In July, President Donald Trump ordered Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to redistrict his state in the middle of the decade in order to carve out an additional five Republican-leaning congressional districts, which would bolster the party’s odds of keeping control of the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. President Trump’s demands for gerrymandering correlate with his record-low approval rating and the rising unpopularity of his signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill. By attempting to bolster his party’s odds of winning midterm elections and keep control of Congress, President Trump is attempting to circumvent the will of voters by eliminating the accountability elections bring, which is in turn a core element of democracy.
The events that have transpired since have been best characterized as a “redistricting arms race” that has seen more and more states—including California, Florida, Missouri, and New York—threatening to redistrict in an effort to counter one another. Yet, the field for this race is entirely uneven and there’s only one solution to even it: a federal law that commits all states to fair redistricting standards that do not allow for partisan or racial gerrymandering. Until this is accomplished, states with redistricting commissions should adopt an agreement, or “treaty,” committing them to set their redistricting commissions aside until Congress imposes federal standards that force all states to fight fair.
Currently, 11 states—eight states with Democratic governors and three states with Republican governors—have redistricting commissions tasked with drawing congressional maps, rather than the partisan state legislature. The eight states with commissions and Democratic governors account for 132 congressional seats—30 percent of all seats in the U.S. House of Representatives—while the three states with Republican governors account for only 15 seats. The express purpose of these commissions is to create competitive districts that do not expressly favor a political party and do not divide communities or dilute the power of voters. And while these commissions are well intentioned at moving American democracy toward better representation and more fair elections, their impact is limited by the fact that they are in place in less than a dozen states and are not evenly divided between states with Republican and Democratic governing control. The precise problem of commissions operating in so few states—and, within that, disproportionately in states governed by one party—is that that the system is susceptible precisely to this moment: political gerrymandering initiated by one party in the middle of the decade aimed at shifting the balance of power and circumventing the will of the people.
Americans can only truly have fairness in representation if Congress imposes federal requirements for redistricting that all states must abide by. Until then, states acting in bad faith can continue to politically and racially gerrymander, while states acting in good faith are forced to sit on the sidelines and watch elections be manipulated.
This problem is bigger than Texas. Congress has a profound impact on the lives and well-being of all Americans. Texas lawmakers’ actions undermine fair representation in Congress not only for their citizens but also for the country as a whole. The importance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives has perhaps never been more evident than now, when representatives are deciding week after week who has access to health care; who can receive food assistance; who can receive a quality education; who can work a safe job; and so much more. Texas lawmakers should not have the final say for all Americans. Every American has a stake in this—which means that states must fight back and have the means to meet this moment. It also means Congress must act to ensure fair representation for all voters by imposing federal redistricting standards.
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The state of the redistricting resistance
On August 14, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) of California announced that he was launching a campaign to have California voters decide on whether or not to redistrict in response to Texas’ announced plans. Just a day after Texas lawmakers approved gerrymandered mid-decade maps for the state, Gov. Newsom signed legislation empowering California voters to decide through a ballot measure whether or not to allow the legislature to draw new congressional maps that would be in effect through the 2030 election cycle. Based on Gov. Newsom’s plan, following the 2030 election cycle, the state’s redistricting commission would resume its duties and draw new congressional maps based on the 2030 decennial census.
Of course, it would be a relief to all Americans if partisan and racial gerrymandering were no longer an issue in five years and the California commission could peacefully resume its duties. However, odds are that will not be the case. California and any other states that follow suit with mid-decade redistricting in response to Texas are providing a solution only until 2030, when more states without commissions have a chance to double down and draw even more severely gerrymandered maps. At that time, states with commissions will once again have their hands tied behind their backs as they watch other states draw districts with clear partisan advantages.
That’s why states with redistricting commissions should consider acting now—taking advantage of the public attention that is focused on redistricting—to prevent another inevitable and asymmetrical gerrymandering war on the horizon.
How an agreement to set aside redistricting commissions would work
The goal should be to permanently address this redistricting imbalance going forward. That is why it is not sufficient to triage election manipulation through gerrymandering only until the 2030 election cycle—that’s too shortsighted. Instead, states should move now to pass a “redistricting treaty” alongside mid-decade redistricting proposals either through their legislatures or a ballot measure that focuses on the need for federal legislation. To be effective, this treaty should:
- Commit states to keep redrawn mid-decade maps in reaction to Texas’ redistricting through the 2030 election cycle.
- Call on Congress to act immediately and pass federal standards for redistricting with quantitative measures for proportional redistricting—wherein the statewide proportion of districts in each redistricting plan correspond as closely as possible to the statewide partisan preference of voters—to ensure fairness and accountability in time for all states to draw fair maps following the 2030 decennial census.
- Where applicable, reinstate the use of a state’s redistricting commission to draw congressional maps following a decennial census only after federal redistricting standards have been enacted.
- Reaffirm values of fairness and the importance of representation and fair maps for all Americans and how these principles will be realized with congressional action.
Proposed text of this “redistricting treaty” as model legislation is included here.
The best—and perhaps only—way to address the ongoing race to the bottom is a federal law that would once and for all eliminate partisan redistricting wherein politicians choose their voters instead of voters choosing their elected leaders. That means that all states, not just some states, forswear partisan and racial gerrymandering. A vote on the treaty alongside votes on mid-decade redistricting maps could help to reassure Americans that the ultimate goal is depoliticizing redistricting and that leaders who support the treaty are committed to fairness in representation for all Americans. At the same time, it would demonstrate that leaders fully recognize that demanding fairness in this moment is essential. The treaty could also apply pressure on Congress to finally act and pass meaningful redistricting legislation. After all, Congress has the final say in this matter and ultimate authority under the Constitution to act and end this arms race once and for all.
Conclusion
Just a little over a week after Gov. Newsom’s counter-redistricting announcement, President Trump stated he had further plans to undermine free and fair elections by banning the widely used practice of mail-in voting. In the face of the president’s repeated, stated attempts to improperly and unconstitutionally meddle in elections, state leaders have no choice but to stand up and fight back with full force.
History has shown us repeatedly that would-be authoritarians rely on exploiting existing power structures and steamrolling political opposition too weak to meet the moment in order to quickly consolidate unrivaled power. If a president of the United States openly orchestrating changes to election rules to expressly create an advantage for their own political party does not set off alarm bells and spring leaders into immediate action, then perhaps nothing will.
President Trump has made clear that while his approval ratings are falling and the unpopularity of his policies is mounting—rather than face these head on through leadership and policy—he intends to manipulate the 2026 midterm elections and deny accountability for his policies. This is all in an effort to bolster his party’s chances of winning and to prevent legislative checks on his power in a potentially divided government. It’s also clear that this fight for free elections does not end in 2026. Champions of democracy and fair representation cannot set their sights so narrowly and embrace policies that leave Americans at the mercy of a redistricting arms race once again in a few years. Elections cannot be free and fair until all states play by the same rules. In this critical moment, states must stop entertaining the notion that their individual good-faith actions can stem the tide of gerrymandering or attacks on elections. Americans deserve leaders who will stand up for them and make the hard decisions that this moment requires—not continue to embrace policies that tie their hands in ways that do not serve the nation’s pressing best interests.
But most of all, Americans deserve a Congress that will act to level the playing field for redistricting to ensure states can never again descend into this race to the bottom and that all Americans, regardless of the state they call home, have fair representation.