Washington, D.C. — Today, the FBI released its full-year National Incident-Based Reporting System data for 2023, showing it had one of the most significant single-year murder rate declines in the country’s history. While this report represents the most accurate estimate available of national crime trends, 2024 data are not captured in the release. A new Center for American Progress report reveals that the summer of 2024 saw the smallest surge of gun violence since 2018, another promising sign that the nation is getting safer.
Some of the key findings from the CAP analysis include:
- In the 300 most populated U.S. cities, year-to-date gun violence homicides are down 14.8 percent compared with 2023.
- 2024 saw the smallest “summer surge” in gun violence victimization rates since 2018.
- Between May 2024 and August 2024, gun violence victimization rates rose by 25 percent nationally compared with January 2024 through April 2024. In the previous six years, gun violence victimization rates rose 41 percent on average between May and August compared with January through April.
Despite the encouraging evidence that violent crime and gun violence were going down at historic rates, historically, gun homicides peak in the warmer months, leading crime data experts to closely track gun violence through the 2024 summer to determine whether it would disrupt the overall positive trend. Although the rate of gun violence victimizations and homicides did go up during the warmer months in 2024, overall, victimization rates in major U.S. cities are still down compared with 2023.
These findings add to the chorus of reports showing that most American communities are becoming safer in the wake of the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; and also because of greater federal, state, and local investments being made in violence prevention strategies and new gun laws and accountability measures implemented under the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.
“No matter how you look at it, all evidence—from all sources—is pointing to 2024 matching the historic progress in 2023 to make American communities safer,” said Chandler Hall, associate director for Gun Violence Prevention at CAP and author of the report. “Not only are crime trends going down overall, but this analysis also provides hope that even the spikes in violent crime and gun violence are becoming less severe.”
Read the report: “2024 Sees Smallest Summer Surge in Gun Violence Rates in 6 Years” by Chandler Hall
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Jasmine Razeghi at [email protected].