President Donald Trump’s foreign and economic policies—especially the administration’s chaotic tariffs and incessant tariff threats—have undermined the United States’ relationships abroad, unleashed profound uncertainty on the U.S. economy, and raised prices for consumers and businesses alike. Nearly one year after the “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event, where Trump announced dozens of country-specific tariffs, the damage of the Trump administration’s reckless tariff agenda is abundantly clear. But it is also important to recognize that these actions failed to achieve any of the results they were designed to achieve.
On the campaign trail, during his “Liberation Day” event, and afterward, Trump has argued that his unprecedented tariff agenda—which has raised the country’s effective tariff rate to levels not seen in decades—would result in U.S. manufacturing “roaring back.” The administration likewise pointed to the need to impose its tariffs to lower the trade deficit in manufactured goods and to increase wages for working Americans. These are certainly admirable goals, but the Trump administration’s trade policies have failed on all counts. The trade deficit in goods reached a record high last year, manufacturing gains achieved under the Biden administration have been reversed, and working-class wages are stagnating compared with prior gains. In fact, new Center for American Progress analysis finds that the cumulative loss in manufacturing jobs since April 2025 is equivalent to the closure of 2,800 average-size factories nationwide.
Employment is falling in the industries most exposed to tariffs
American manufacturing has not revived under the Trump administration. Instead, the administration’s policies have eroded gains achieved in manufacturing the four years prior to Trump taking office. In the 10 months following “Liberation Day,” the United States lost 89,000 jobs in manufacturing and 123,700 jobs in transportation and warehousing—two industries that are uniquely exposed to tariffs. (see Figure 1) In fact, the manufacturing industry lost jobs in nearly every month following “Liberation Day,” and manufacturing economic activity contracted for eight consecutive months as manufacturers pulled back in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Additionally, sluggish job gains in industries such as construction and mining and logging underscore the struggles that blue-collar workers’ face finding opportunities in Trump’s economy. Indeed, since “Liberation Day,” the labor market has shed 189,600 blue-collar jobs.
While manufacturing employment steeply declined following the Trump administration’s tariff announcements in April 2025, employment declines in the transportation and warehousing industry occurred later, in fall 2025, as demand for freight declined in response to a simultaneous reduction in firm and consumer spending. (see Figure 1) Despite high demand for skilled workers in these industries, employers have scaled back in light of uncertainty, cutting jobs and delaying investments in new capabilities that could have supported additional employment. In each instance, the Trump administration’s trade policies made a challenging situation for working Americans far worse—both in terms of their employment prospects and their ability to afford everyday goods.
The job losses that have occurred since Trump began imposing his massive new tariffs have been widespread as well. In nearly every state—45 in total—blue-collar job creation following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement has failed to meet the average annual number of blue-collar jobs created under the Biden administration. (see Figure 2) Compared with the annual average number of jobs created from April to December in 2021 through 2024, there have been fewer job gains under the Trump administration in the 10 months following “Liberation Day.” (see Methodology) From April to December 2025, the average state lost more than 2,500 blue-collar jobs, compared with an average annual gain of more than 7,400 jobs under the Biden administration. North Carolina, for example, gained an annual average of slightly more than 8,000 blue-collar jobs under the Biden administration but has lost almost 2,000 blue-collar jobs since “Liberation Day.”
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Investment in manufacturing construction is in a free fall
Investment in American factories has also declined, as the Trump administration’s decision to impose enormous tariffs has made it harder to produce competitively in the United States, particularly in those industries that rely on imported component parts and materials. In addition to higher input costs, the Trump administration also repealed many of the tax incentives and other supports that had been driving new clean energy, battery, and semiconductor manufacturing growth. No wonder small-business bankruptcies also increased 10 percent over the past year, and the number of large corporate bankruptcies reached its highest level since 2010.
Under the Biden administration, investments in manufacturing construction hit a historical high, largely due to keystone legislation such as the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act. In fact, 2023, the year following the passage of these two laws, marked the height of manufacturing investment since data collection began in 2002. In March 2023, manufacturing construction reached a year-over-year peak, at a 78 percent increase in investment. This momentum was sustained well into late 2024, with year-over-year manufacturing construction growth remaining elevated compared with historical averages. (see Figure 3)
In contrast, the Trump administration took the opposite approach, slashing the tax credits and federal investments meant to serve as the catalyst for renewed manufacturing construction in the United States. New CAP analysis finds manufacturing construction plummeted under the first year of the Trump administration, falling by 14 percent from December 2024 to December 2025. Additionally, the decline in investment from November 2024 to November 2025 marked the largest drop in manufacturing construction since the summer of 2017 and was roughly equivalent to the decline in investment seen during the pandemic-era collapse of 2020.
