How Fossil Fuels and Global Extreme Weather Increase Americans’ Food Prices

Introduction and summary

Fossil fuels are costly for Americans on multiple fronts: They saddle communities with billions of dollars¹ in health care costs, increase² U.S. household energy bills, and fuel billion-dollar extreme weather events at home³ and abroad.⁴ Less obvious, however, is the close relationship⁵ between food prices, fossil fuels, and the extreme weather, which has grown more apparent as climate change grows more severe. Though other pressures, including inflation⁶ and labor shortages,⁷ are at play, many Americans—including 53 percent⁸ of those surveyed that said they are under high stress from spiking grocery prices—may not be aware that the fossil fuel industry and the politicians who protect its interests are partly to blame for high food prices. Fossil fuel-induced climate change⁹ is destabilizing agriculture and food supply chains around the world and increasing grocery prices for Americans.

Increases in fossil fuel prices move down the global food supply chain and into U.S. grocery stores

Americans’ grocery costs have spiked almost 30 percent¹⁰ over the past five years, and the use of fossil fuels within the nation’s food supply can push them even higher. When fossil fuel prices swing, so do the costs of food production, inputs, and products in the United States. The International Energy Agency finds that direct and indirect energy costs, including from the use of oil and natural gas, can account for up to 50 percent of total variable costs for food production in advanced economies such as that of  the United States, consequently leading to higher food prices.¹¹ Another analysis finds that higher gasoline prices have been found to raise the total price of food by 0.25 percentage points in a one-year period and by 0.35 percentage points in a two-year period and to account for up to 24 percent of the retail price variability in dairy and cereals.¹² Food processing is incredibly energy intensive and deeply dependent on fossil fuels,¹³ which is why grocery shoppers can become vulnerable to gas price spikes far beyond their local store.

The close relationship between fossil fuels and food prices can manifest in a variety of ways. Many agricultural production processes¹⁴ use oil and gas, including for farming equipment and the transportation of harvested crops. Fuel and electricity account for 15 percent¹⁵ of U.S. farm operating costs, which can make food for consumers vulnerable to fossil fuel price spikes. The use of nitrogen fertilizers and other chemical inputs in global agriculture—which has increased almost ninefold¹⁶ over the past 60 years—has introduced more price shocks into U.S. food production. Natural gas is a primary component¹⁷ in nitrogen fertilizer but is very volatile and sensitive¹⁸ to extreme weather, geopolitical uncertainty, supply-side boom-and-bust cycles, and energy markets outside of the United States. This has contributed to a strong,¹⁹ direct relationship²⁰ between the price of food, fossil fuels, and nitrogen fertilizers, as well as a strong correlation between natural gas price spikes²¹ and food price increases. The use of crops for biodiesel and ethanol further exposes the nation’s food supply chain to crude oil price swings²² and worsens the volatility²³ of food prices.

Fossil fuel-induced extreme weather in the United States increases Americans’ food costs by destroying crops and slashing agricultural yields

Climate change has raised the price of food in the United States by a conservative estimate of up to 6.7 percent over the past 50 years,²⁴ and its impact on food costs is becoming even clearer as extreme weather events intensify. Across the country, fossil fuel-induced heat, drought, storms, and flooding are damaging harvests and undermining the reliability of domestic food production. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that extreme weather in major agricultural states such as California and Florida²⁵ created “unfavorable” conditions for growing key staples including lettuce, tomatoes, onions, and carrots and contributed to higher consumer prices. Torrential rains and heavy floods strip away nutrient-rich topsoil²⁶ and leave fields waterlogged—conditions that uproot plants, suffocate roots, and wipe out entire harvests. Meanwhile, longer, hotter dry periods limit water availability for crops such as corn and soybeans, forcing farmers to invest in additional irrigation, which drives up both production costs²⁷ and grocery bills.

These climate-accelerated shocks are contributing to some of the largest food price increases American families have faced in recent years. Due in part to extreme weather, coffee, meats, and sweets²⁸ are among the items experiencing the most significant spikes this year. In the Midwest, yearslong drought disrupted critical grazing months and decimated cattle populations,²⁹ leaving ranchers with smaller herds and leading the USDA to project an 11.6 percent increase³⁰ in beef and veal prices. In addition to affecting the nation’s livestock, extreme weather has  hurt U.S. crop production as well. U.S. orange production fell more than 40 percent³¹ between 2020 and 2024 due to spreading bacterial disease and storms like Hurricane Ian, which devastated Florida’s citrus belt and accounted for up to 90 percent³² of citrus crop losses—contributing to orange juice prices³³ that were 50 percent higher³⁴ in 2024 than in 2020.

