While the October 2025 jobs data will likely not be released in its entirety due to the government shutdown, BLS released the delayed September 2025 data following the reopening of the government. Today’s release reveals how job seekers were struggling to find opportunities in September. Even before the shutdown, many job seekers’ unemployment duration neared the cutoff for unemployment benefits—typically 26 weeks, but it varies by state—as people remained unemployed for longer amounts of time. A Center for American Progress analysis shows that people of color, especially Black men and women, are experiencing greater difficulty finding work in Trump’s economy. Conditions such as these for Black workers have previously foreshadowed broader weakness in the economy.
Job seekers remain unemployed for longer periods of time
In September 2025, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent, the highest rate since September 2021. Since Trump took office, unemployment has increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the Federal Reserve projects it will remain elevated in 2026. Not only is the overall unemployment rate increasing, but the number of weeks someone is unemployed is also on the rise, indicating that workers are having a harder time finding a new job than before. In September 2025, the typical unemployed person was without a job for 10 weeks, up slightly from the same period in 2024. In other words, someone who became unemployed in September will likely spend nearly three months looking for another job. (see Figure 1)
Certain demographic groups have longer unemployment durations than the national median. For example, Black women’s typical number of weeks unemployed continues to surpass other women job seekers and some groups of men. In September 2025, Black women spent 18.5 weeks unemployed, 7.5 weeks more than their 2024 median weeks unemployed, and 8.2 more weeks than white men spent unemployed in the same month. (see Figure 2 and Figure 3) This comes as Black women’s unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent in September 2025, and Black women’s labor force participation has dropped off from 62.4 percent in January 2025 to 61.9 percent in September 2025. Rising unemployment rates and duration for Black women signal trouble for the labor market and forthcoming struggles other workers might face, as economists often refer to Black unemployment as the “canary in the coalmine” for the health of the labor market.
As job seekers remain unemployed for longer, some risk losing support
As people remain unemployed for longer durations of time, they risk exhausting the time they are eligible for state unemployment benefits and losing critical income support while they search for a job. In 16 states, unemployment insurance (UI) benefits end before the standard 26 weeks. This is especially concerning for women of color, who are more likely to live in states with shorter time windows, as they are far more likely to be primary breadwinners and provide income that is vital to their families’ economic security.
Even as former workers are receiving unemployment benefits, the average weekly benefit amount is dependent on the individual’s wages as well as how the state calculates benefits. In July 2025, the most recent month data were available for all states, the average weekly benefit was $458.80, which replaced roughly 37 percent of weekly wages for the average worker. However, wage replacement rates can be much lower, ranging from 27.4 percent in Alaska to 54.4 percent in New Jersey on average in 2025, resulting in weekly benefits of just $305.34 to $589.54 in July 2025, respectively. In 33 states and the District of Columbia, unemployment benefits replace less than half of an unemployed person’s former wages, leaving gaps in household budgets as job seekers struggle to find work. When households pull back on their spending because UI does not replace their full wages, it is not only detrimental to the household but also the businesses their disposable income previously supported.
It is a tough labor market to be looking for a job
Job seekers are facing fewer job opportunities than before because of low hiring rates and fewer opportunities as employers cut back in the face of uncertainty. According to Indeed, the number of job openings in October 2025 fell to the lowest level since February 2021. According to BLS, hiring rates in August 2025, the latest available data, fell to a prepandemic low of 3.5 percent— rates not seen since January 2011.
Another notable measure of the health of the labor market is the increase in the number of workers who have left the labor force entirely because they are discouraged over job prospects. In September 2025, 537,000 people left the labor force and stopped applying to jobs because they believed that no work was available—up 105,000 people, or by 20 percent, from the year prior and representing approximately 30 percent of the population who are not in the labor force but are available and want a job.
With the typical unemployed worker taking 10 weeks to find a new job, a person who became unemployed in mid-September will typically not find reemployment until December 2025
Conclusion
The economy is weakening, and as unemployment continues to rise, workers are experiencing longer durations of unemployment. These lost wages are compounded by additional work requirements for social safety net programs that began to kick in in October. With the typical unemployed worker taking 10 weeks to find a new job, a person who became unemployed in mid-September will typically not find reemployment until December 2025. The remaining jobs day reports of 2025 will likely reveal how Trump’s economic policies have already greatly affected the economy and the financial well-being of families.
The authors would like to thank Lily Roberts, Emily Gee, Jazmine Amoako, Audrey Juarez, Christian Rodriguez, Bianca Serbin, and Bill Rapp for their review and feedback.