President Donald Trump has dragged the United States into a needless war with Iran—and one with no clear end. His war has already exacted a steep human toll: Six American service members are dead, and President Trump has suggested more will follow. At the same time, hundreds of Iranian civilians, including children, have been killed in Operation Epic Fury strikes. And for what? The war promises to be a strategic disaster that risks long-term instability, with no clear strategy to mitigate Iran’s incentive for nuclear weaponization or establish a pathway to democracy.
Who foots the bill for this needless, immoral war? The American taxpayer. Already, the war has cost at least $5 billion and created global economic instability. And in failing to consult Congress, Trump has undermined the very foundation of American democracy, the U.S. Constitution, denying the American people a meaningful role in decisions of war and peace.
1. The war has already taken a massive human toll
On March 1, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense acknowledged that four U.S. Army Reserve soldiers—Capt. Cody A. Khork, Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, and Sgt. Declan J. Coady—had been killed in an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait. The death toll has since risen to six U.S. service members, and at least another 18 have been seriously wounded since the start of operations on February 28. Without a doubt, these service men and women—fathers, mothers, sons, and daughters—made the ultimate sacrifice in service to the nation.
Troublingly, and beyond the reality that this was a war of choice, reporting around their deaths raises serious concerns that they may have been preventable—a responsibility that ultimately lies with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Trump himself. Reporting from CNN suggests that the deceased soldiers were assigned to a post with woefully inadequate protection in place, described as a “makeshift office space.” One source put it bluntly, “We basically had no drone defeat capability.” Trump has acknowledged there will “likely” be more deaths in the war, leaving too many military members and their families in daily anxiety about their safety.
These casualties are not mere numbers but precious lives, and as the civilian death toll in Iran is sure to continue upward, more and more families will be left blaming the United States and Israel for their suffering.
While the war has killed many officials in Iran’s brutal regime, the Iranian people—on whose behalf Trump said, at least at one point, that he was engaging in war—have already suffered greatly as well. The Iranian Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has reported that civilian fatalities exceed 1,000, with more than 180 children among the casualties. One strike on March 1 hit a school for young girls, killing as many as 175 children; the Trump administration says it is investigating who is responsible for the attack. These casualties are not mere numbers but precious lives, and as the civilian death toll in Iran is sure to continue upward, more and more families will be left blaming the United States and Israel for their suffering. Of course, the laws of war and rules of engagement for U.S. forces are designed to limit the needless loss of civilian life. But over the past year, Secretary Hegseth has cut the teams who work on civilian harm mitigation. Hegseth himself said that the war was being carried out “[with] no stupid rules of engagement.”
As the war continues and Iran expands its retaliatory strikes, casualties in other nations will mount as well. Already, deaths have been reported in Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Iraq, and Oman.
2. The war has cost billions already, and the costs will continue to rise every day
Operation Epic Fury has already cost U.S. taxpayers more than $5 billion in its first few days—a figure that includes the expense of conducting massive missile barrages, repositioning forces, and the loss of three F-15 fighter jets. These costs increase by the day: Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY), who sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, has estimated the war costs around $1 billion daily. These figures will depend on each day’s operations and potential losses. For example, in the first instance since World War II, a U.S. submarine torpedoed another vessel, sinking an Iranian destroyer. A single Mark 48 torpedo, the kind used in the attack, costs $5 million. And when an Iranian drone hit a radar system in Qatar, it damaged a $1.1 billion piece of radar equipment.
As Trump promised on the campaign trail to focus on issues of affordability and not to enter foreign wars, the high costs of Operation Epic Fury are likely to leave Americans wondering why the administration is choosing to spend so much money on this war only months after it had pursued austerity measures as part of the Big Beautiful Bill. Indeed, at $1 billion per day, a single day of operations could cover more than 124,000 Americans on Medicaid for a year.
See also
3. The war has upended global energy markets and risks long-term economic harm
The war in Iran has also upended global energy markets and created volatility in financial markets. Iran plays a disproportionately large role in the global energy system, not only because of its massive crude oil and natural gas production but because of its strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz. About one-fifth of the world’s oil, one-fifth of the world’s natural gas, and one-third of global trade in urea—the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer—usually pass through the choke point daily.
