Washington, D.C. — The U.S. labor market showed new signs of strain in February as the economy shed 92,000 jobs and unemployment rose to 4.4 percent, well below expectations, according to today’s employment report. New analysis from the Center for American Progress describes the monthly numbers as revealing other signs of labor market weakness, finding that the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration restrictions are already weakening labor force growth while failing to deliver the promised gains for native-born workers.
The prior two months of job growth were revised downward, pushing December into negative territory after earlier data suggested stronger hiring. The United States has suffered a net job loss since April 2025, when Trump first announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, raising new concerns about the direction of the labor market.
In its jobs report today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics incorporated new population adjustments to its household survey, starting in February, that reflect a dramatic drop in immigration. Net international migration fell from 2.7 million in July 2024 to 1.3 million in June 2025 following a wave of administration policies that expanded enforcement, restricted work visas, ended Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for many immigrants, and implemented new travel bans and immigration restrictions.
“Immigration has long been one of the most important drivers of labor force growth in the United States,” said Sara Estep, an economist at the Center for American Progress and co-author of the analysis. “But the Trump administration’s sweeping crackdown has sharply reduced migration without delivering the promised gains for native-born workers. Instead, it risks weakening labor force growth and slowing the economy over the long run.”
CAP’s analysis highlights:
- Job losses come as immigration falls sharply. The February report showed the economy lost more than 90,000 jobs while unemployment rose to 4.4 percent, highlighting growing strain in the labor market as immigration-driven labor force growth slows.
- Immigration is a major driver of labor force growth. Immigrants have accounted for roughly half of labor force growth each year for the past three decades and an even larger share in recent years. As the U.S. population ages and births decline, immigration is increasingly essential to maintaining a strong workforce.
- Native-born workers are not seeing the promised benefits. The latest data show that employment indicators for native-born workers continue to stagnate or fall below forecasted trends. The native-born labor force participation rate fell in the fall of 2025 and remains lower than expected.
- Reduced immigration threatens future job growth. With population aging and deaths expected to exceed births by 2030, immigration is a key source of labor supply growth. If immigration continues to decline sharply, some estimates suggest negative job growth could become more common in the future.
- Immigration crackdowns can reduce wages over time. Research finds that while enforcement actions may produce small short-term wage gains for native-born workers, those gains reverse in the long run, leading to larger wage declines as population reductions slow economic activity more broadly.
While many factors shape monthly employment outcomes, the combination of job losses, downward revisions to prior months, and sharply lower immigration suggests the Trump administration’s economic policies are weakening the foundations of long-term labor market growth.
Read the analysis: “Immigrants Make the Labor Market Great: Analysis of the February 2026 Jobs Day Release” by Sara Estep and Kennedy Andara
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].