The Trump administration’s tariffs aren’t delivering for businesses or workers
The Trump administration’s trade policies have also failed at the other two objectives it cited to justify the highest tariffs faced by American importers in decades: narrowing the trade deficit and raising wage growth relative to prior years. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that the trade deficit in goods reached a record high in 2025 despite the administration’s tariffs. Indeed, the data show that while many U.S. importers moved away from purchasing goods made in China, they did not reshore production and simply purchased goods made elsewhere overseas.
The 89,000 manufacturing job losses endured since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement are equivalent to more than 2,800 manufacturing establishments closing nationwide.
Considering that the average U.S. manufacturing establishment employs 31 full-time equivalent workers, the 89,000 manufacturing job losses endured since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement are equivalent to more than 2,800 manufacturing establishments closing nationwide. (see Methodology) Manufacturing plants are often a source of both direct employment and indirect employment, providing jobs for not only those directly involved in manufacturing but also the workers who service the facility or at restaurants that feed the plant’s employees. Losses in manufacturing employment will be felt the hardest in rural economies, where manufacturing has long been a backbone of communities.
Blue-collar jobs such as manufacturing offer critically important careers to countless Americans, often providing higher pay than comparable jobs in the private sector. So, the loss of manufacturing employment opportunities as a result of the Trump administration’s trade agenda is important, not just for the men and women who have lost jobs but also for the communities and households that had relied on those jobs for the income and security they provided. This is particularly true at a time when the administration’s tariffs and economic policies have left everyday Americans concerned about their financial security. In a January 2026 Council on Foreign Relations poll, more than 65 percent of respondents reported that tariffs made a large range of everyday goods less affordable. In fact, from February 2025 to January 2026, the average household paid an additional $1,700 due to tariffs. Two notable studies have attributed elevated inflation to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, meaning workers’ wage gains during this time were competing with growing inflation and higher prices for goods as a result of the administration’s tariffs.
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Conclusion
The Trump administration’s triple failure—a record-high trade deficit in goods, a declining manufacturing sector, and an inability to bring prosperity to working Americans—must, of course, be assessed on top of the damage his administration’s trade policies have done to the United States’ standing in the world and the country’s long-term strategic interests abroad. It remains to be seen what the Trump administration does to replicate the tariffs it imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which have now been ruled illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court. But given that the administration has already imposed a new global tariff using a different legal authority and signaled that it would recreate its illegal IEEPA tariffs using other authorities, it is worth considering what—if anything—has been achieved thus far other than higher prices for American consumers, blue-collar job losses, broken trust abroad, and surging small-business bankruptcies. The answer: not much.
The Trump administration has failed to achieve any of the results it sought, making the staggeringly high cost of its actions all the more devastating.
The authors would like to thank Jazmine Amoako, Mimla Wardak, Sara Estep, Emily Gee, Anh Nguyen, Steve Bonitatibus, and Mona Alsaidi for their feedback and guidance on this column.
Methodology
To compare blue-collar job losses following “Liberation Day” to job gains during the Biden administration, the authors first calculated the average job gains by state in the manufacturing, construction, logging and mining, transportation and warehousing, and utilities industries from April to December in 2021 through 2024. Then, the authors calculated the annual average blue-collar job gains for the entire Biden administration, comparing that figure to the blue-collar job losses total from April 2025 to December 2025. The authors obtained similar results when comparing job creation rates for the full year of data for 2025 to 2021–2024.
The authors estimated the number of manufacturing establishment closures based on the latest available 2025 data on manufacturing establishment size and number of employees from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,” as well as the cumulative change in employment in the manufacturing industry from April 2025 to February 2026 via the Current Employment Statistics. The authors calculated the average manufacturing establishment size by dividing the average number of employees in 2025 (almost 12.6 million) by the average number of manufacturing establishments in 2025 (more than 400,000). The authors then took this average employment level by establishment and applied it to the cumulative job losses in manufacturing from April 2025 to February 2026 (89,000) to get the equivalent number of manufacturing establishments that have closed during that time frame.
To see the underlying data of the figures, download this spreadsheet.