Center for American Progress

The Trump Administration’s Tariffs and Iran War Will Cause Americans To Face Higher Prices This Summer
Article

The Trump Administration’s Tariffs and Iran War Will Cause Americans To Face Higher Prices This Summer

From travel to cookouts, costs are rising due to the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs and its war of choice with Iran.

Tomatoes and other produce in bins for sale
Fresh tomatoes are displayed on a shelf at a market, April 15, 2026, in Santa Monica, California. (Getty/Justin Sullivan)

As Americans prepare for Memorial Day and the start of summer, rising prices are making everything from groceries to travel more expensive. The Trump administration’s choice to wage war on Iran set off price shocks for gasoline, diesel, and airfare, and its tariffs on a wide range of imported goods have increased the cost of foods including fresh produce and beef. With no certain end to the Iran conflict in sight and tariff-driven price hikes likely to linger even though the administration’s broad emergency tariffs were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court and its 10 percent global import tariffs were later ruled unlawful by the U.S. Court of International Trade, Americans will continue to face high prices through the summer months.

This field is hidden when viewing the form

Default Opt Ins

This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form

Variable Opt Ins

This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form

Pre-Memorial Day gasoline and diesel prices are the highest they’ve been in years

According to AAA projections, nearly 45 million Americans are projected to travel this Memorial Day—including 39.1 million people by car and nearly 3.7 million by air. They will face higher prices for gasoline and airfare due to the Trump administration’s war in Iran, which triggered a surge in oil prices globally.

The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil—the primary benchmark for U.S. oil prices—increased by 53.2 percent, rising from $67.02 per barrel on February 27, 2026, the day before the war, to $102.68 per barrel as of May 18. Over the same period, gasoline and diesel prices have both gone up roughly 51.5 percent and 49.8 percent, respectively, while jet-fuel prices have surged by 56 percent. (see Table 1) Despite a temporary, fragile ceasefire that began in April, Iran continues to block shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz, leaving higher prices for consumers despite the lower intensity of conflict.

Soaring fuel costs mean soaring travel costs for Americans—a sharply different trend from spring 2025, when gasoline prices heading into Memorial Day were at multiyear lows. In April 2025, the national average gas price was $3.30 per gallon, but just a year later, in April 2026, it had risen to $4.24 per gallon. With fuel prices once again approaching highs not seen since the 2022 spike caused by the Russia-Ukraine war (see Figure 1), many Americans are already adjusting their gasoline consumption.

With fuel prices once again approaching highs not seen since the 2022 spike caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, many Americans are already adjusting their gasoline consumption.

Americans face steep increases in travel costs this Memorial Day

Higher gas prices will particularly affect Americans planning road trips. From February 27, 2026, to May 18, the average cost to fill a typical 16-gallon tank of a small to midsize SUV such as the Toyota RAV4 increased by about $24.56, from $47.68 to $72.24—an increase of 51.5 percent. Over the same period, the cost to fill a 36-gallon tank in a larger vehicle, such as the Ford F-150, increased by about $55.26, from $107.28 to $162.54—also an increase of 51.5 percent.

Gas prices have increased steeply in every state since the war began, as shown in Table 2. As of May 18, the price of regular gas exceeded $5 in seven states (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington). The largest increases occurred in Wisconsin (68.7 percent), Illinois (65.9 percent), and Utah (65.9 percent). The Trump administration has also moved to weaken federal fuel economy standards that would have required new vehicles to become more fuel efficient over time, framing the change as a way to lower vehicle costs and ease burdens on automakers.

Americans are also seeing higher costs for summer air travel. Domestic airfares increased about 20.7 percent in April 2026 compared with April 2025. The average domestic ticket was $385.55 in the second quarter of 2025; applying the April 2026 airfare inflation rate, it would be estimated at $465.40 in April 2026. As airlines face higher operating costs due to rising oil and jet-fuel prices, they are increasing fares, adding surcharges, and reducing flight availability.

The average domestic ticket was $385.55 in the second quarter of 2025; applying the April 2026 airfare inflation rate, it would be estimated at $465.40 in April 2026.

Higher grocery prices are crashing the Memorial Day cookout

Even Americans not traveling cannot escape higher costs. Families hosting home cookouts are seeing higher prices for favorites such as ground beef, steak, and fresh fruits and vegetables. The beef patty, lettuce, and tomatoes in a hamburger are all coming with higher price tags this year. (see Table 3)

The price of ground beef has increased by 18.9 percent compared with a year ago, and the price of sirloin steak has increased 19.5 percent. Prices for those items reached record highs in 2025, largely attributed to decadeslong declines in U.S. cattle inventory driven by drought conditions and high production costs. The Trump administration’s tariffs on imported beef products have also contributed to higher prices. The administration recently delayed its plan to suspend tariffs on imported beef, so consumers may continue to face elevated beef prices in the coming months.

Produce prices have generally increased due to tariffs, higher energy costs tied to the Iran war, and climate-related supply disruptions and high production costs. Prices of lettuce and fresh tomatoes have increased by 7.5 percent and 50 percent compared with April last year. (see Table 3) Consumers are absorbing some of the greatest cost increases on produce items that rely on transportation and refrigeration—tomatoes, blueberries, and raspberries—because of the significant rise in diesel prices. Raspberry prices in April 2026 were 4.9 percent higher than in April 2025, and blueberry prices were up by 29.3 percent. (see Table 3)

At the same time, tariffs and environmental impacts are also playing a role in food prices. Adverse climate conditions such as storms, heavy rain, freezes, and high temperatures have decreased the supply for crops such as tomatoes and lettuce, while tariffs, trade restrictions, and other supply-chain disruptions have further strained some imports.

Conclusion

This Memorial Day, rising costs are adding to affordability challenges for travelers. This added financial strain comes on top of the higher expenses that families already face for gas and utilities, healthcare, and other everyday consumer goods. A January 2026 New York Times/Siena poll shows that only 29 percent of voters can afford basic expenses without worrying about the cost. Yet just ahead of summer celebrations and peak travel season for millions of Americans, the Trump administration’s agenda is further increasing food and fuel costs for families.

The authors would like to thank Emily Gee, Colin Seeberger, Corey Husak, Rachel Cotter Johnson, Leo Banks, Allison McManus, and Kennedy Andara for their valuable contributions and review, as well as the Data Visualization and Editorial team for preparing figures and supporting the review process.

The positions of American Progress, and our policy experts, are independent, and the findings and conclusions presented are those of American Progress alone. American Progress would like to acknowledge the many generous supporters who make our work possible.

Authors

Mimla Wardak

Research Associate, Economic Policy

Amina Khalique

Research Associate, Economic Policy

Team

A subway train pulls into the Flushing Avenue station in Brooklyn.

Economic Policy

We are focused on building an inclusive economy by expanding worker power, investing in families, and advancing a social compact that encourages sustainable and equitable growth.

This field is hidden when viewing the form

Default Opt Ins

This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form

Variable Opt Ins

This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form
This field is hidden when viewing the form

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.