Meanwhile, droughts in California and Arizona helped drive U.S. vegetable producer prices 80 percent higher³⁵ between November 2021 and 2022, with the southwestern United States now facing what scientists call its most extreme drought in 1,200 years.³⁶ When drought hits a major corn-producing region, the effects ripple³⁷ through thousands of everyday products—an average grocery store carries around 4,000 items containing corn³⁸—and even to the gas pump due to U.S. ethanol-blending requirements. Looking forward, scientists warn that yields could fall even further: NASA projects U.S. maize production could decline 24 percent³⁹ by the end of the century because of accelerating climate change.

In addition to increasing prices for individual Americans, extreme weather also affects the economic prosperity⁴⁰ of U.S. farming communities. An analysis of Kansas farms found that every additional 1 degree Celsius of warming in the past four decades has decreased farmers’ gross income⁴¹ by 7 percent and their net income by 66 percent. This loss in income was a result of a drop of around 16 percent to 20 percent⁴² in major crop yields including wheat, corn, and soybeans due to extreme heat. Moreover, recent rollbacks⁴³ of renewable energy programs for farmers make it difficult for them to build weather resilience and cut costs.⁴⁴ These rollbacks will make it harder for farmers—who are increasingly reliant⁴⁵ on income from wind and solar leases on their lands—to offset extreme weather-related crop losses and manage the increasing consolidation⁴⁶ of small farms, which harms rural communities. All of this means that unless the United States rapidly reduces fossil fuel pollution and builds resilience into agricultural systems, Americans will face persistently higher food prices driven by worsening climate extremes.

Global extreme weather events strain food supply and further increase consumer prices in the United States

Americans are being impacted by extreme weather events on U.S. soil and abroad. Extreme weather and rising temperatures as a result of climate change can weaken global food output and increase prices worldwide. The U.S. food supply chain is connected to global markets⁴⁷ and the United States, as the world’s second-largest⁴⁸ agricultural trader, is vulnerable to disruptions in these markets. In 2023, extreme weather was the “main disruptor” of global food prices,⁴⁹ which grew 5.8 percent⁵⁰ in the United States in the same year, due to widespread crop and livestock devastation globally.⁵¹ One analysis found that increasingly hot summer months could lead to food price inflation⁵² across the globe and could increase global food inflation by up to 3 percentage points⁵³ per year by 2035.

Extreme weather abroad can also affect fruits, vegetables, and other staple crops that are high-value imports⁵⁴ for the United States. One study found that from 2000 to 2021, global extreme weather events caused “critical supply reductions”⁵⁵ in food supply, and its analysis of more than 2,300 markets in 71 countries found that events such as droughts, storms, and heat waves increased adjusted prices by 26 percent⁵⁶ for fruits and vegetables and by 11 percent⁵⁷ for nuts, seeds, and legumes. Over the past year, heavy rainfall and hotter temperatures have led to global price increases of 103 percent for coffee and 163 percent for cocoa,⁵⁸ and these increases have made their way to the United States. Droughts and extreme heat in Brazil and Vietnam decreased coffee bean yields⁵⁹ and sent a ripple effect through the global market, raising coffee prices to an all-time high⁶⁰ in early 2025 and causing a 14.5 percent price increase⁶¹ for U.S. consumers. Meanwhile, the price of cocoa has more than doubled⁶² since the beginning of 2024 due to heavy rains that caused extreme supply disruptions⁶³ in West Africa, where 70 percent⁶⁴ of the world’s cocoa is produced.

