Washington, D.C. — November’s jobs report shows troubling signs that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum, with early warning signals emerging among workers who often feel downturns first, according to a new analysis by the Center for American Progress.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November 2025 employment report, delayed by the recent government shutdown, indicates that job growth continues but at a markedly slower pace than earlier this year. Revisions to previous months, declining employment ratios, and concentrated losses in manufacturing and public sector jobs suggest that President Donald Trump’s economic policies are leaving working families more vulnerable as growth cools.
“Today’s report shows that the economic slowdown is unmistakable, and it’s being driven in part by policy choices that raise costs, cut public services, and fail to deliver the promised job gains,” said Sara Estep, an economist at CAP and co-author of the analysis. “Workers who are typically hit first when the economy weakens, such as older workers and workers of color, are already seeing fewer opportunities.”
CAP’s analysis of the November jobs data shows:
- Job growth is slowing. Unemployment grew to 4.6 percent, and job gains in November were just 64,000, while the economy lost 105,000 jobs in October. Over the past six months, the economy added an average of 17,000 jobs per month, well below the 139,000 monthly average from December 2024 through May 2025.
- Manufacturing jobs are declining despite tariff promises. Cumulatively, manufacturing employment has fallen by 63,000 jobs since the start of 2025 and by 67,000 jobs since President Trump’s April tariff announcements, as higher costs raise prices without creating more good jobs.
- Federal job cuts are adding to the slowdown. Federal employment fell by 6,000 jobs in November and is down 271,000 jobs since January 2025, reducing stable jobs and weakening access to public services such as Social Security and special education.
- Prime-age employment has stalled. The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) for workers ages 25 to 54 has flattened in 2025 and fallen from its 2024 peak.
- Young and older workers are losing opportunities. EPOP among workers ages 16 to 24 has stayed below 50 percent since June 2025, its lowest level since 2021, and for workers ages 55 to 64, EPOP has stagnated at 64.6 percent over the past year.
- Older workers face longer unemployment. In the second half of 2025, unemployed workers ages 65 and older were out of work for more than 30 weeks on average, the longest since late 2022.
- Workers of color are being hit first. Unemployment for Black workers has risen in 2025 and remains above pre-pandemic levels. Black workers’ unemployment has averaged 7.6 percent since June, up from 6.3 percent earlier this year, while unemployment for white workers has stayed relatively flat.
Read the analysis: “November’s Jobs Report Hints at Labor Market Weakness Ahead” by Sara Estep and Christian Weller.
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].