In the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, Democratic gubernatorial candidates flipped working-class support that had leaned Republican in the 2021 gubernatorial elections and in the 2024 presidential election, according to new analysis from the Center for American Progress. These small but significant overall shifts among working-class voters—defined as voters without college degrees—were driven by relatively large shifts in nonwhite working-class voters. In contrast, white working-class voting behavior remained relatively unchanged, though small shifts toward Democrats in 2025 occurred among white working-class women in Virginia and white working-class men in New Jersey.
In exit polls, the economy was ranked as the top issue by Virginian voters and the second-highest issue by voters in New Jersey. Both Democratic gubernatorial candidates ran economy-focused campaigns and were able to both win large majorities of voters who cited the economy as their top issue and flip working-class support that previously leaned Republican. This outcome suggests that at least some working-class voters remain highly responsive to economic issues and that their candidate preferences can change as they reassess which candidates they perceive as better positioned to address those concerns. At the same time, the results, especially the differences between white and nonwhite voters and between women and men, suggest that other issues also remain critical in shaping working-class voting behavior. These results highlight the diversity of working-class voters and emphasize the importance of a strong economic message as well as the value of addressing noneconomic concerns—echoing previous Center for American Progress Action Fund research about the working class.
Nonwhite working-class voters drove working-class shifts toward Democrats
Working-class support in both states leaned heavily toward Republican candidates in the previous two election cycles, the 2021 gubernatorial and the 2024 presidential, with noncollege voters backing Republicans at both the state and national levels. The 2025 gubernatorial elections, however, marked a shift as working-class voters moved toward Democratic candidates, driven primarily by nonwhite noncollege voters.
In Virginia, exit polls show that noncollege working-class voters in 2025 narrowly split their support, with then-Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger receiving 50 percent of the vote compared with 49 percent for the Republican candidate, then-Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Although Spanberger’s victory among these voters was modest, the results represent a departure from outcomes in the 2021 governor’s race and the 2024 presidential election, when Virginia voters without college degrees favored the Republican candidates by 13 and 5 percentage points, respectively.
This 2025 working-class change was largely spurred by increased Democratic support among nonwhite voters without college degrees. Among this group, 85 percent supported Spanberger—an increase of 11 percentage points compared with the Democratic candidate in 2021 and of 7 percentage points compared with Kamala Harris in 2024. Spanberger also made a 3 percentage-point gain among white noncollege voters compared with the 2021 Democratic gubernatorial candidate (Figure 1), driven by a 9 percentage-point swing in white noncollege women.
A similar change appears in the income-based voting outcomes. Spanberger won a strong majority of lower- and middle-income voters in 2025, securing 63 percent of the vote among those earning less than $50,000 per year and 58 percent among those earning between $50,000 and less than $100,000 per year. Her levels of support with these voters not only outpaced previous Democratic candidates but also reversed the 2021 gubernatorial outcome (Figure 2), when the Republican candidate carried both income groups (51 percent among voters earning less than $50,000 and 54 percent among those earning $50,000 to less than $100,000).
Similar working-class shifts occurred in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race when compared with the 2024 presidential election and the state’s 2021 gubernatorial race.* Then-Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill won 50 percent of noncollege voters in 2025, flipping a group that had supported Donald Trump just one year earlier but leaned Democratic in polling prior to the 2021 election.** The largest working-class gains for Sherrill also came from nonwhite noncollege voters, whose support for her increased by 8 percentage points relative to support for Harris in 2024 and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2021 according to pre-election polling. (Figure 3)
Yet among white noncollege voters, and unlike Spanberger in Virginia, Sherrill saw a slight decline in support compared with the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate (down 2 percentage points), particularly among white noncollege women (down 3 percentage points). Sherrill, however, made modest gains with white noncollege men (up 2 percentage points).
The economy was a top issue
Exit poll data from the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections show the economy was a top issue for voters in both states. In Virginia, the economy ranked as the leading issue, with nearly half of voters (48 percent) citing it as the most important issue facing the state—a substantial increase from the previous gubernatorial election in 2021 (up 13 percentage points) and the presidential election in 2024 (up 7 percentage points). In New Jersey, nearly one-third of voters (32 percent) cited the economy as the top issue, making it the second-most important issue for voters right behind taxes (35 percent). This represents a notable increase from the previous gubernatorial election (up 12 percentage points), but a decline of 5 percentage points from the 2024 presidential election.*** (Figure 4)
The rising concern of economic issues suggests that voters are increasingly evaluating candidates and elections through an affordability lens. This likely explains some of the success achieved by the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, who centered their campaigns on everyday economic issues. Spanberger emphasized cost-of-living issues and DOGE cuts to the federal workforce that affected 3 in 5 Virginia voters, while Sherrill focused on affordability issues ranging from utility costs to property taxes.
In both states, large majorities of voters who cited the economy as the top issue voted for the Democratic governors—63 percent in Virginia and 66 percent in New Jersey. Importantly, working-class voters responded positively to the economy-focused campaigns, supporting both Democratic gubernatorial candidates over their respective Republican opponent in 2025 and shifting from a Republican-leaning bloc in the 2021 and 2024 elections. Still, differences in voting outcomes between white and nonwhite voters and between women and men in 2025 suggest that other issues also remain critical in working-class vote choices.
Conclusion
In the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, modest shifts among working-class voters toward the Democratic gubernatorial candidates were largely driven by nonwhite voters. The results suggest that economic issues can motivate a large subgroup of working-class voters. At the same time, differences in voting behavior by race and gender highlight the diversity of the working class and indicate that other issues also remain important in shaping voting behavior.
* Official exit poll data for New Jersey are available for the 2025 and 2024 elections, but not for the 2021 race. Data for 2021 are sourced from a Monmouth University pre-election poll released six days before the election and used as a proxy.
** Results of the 2021 Monmouth University poll show 46 percent of noncollege voters would vote for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate compared with 42 percent for the Republican candidate. Eleven percent of noncollege respondents were undecided at the time the poll was conducted, and 2 percent were voting for another candidate or no one.
*** 2021 data for New Jersey come from the Monmouth University poll conducted prior to the 2021 gubernatorial election. This poll was released six days before the 2021 election and asked respondents what issue was most important in deciding their vote for governor.