Since the start of the war, the flow of tankers carrying energy products through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle. And though Trump has suggested the United States could provide naval escorts or pay for insurance should vessels be attacked, energy markets have taken a hit: As of this article’s publication, oil prices have risen 20.5 percent since February 24—to $79.06 per barrel of West Texas International (WTI) crude. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose 5.4 percent at the Henry Hub on Tuesday after Qatar’s state-owned energy company, responsible for 20 percent of global supply, said it would halt production of LNG, cutting off a large share of the world’s supply of the fuel. European gas prices have surged as well. And while U.S. natural gas prices have increased less sharply, Americans will continue to see them climb as the United States increases exports to meet the global shortage. Iran also has targeted energy infrastructure in retaliatory attacks, so even after the strait reopens at full capacity, the impact of these attacks on energy prices could persist.
Gasoline prices jumped 27 cents per gallon as of the morning of March 5, and oil futures prices have risen faster than they did following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating the potential for prices to rise even higher.
This volatility is already being felt at the gas pump and elsewhere. Gasoline prices jumped 27 cents per gallon as of the morning of March 5, and oil futures prices have risen faster than they did following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating the potential for prices to rise even higher. If the price of crude oil increases by 33 percent, as it did in the early part of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that could mean an average gas price of $3.38 to $3.60 per gallon, marking a $0.44 to $0.66 increase.* Such high fuel prices could quickly translate into higher inflation: In general, a $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil leads to a 0.2 percent increase in U.S. inflation.
Stock markets plummeted after the first day of the war, and though they have since stabilized, they remain vulnerable to the vicissitudes of the conflict. The Dow Jones dropped as much as 1,200 points due to the volatility, the S&P 500 suffered an initial drop of 2.5 percent, and global stocks also took a hit. As the war continues on and the impacts on energy and shipping lanes remain uncertain, investors expect volatility to affect multiple industries.
4. The war represents a strategic disaster
Trump has cycled through a variety of sometimes conflicting objectives related to Iran’s nuclear program and a political transition. Let’s be clear: Air power alone will not eliminate the nuclear program. At the very least, “boots on the ground” would be needed to exfiltrate the 900 pounds of 60 percent enriched uranium that remains intact. And even in that case, Iranian scientists would still retain the knowledge to rebuild the necessary equipment. Furthermore, this war has shown that, at least under Trump, the United States has little patience for diplomatic means to address Iran’s nuclear program and has demonstrated a penchant for using military action as a first resort. This may in fact create an incentive for Iran to seek a nuclear weapon, a total perversion of the aims of the war.
Whether the continuation of the Islamic Republic under another leader or a chaotic power vacuum, the United States will own the consequences resulting from this attack.
To the extent that Trump has said he is interested in liberating the Iranian people from a brutal regime, killing the supreme leader does not equal regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains ideologically committed and can respond to domestic unrest with its 150,000 soldiers. As seen in Iraq, simply toppling a regime—however detested by the population—does not neatly equate to a democratic transition. Democracy cannot be imposed at the barrel of a gun, particularly in a nation as big and complicated as Iran. And if the regime does fall, chaos is more likely than the establishment of democratically oriented government in the near term. Whether the continuation of the Islamic Republic under another leader or a chaotic power vacuum, the United States will own the consequences resulting from this attack.
5. The war subverts American democracy
Trump has presented neither a logical nor a compelling rationale for a campaign that entails serious risks to American service members, U.S. interests, and innocent civilians across the Middle East. This is not only a strategic failure; the president’s refusal to come to Congress to authorize this war plainly undermines the U.S. constitution. Trump’s contempt for Congress’ constitutionally mandated role denies the American people a meaningful say in decisions of war and peace—particularly egregious when 59 percent of Americans disapprove of the war. This is not just a violation of process but a subversion of democracy itself: Members of Congress are the people’s representatives, giving voice to the full diversity of interests and perspectives in the country.
Conclusion
Any war comes with lasting moral and financial costs, and the solemn decision to engage in conflict must be one that is made only when absolutely necessary. In starting Operation Epic Fury, President Trump and his administration knew well that they were putting American service members in harm’s way, that they would inflict human suffering upon innocent civilians, and that it would be the American taxpayer who would bear the financial burden. While the ultimate conclusion of this war remains to be seen, families and communities left without their loved ones and taxpayers left footing the bill will surely remember Trump’s war of choice—and all those who supported it—for many years to come.
The authors would like to thank Courtney Federico and Kalina Gibson for their contribution of research on energy markets to this article.
* Authors’ note: The Center for American Progress’ calculations are based on crude oil and gas price data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as well as oil price data from Barchart and The New York Times.