Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest labor market estimates for November 2025. The report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, also included some numbers for October 2025, ultimately finding that the labor market continues its slow-growth path observed since early 2025. The total number of jobs increased by 64,000 in November and decreased by 105,000 in October, while the unemployment rate in November increased to 4.6 percent, from 4.4 percent in September. Underlying these numbers are warning signs of increasing weaknesses.
Big-picture signals of labor market weakness
One warning sign is the revisions to previously released data—a common practice with statistical estimates—showing that the economy gained fewer jobs than initially thought in September and, most concerningly, lost jobs in October, August, and June. In fact, August losses were revised downward again to negative 26,000 jobs. In short, the Trump economy is not delivering for working families.
This month, the labor market was still growing, though the pace of growth has slowed dramatically. Over the past six months, the labor market added an average of 17,000 jobs per month. However, this is far short of the monthly average of 139,000 jobs from December 2024 through May 2025—the previous six months.
Manufacturing has turned out to be a key trouble spot in the labor market. Total manufacturing employment is down by 63,000 since the start of the year and by 67,000 since President Donald Trump’s April tariff announcements. The Trump administration put a chaotic tariff regime into place with the goal of reviving manufacturing employment. Investments in labor-saving technologies, tax policy changes, and rising health insurance costs may also play a role in the weakness of the manufacturing industry. At this point, people are paying higher prices without the promised benefits of more well-paying jobs.
Job losses in the federal government further exacerbate private sector job losses. Federal government jobs dropped by 6,000 in November and are down by 271,000 since January 2025. The Trump administration’s slashing of key public services, from Social Security offices to special education, has consequences not just for those who need vital services but also the workers who provide them.
The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) takes civilian employment divided by the population and is less sensitive than the unemployment rate to seasonal and short-term fluctuations in the labor market as people enter and exit the labor force. Among prime-age workers, those between 25 and 54 years old, the EPOP has hovered between 80.4 and 80.7 percent throughout 2025, after hitting a recent high of 80.9 percent in the summer of 2024. To be clear, the employed share of prime-age workers still had some room to grow last year, considering that it was higher in the late 1990s going into the 2000s. Rather than continuing to rise, though, it fell.
A falling EPOP for prime-age workers is a bad sign for the health of the economy overall, especially for groups that typically have greater labor market barriers. The workers with the most job opportunities saw those opportunities decrease, meaning that it was likely harder for older and younger workers.
Demographic warning signs
The labor market slowdown has eliminated employment opportunities for all age groups. The employment-to-population ratio for workers between 16 and 24 years old has been below 50 percent since June 2025, its lowest level since August 2021. Meanwhile, the employed share of people 55 to 64 years old stood at just 64.6 percent in November 2025, stagnating at the same share recorded a year earlier.
Older workers who lose their jobs often have a much harder time than younger workers finding reemployment. At the same time, many older workers need to keep working longer because they have few or no savings to supplement their basic Social Security benefits. And Social Security benefits have declined over time for workers born after 1960, since the full benefit retirement age has gone up from 65 to 67.
Additionally, older workers look for a new job longer, on average, than younger workers. For example, the 12-month average length of unemployment for workers 65 and older has remained above 30 weeks in the second half of 2025, its highest level since the end of 2022. The struggles of unemployed older workers to find a new job may be a bellwether of things getting worse for other marginalized groups, including younger workers and workers of color.
Breaking out unemployment data by race and ethnicity further underscores the weakening labor market. The unemployment rates for Black workers have become particularly elevated over the course of 2025, compared with pre-COVID-19 pandemic recession levels; and every racial group hovers above their 2018–2019 averages. For example, the unemployment rate for Black workers has averaged 7.6 percent since June 2025, compared with 6.3 percent in the first half of the year. In particular, Black women’s unemployment has continued its upward trajectory, growing faster than unemployment among other gender and racial groups: It stood at 7.1 in November, compared with 5.4 percent in January. The unemployment rate for white workers, meanwhile, has barely moved from its average of 3.7 percent in the first half of the year, averaging 3.8 percent so far in the second half of the year. The old adage “last hired, first fired,” which describes the uneven labor market experiences of different races and ethnicities at the start of a recession, may hold again.
Conclusion
The labor market continues to weaken. The impact of President Trump’s policies is being felt by workers across the board, and the early warning signs are there—especially among workers of color and older workers. A slow-growth, inflationary environment with limited job opportunities, paired with cuts to the social safety net, spells trouble for workers and the future of the economy.
The authors would like to thank Kennedy Andara for her assistance with this piece, Steve Bonitatibus and Meghan Miller for their helpful edits, and Bill Rapp for his graphic design work.