Contributing factors⁶⁵ to price increases after extreme weather events can come from a combination of sources, such as a reduced supply; a decrease in exports due to domestic food needs; reconstruction costs that get passed on to consumers; and shipping and logistics disruptions. While not directly tied to crop damage, disruptions to shipping and logistics can contribute to higher costs for getting goods to the United States.⁶⁶

Extreme weather events worsen food insecurity and access for working-class Americans

Fossil fuel-induced climate change can also affect⁶⁷ American households’ food security, especially for the 47 million⁶⁸ Americans currently struggling to afford enough food for their families. For every 1 degree Celsius of global warming, the amount of people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity across the world increases by 2.14 percent.⁶⁹ Though low- and middle-income countries are most directly affected, the United States will not be immune⁷⁰ to extreme weather impacts on its own food security. Due to factors such as expiring⁷¹ pandemic-era food assistance and fossil fuel-induced extreme weather impacts—including the megadrought⁷² in the western United States that caused severe soil moisture deficits in the country’s “breadbasket” region in 2021—the number of U.S. households experiencing food insecurity has grown.⁷³ In 2020, 13.8 million households had insufficient money or other resources to feed themselves or others in their home; in 2023, that number rose to 18 million, or 13.5 percent of all U.S. households that were food insecure.⁷⁴ Food-insecure households often include those that are below the national poverty line, are Black or Hispanic, have children, have disabled residents, or are headed by a single parent.⁷⁵

Climate-fueled hunger hits developing countries the hardest

The global climate crisis and its associated extreme weather effects are rapidly worsening hunger, hitting developing countries hardest.⁸⁴ Today, approximately 673 million⁸⁵ people—8.2 percent of the world—suffer from hunger, and in 2024 extreme weather was the primary trigger for food crises in 18 countries⁸⁶ as droughts, floods, and storms wiped out harvests from Africa to Asia. These impacts fall on communities that have contributed least to global emissions yet face the steepest losses—a deep climate injustice at the heart of today’s food crisis.⁸⁷ In November 2025 at the U.N. Climate Change Conference, a global annual forum on climate change and policy implementation,⁸⁸ countries emphasized that without major investments⁸⁹ in climate-resilient agriculture and support for vulnerable nations, extreme weather will continue to destabilize food supplies and drive up prices worldwide. Adding to the urgency: The global agro-industrial food system is responsible for more than one-third⁹⁰ of greenhouse gas emissions, worsening the very crisis that keeps millions of people from accessing safe, stable, and affordable food.

Federal and state interventions can ease rising food costs for Americans

The United States must make a concerted effort to dissolve the strong relationship between fossil fuels, the increasingly extreme weather they cause, and food prices in order to help ease Americans’ growing food cost burdens and protect the nation’s agricultural sector in an increasingly climate- and price-volatile environment. Congress, federal agencies implementing agricultural- and energy-focused programs, and major agricultural operations should consider the following recommendations:

• Invest in clean energy deployment and decarbonization across major greenhouse gas-emitting U.S. sectors, including for agricultural production and processes. Industrial agriculture operations should minimize their reliance on fossil fuel-based agrochemicals and fertilizers, including through agroecology, regenerative farming, and decarbonizing fertilizer production.⁹¹ Farming operations should also integrate renewable sources into farming and electrify machinery to reduce price volatility along the food supply chain, reduce agricultural emissions, strengthen energy resilience, and decrease food costs for American consumers.
• Maintain and deepen funding in research and development and in federal disaster resilience, adaptation, and climate-smart agricultural programs. Congress must scale up investments in research and development on drought-resistant crops and other climate-resilient technologies in order to sustain U.S. farm productivity and keep food costs low.⁹² It should also soften price shocks by helping agricultural producers adjust to increasingly hostile growing conditions through strong funding for highly subscribed, flagship programs that incentivize the implementation of innovative, emissions-reducing practices on U.S. farmland.⁹³
• Harden U.S. agriculture from financial headwinds by supporting small-scale American farmers and improving the transparency of crop insurance programs. Congress must protect small and family-owned farms, especially those in historically underserved groups as classified by the USDA,⁹⁴ that are being set back by climate change and squeezed out by corporate growers. This includes strengthening public-private partnerships that offer innovative insurance and adaptation options for farmlands with high climate risk.⁹⁵
• Protect long-standing food assistance programs that help working-class Americans and children on the brink of hunger. Congress must defend funding and food assistance programs for vulnerable, low-income Americans and children who face the greatest financial burdens as food prices continue to rise.

Conclusion

Americans need policy interventions that invest in climate-resilient technology and that separate fossil fuels and their burdensome price volatility from the nation’s food supply chain. This would not only decrease costs at the grocery store, but it also would reduce emissions and rapidly move the United States toward clean energy sources, which would help limit the more frequent and intense fossil fuel-induced extreme weather events that strain U.S. and global food supply chains.