be able to sustain growth despite these real wage declines.
Aggregate job growth was held up by only a few industries
Across all private nonfarm payrolls in August, inflation-adjusted hourly wages fell by 4 cents, or more than 1 percent annualized. (see Figure 1) The industries with the fastest real wage growth had largely negative employment growth, possibly speaking to the effect of labor shortages on some of these professions. Industries with positive real wage growth were predominately male professions such as construction and transportation and warehousing.
Private education and health services was the fastest-growing industry last month, adding 46,000 jobs in August; nearly all additions came from the health care and social assistance sector. Health care and social assistance is the nation’s top employer, making up more than 17 percent of all private employment in August, and an industry that was 77 percent female in 2024. As the private education and health services industry added jobs in August 2025, wages did not keep up with inflation, falling by 8 cents, or 3 percent annualized.
Over the past year, the health services industry has added an average of 69,000 jobs per month and has been a boon for the nation’s labor market growth. But both the job market and labor supply for health care are under threat: Massive cuts to health care in congressional Republicans’ mega bill will lead to dramatic job loss, alongside shuttering clinics and rural hospital closures.
The Trump administration’s attacks on immigrants threaten the nation’s health care labor force. Immigrants, primarily women, play a large role in health care delivery, making up 16 percent of hospital staff, 28 percent of long-term care workers, and 32 percent of home care workers in 2023. Comparatively, immigrants make up 17 percent of the total workforce, meaning they are overrepresented in the health care support workforce—which is projected to be the fastest-growing workforce over the next decade.
While jobs added were in mostly-female occupations, wages lost ground
Also released in September was the 2024 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey, which includes income statistics in the United States. Women working full time, year round experienced a growing wage gap for the second year in a row, making just 81 cents on a man’s dollar. These losses are substantial, adding up to more than $13,000 over the course of a year. The Native American women and Latinas who experienced the largest gaps (see Figure 2) can lose upward of $30,000 per year to the gender wage gap.
The wage gap growing by two cents may sound small, but it could add years to the time it takes to close the gender wage gap. If the gender wage gap continues on the same path it took from 2000 to 2024, it will take until 2071 for it to close for women working full time, year round—four years longer than the Center for American Progress previously projected.*
If the gender wage gap continues on the same path it took from 2000 to 2024, it will take until 2071 for it to close for women working full time, year round—four years longer than CAP previously projected.
The growing wage gap can be attributed to several systemic factors, including occupational segregation. Low-paying occupations are highly segregated, often demonstrating overrepresentation by women, particularly women of color. For example, Black women are more likely to work in low-paying but highly necessary jobs such as nursing assistants and personal care aides. Home health care and personal aide jobs are among the fastest-growing occupations, yet they tend to be low wage and disproportionately employ women.
The Trump administration’s attacks on the enforcement agencies that protect people from discrimination in the workplace, such as the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs, weaken workers’ ability to hold employers accountable for acts such as pay discrimination and workplace harassment. By removing the agencies’ enforcement mechanisms, the administration has left women more vulnerable to discrimination in the workplace. Women are expected to keep the labor market afloat for lower earnings and with reduced oversight and enforcement of civil rights protections.
Conclusion
The August data show that in a stagnating labor market, the private education and health services industry is keeping the economy afloat. The women employed in these jobs, however, are struggling under wages that aren’t keeping up with the rest of the labor market or with the wages of their male counterparts. The Trump administration’s cuts to health care and attacks on agencies that protect people from workforce discrimination threaten the growth of the labor market and pay equity. Friday’s jobs day report will provide further context on the stability of the labor market and clarity about the direction the economy is headed.
The authors thank Mimla Wardak for her diligent fact-checking; Natalie Baker, Emily Gee, and Lily Roberts for their feedback; and Meghan Miller and Bill Rapp for their work on the art and production of this column.
* Authors’ calculations use the ASEC data referenced to project linear trends using the least-squares method.