Washington, D.C. — The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic sent devastating shockwaves across the world, but one consequence was unique to the United States: the largest single-year increase in the U.S. homicide rate ever recorded. In the week of the five-year anniversary of the World Health Organization declaring COVID-19 a pandemic, a new report from the Center for American Progress analyzes the prevailing theories surrounding this spike in violent crime and what helped to lower gun violence rates. Some key statistics include:
- Between March 2020 and March 2021, the rolling monthly average of homicides in the U.S. rose by a staggering 31 percent.
- Every state with available data saw its firearm homicide rate increase between March 2020 and March 2021. Only one state, Oklahoma, did not experience a double-digit percent increase.
- While the firearm homicide rate increased the most in metropolitan areas, counties with every level of urbanization—including the most rural—experienced an almost 30 percent increase in firearm homicides.
- Between March 2020 and March 2021, states with the strongest gun laws experienced the smallest increases in gun homicides, while states with the weakest gun laws experienced the largest increases.
- CAP estimates that states with a letter grade of F experienced more than 100 additional gun-related homicides combined during this period than if those same states had gun laws equivalent to those of A-graded states.
It will take years to fully understand why gun violence rates fell following the summer of 2021, but a lot can be learned from looking at the U.S. cities that saw the most significant drops in gun violence. In particular, gun violence decreased dramatically in major U.S. cities that responded by making significant investments in community violence intervention (CVI) programs. In fact, successful evidence-based CVI programs have been shown to reduce gun victimizations by more than 60 percent and save taxpayers up to $41 for every dollar invested. Even though it is becoming clear that CVI programs are working, programs are now at risk of layoffs or even closure because funding for these lifesaving programs remains at risk.
“It’s critical to study this period in order to understand what most likely led to the increase in violence, and just as importantly, what protected people, such as commonsense gun safety laws and community-based public safety strategies,” said Chandler Hall, associate director for Gun Violence Prevention at CAP and author of the report. “We cannot return loved ones home who have been lost to this epidemic, but we can still honor them by taking these lessons learned and ensuring that our country never sees a spike in violence like the one we experienced in 2020. Hence, it is imperative that local, state, and federal lawmakers make additional and sustained investments in the prevention programs that have been proven to make communities safer.”
Read the report: “COVID-19’s Impact on Gun Violence in America” by Chandler Hall
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Gaby Blanco at [email protected].