Washington, D.C. — President Donald Trump and Republicans on the House Committee on Ways and Means have claimed that Americans will receive “$1,000 or more” in additional tax refunds this year. But new analysis from the Center for American Progress of the administration’s own sources finds that the math simply does not support that promise. Available data show the average refund increase will be hundreds of dollars smaller than claimed, and most middle- and lower-income families will see little to no increase in their tax refunds.
The White House has pointed to outside analyses to back up its claims. Yet those same sources actually project average refund increases of $331 to $748, far below the advertised $1,000. Early IRS data show refunds so far this filing season are up only about $225 on average, nowhere near the increase needed to hit the administration’s target.
“Americans were promised meaningful relief, but the numbers tell a very different story,” said Corey Husak, director of tax policy at CAP and author of the analysis. “Refund increases are modest, uneven, and heavily tilted toward the highest earners, while other Trump policies are driving costs higher for working families.”
CAP’s analysis finds:
- Most low- and middle-income households will see no increased tax refund. Families earning under $100,000 are projected to receive refund increases of only about $210 on average, and fewer than half (48.8 percent) will see any increase at all.
- High earners will capture the largest gains, driving the average higher. Households earning above $200,000 are expected to receive average refund increases of more than $2,000, with 93 percent seeing a boost.
- Benefits will be concentrated in two narrow groups. About 55 percent of increased refund dollars will go to taxpayers benefiting from either the expanded state and local tax (SALT) deduction or the overtime pay deduction.
- Other Trump policies outweigh refund gains. Tariffs cost the typical household $1,000 in 2025, and if the Trump administration is able to effectively reinstate the tariffs struck down last week by the U.S. Supreme Court, tariffs in 2026 could be two times the size of the average refund increase.
- Health care tax changes have hit millions. The expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits raises taxes on 22 million Americans now and represents a $27 billion tax increase in 2026, primarily affecting lower- and middle-income families.
While some Americans will receive somewhat larger refunds this year, the increases are smaller and less widespread than advertised—and are likely to be more than offset by rising costs elsewhere in the administration’s economic agenda.
Read the analysis: “Contrary to Trump Administration Claims, Americans Won’t Receive an Average $1,000 Extra in Tax Refunds This Year” by Corey Husak
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].