Acknowledgment of human loss
We extend our condolences to the families who have lost loved ones, are still waiting for news, or are sorting through the wreckage of this extreme weather disaster in Texas. The entire Central Texas community must be provided with the resources necessary to recover and rebuild in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
Over the Fourth of July weekend, heavy rainfall led to devastating and catastrophic flooding across six Central Texas counties. More than 100 people have died, with hundreds more reported as still missing. The flood has already become the deadliest inland U.S. flooding event in almost 50 years. As of this writing, the estimated total damage and economic loss will be between $18 billion and $22 billion dollars. The events in Texas are a heartbreaking reminder of how harmful continued climate change will be, as it is already fueling more intense, more frequent, and more catastrophic floods. Investment in disaster preparedness is crucial to giving communities a fighting chance to prepare for and respond to these events.
Amid this backdrop, the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has significantly reduced National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) staff, research capacity, and data-sharing capabilities, including weather forecasts. The National Weather Service (NWS), in particular, has lost close to 600 staff at a time when 40 percent of national weather forecast offices are facing significant staff vacancies. Specifically for the Austin/San Antonio forecasting office, which covers areas affected by the Texas floods, the Trump administration’s recent DOGE layoffs included a warning coordination meteorologist position that plays a critical role in communication coordination between forecasters, emergency managers, and the public. These cuts to NOAA and NWS programs, staff, and data are making communities more vulnerable to storms like the one that hit Kerr County, Texas, over the weekend. And now, the Trump administration is looking to expand those cuts.
The Trump administration’s 2026 budget appears to be actively working to eliminate the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) along with all NOAA weather laboratories and cooperative institutes and laboratories, which provide weather forecasting data and research from 80 universities and work to improve NOAA’s warning and forecast capabilities. Without continued funding, long-term datasets would be disrupted and the NWS’ ability to inform disaster preparation and provide accurate and timely weather tracking would be at risk. Moreover, the president just signed into law the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which, among other dangerous provisions, repealed all unobligated funds that the Biden administration had designated for improving research, forecasting, monitoring, and public communication of hazardous weather.
Timely, accurate forecasting and effective coordination are key to disaster preparedness and response
As seen in Kerr County over July Fourth weekend, the impacts of extreme precipitation are deadly and damaging. Knowing when it will rain, how much will fall, and how rapidly it will fall is crucial to allow communities appropriate time to prepare and to evacuate if necessary.
Yet the proposed cuts to NOAA—particularly the elimination of the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research—would stifle critical research aimed at making precipitation forecasting more accurate and timely. On the chopping block are promising research-to-operations efforts as well as the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats framework, the Warn-on-Forecast project, and the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) Project, which improves warning systems for flash floods. Additionally, NOAA’s 2020–2030 Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge effort—which seeks to enhance precipitation prediction by improving our understanding of physical processes, exploiting observations, and improving forecast models and products—will falter without the continued investment.
Prior to this past weekend’s events, the National Weather Service had been warning about the coming rains and potential for flash floods for days, but a few key local NWS positions had been vacant since the first round of DOGE cuts and buyouts. The vacant warning coordination meteorologist position, in particular, is “responsible for working with emergency managers and the public to ensure people know what to do when a disaster strikes.” Yet the person who had served in that role for decades was among hundreds of NWS employees who accepted an early retirement offer, leaving the agency at the end of April.
Despite these challenges, the NWS forecast office in Austin/San Antonio issued timely, impacts-based forecasts highlighting the potential for a flooding event and alerting the public to monitor later forecasts for the flood event. These forecasts were updated as the situation unfolded and provided greater specificity as the event approached.
![The sun sets over the Guadalupe River.]()
The sun sets over the Guadalupe River on July 6, 2025, in Kerrville, Texas, where heavy rainfall caused severe flooding.
(Getty/Brandon Bell)
![Boerne search and rescue team members prepare their Zodiac boat for operations.]()
Boerne search and rescue team members prepare their Zodiac boat for operations on the flooded Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025, in Comfort, Texas.
(Getty/Eric Vryn)
![A child’s baseball helmet lies among flood debris along TX-39.]()
A child’s baseball helmet lies among flood debris along TX-39 near Hunt, Texas, on July 5, 2025. (Getty/Eric Vryn)
Climate change is making extreme weather disasters more frequent, more intense, and more catastrophic.
Risks from extreme weather disasters are widely felt in the United States. About 400 Americans die each year from extreme weather disasters, and millions of Americans are living in climate-adverse areas. Currently, nearly 41 million Americans and $5.5 trillion in infrastructure are exposed to serious flooding, while more than 60 million Americans—or nearly a third of the U.S. population—live in coastline counties that are vulnerable to hurricanes. Accurate, timely disaster forecasting and communication can save lives.
Addressing online misinformation
Unfortunately, as extreme weather events have become more frequent and severe, so too have online climate misinformation campaigns that seek to deny the truth of how extreme weather is directly linked to the nation’s response, or lack thereof, to the ongoing climate crisis.
Trump’s cuts to NOAA and the NWS
CLAIM: The Trump administration hasn’t made any cuts to NOAA or the NWS.
FACT: According to reporting from The Texas Observer and The Associated Press, the Trump administration, via DOGE, made significant cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service earlier this year. Furthermore, NOAA, the parent agency of the NWS, could undergo a 40 percent funding decrease in 2026 as part of the Trump administration’s budget proposal, which, experts warn, could worsen future flood predictions.
NWS vacancies
CLAIM: There were no vacancies at the National Weather Service at the time of this disaster.
FACT: Though the NWS still managed to provide multiple timely alerts, there are, in fact, key vacancies that remain in the NWS warning coordination meteorologist and science officer roles, even as we write this column. In fact, just two days after the deadly Texas flood—which highlighted the need to fill a recently vacated and critical warning coordination meteorologist position—the Trump administration released a memo stating that no federal vacancies can be filled until October, after the extreme weather season has ended. It is despite those vacancies, and due to the extraordinary dedication of the current staff at the NWS, that experts say the agency was able to accurately predict the state’s weekend flood risk. But this clearly underscores the importance of fully funding and staffing this agency. Furthermore, research from Yale makes it clear that funding for the NWS is only one part of the equation; cuts to the NWS’ parent agency, NOAA, also poses significant risks.
Climate change’s role in extreme weather events
CLAIM: Climate change doesn’t play a role in extreme weather events.
FACT: The science is clear: Human-driven climate change is amplifying and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, just like it fueled the flood in Texas. And as climate change worsens, we will see it worsen the impacts of flooding, hurricanes, wildfires, and other extreme weather events both here in the United States and across the globe.
Conclusion
The Trump administration’s cuts to NOAA and NWS staff and programs endanger the lives of millions of Americans. The NWS Austin/San Antonio forecast office did its job providing timely forecasts and alerts that were as accurate as possible given the staff and resources available to them. But continued staff and budget cuts will have serious consequences to American safety and economic livelihood—and could lead to further loss of life.
Climate change is making extreme weather disasters more frequent, more intense, and more catastrophic. Withdrawing federal support that helps communities prepare for increasingly severe weather events would devastate American communities and rob them of a fighting chance against these climate disasters and the health, economic, and environmental harms they bring.
The authors would like to thank Trevor Higgins, Lucero Marquez, Jasia Smith, Sam Zeno, Jessica Ordóñez-Lancet, Shannon Baker-Branstetter, and Steve Bonitatibus of the Center for American Progress for their review and contributions