President Donald Trump’s next commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will come to an agency that has faced years of fiscal, staffing, and technological challenges. Following Trump’s unprecedented firing of former BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, who he accused, without evidence, of manipulating the monthly jobs numbers to paint him in a negative light, the next commissioner will have the unique additional challenge of restoring public trust in the agency. The BLS needs someone in the same mold as former Commissioner McEntarfer and her predecessors—an experienced leader who can set aside partisan beliefs to provide accurate and timely data to policymakers, businesses, and the public—as opposed to the White House’s most recent nominee.
While the BLS has a long history of rigor, Trump’s now-withdrawn nominee E.J. Antoni suggested the agency should at least temporarily suspend issuing monthly jobs reports, which are essential for providing timely data to guide the decisions of Congress, the Federal Reserve, and businesses. Importantly, the next commissioner will also have authority to fill an unusually large number of vacant leadership positions with staff that may not share the bureau’s historical commitment to apolitical data analysis.
This danger is exacerbated by continued financial struggles, as BLS funding has fallen by more than 22 percent from fiscal year 2010 to fiscal year 2025 after adjusting for inflation, and FY 2026 is likely to see even deeper cuts.
Persistent funding challenges, not recent leadership, put data quality at risk
The BLS is struggling to innovate and maintain its data products with the resources it has. Just last year, Commissioner McEntarfer said the bureau would have to cut 5,000 households from the sample for the Current Population Survey (CPS), a key survey for measuring income and employment and thus determining the unemployment rate, alongside many other essential government data.
Such a move would have reduced the accuracy of data produced in the monthly jobs reports for subpopulations, such as unemployment rates for certain age and racial demographics, which are already less accurate than the overall unemployment rate. This is particularly dangerous for subnational unemployment rates that are key for state and local policymakers. Data for Black, Asian, and Hispanic populations are already unavailable in multiple states because sample sizes and response rates are too low. For example, unemployment data for African American women are only published for about 30 states. To address falling response rates, the BLS and Census Bureau are undertaking a multiyear modernization of the CPS, making it essential to ensure the bureau has enough resources to allow for a smooth research and implementation process.
Former Commissioner McEntarfer said that the risks of cutting the CPS sample would return if adequate funding levels are not maintained.
Fortunately, the fiscal year 2025 funding bill provided the BLS with the additional money needed to maintain the sample size. But former Commissioner McEntarfer said that the risks of cutting the CPS sample would return if adequate funding levels are not maintained. FY 2025 funding landed at $636 million, which already represents a 22 percent cut from FY 2010 levels in FY 2026 dollars and a 15 percent cut from FY 2001 levels. (see Figure 1)
Anticipated reductions in FY 2026 could result in funding declines of nearly a third, compared with FY 2010 levels. The White House requested only $580 million in its 2026 budget, representing an 11.8 percent cut from FY 2025 after adjusting for inflation. Meanwhile, the Senate appropriations proposal would keep funding flat, and the House version would provide an increase of $10 million. This would go the furthest in allowing the BLS to maintain the CPS sample amid the important, yet resource-intensive, modernization process; though it would still lead to a further decline in funding after adjusting for inflation.
The new commissioner will have power to drastically shift the culture at the BLS
In January 2025, the Trump administration implemented a hiring freeze that broadly affected government agencies, but especially the BLS, which was already operating below historic staffing levels. (see Figure 2) While some relief was provided via an exemption that allowed the BLS to begin hiring price collectors on a part-time basis, many staffers chose to take the deferred resignation offer last spring, and many full-time positions within the agency remain vacant.
In fact, at the most senior levels of the organization, more than a third of apolitical career staff positions remain vacant, with senior vacancies concentrated in positions related to the employment estimates. (see Table 1) The preliminary congressional budget justification for fiscal year 2026 shows a 17 percent reduction in full-time equivalent (FTE) funding based on the president’s intended policy.
Geographic staffing challenges are a concern for the collection of regional data, hence the decision to partially lift the hiring freeze for certain positions. In some cases, there are only one or two staff collecting certain kinds of data for a particular geographic area, and in the case of an unexpected departure, the BLS may be left with no data at all. This was the case in Lincoln, Nebraska, when one employee tasked with collecting price data passed away, resulting in no staff for that region. Other regions have also experienced lapses in data collection due to a lack of staff.
The future commissioner will likely be tasked with filling far more positions than is typical for a new appointee. In prior years, there were less than a handful of vacant positions at the most senior levels—according to archival data sources before and around the time of each appointment going back to the Obama administration.* Even the pandemic years pale in comparison to the staffing challenges that will be experienced if the hiring freeze and preliminary budget justification move forward. These hires have the power to shape the culture and expertise within the BLS for decades to come. It is essential that they are selected for the skillset they bring to the agency, not their political allegiance.
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Conclusion
In order to ensure the BLS remains the gold standard for data collection, the agency’s methods of data collection must be modernized. But this cannot be accomplished without additional funding and leadership that is qualified and committed to quality data collection and publication. Budget, staffing, and technological challenges are all afflicting the BLS; now more than ever, the agency needs an experienced leader who can set aside partisanship to focus on providing the most accurate and timely numbers, all while managing fiscal constraints.
It is incumbent upon Congress and the president to allocate enough funds for the agency to perform its basic functions, which inform important measures such as Social Security cost-of-living adjustments and borrowing rates. Proposals to cut funding and staff threaten to reduce the accuracy of the monthly jobs report and other data releases, as would a politically motivated commissioner. Businesses, markets, and the Federal Reserve cannot afford to fly blind with inaccurate or unreliable BLS data.
* Authors’ note: The authors downloaded previous versions of the BLS senior staff page on and around appointment dates.