Washington, D.C. — Meaningful shifts among working-class voters toward Democratic candidates in the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections were driven overwhelmingly by nonwhite voters and likely fueled by heightened concern about the economy, according to a new analysis from the Center for American Progress.
Exit polls show the economy ranked as the top issue for voters in Virginia and the second-most important issue in New Jersey, with Democratic candidates winning large majorities of voters who cited economic concerns.
“Cost-of-living pressures continue to resonate strongly with working-class voters, particularly nonwhite voters,” said David Madland, senior fellow and senior adviser to the American Worker Project at CAP. “The results from the 2025 election underscore clearly the political salience of economic messaging and the diversity of priorities within the working class which leaders should account for.”
CAP’s analysis highlights:
- Nonwhite working-class voters powered Democratic gains. In Virginia, 85 percent of nonwhite voters without college degrees supported Democrat Abigail Spanberger, up 11 percentage points from the 2021 governor’s race and 7 percentage points from the 2024 presidential election. Similar gains among nonwhite noncollege voters drove Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s performance in New Jersey.
- Working-class support flipped after recent Republican wins. In both states, noncollege voters had leaned Republican in the 2024 presidential election, and in Virginia leaned Republican in its 2021 gubernatorial election.
- The economy dominated voter decision-making. Forty-eight percent of Virginia voters cited the economy as the top issue, up 13 percentage points from 2021 and 7 percentage points from 2024. In New Jersey, 32 percent cited the economy, making it the second-highest issue.
- Economic messaging translated into votes. Democratic candidates won strong majorities of voters who ranked the economy as their top concern—63 percent in Virginia and 66 percent in New Jersey.
Read the analysis: “Working-Class Voters Shifted Slightly Toward Democrats in the 2025 Gubernatorial Elections” by Jazmine Amoako.
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].