A remarkably small number of Americans can help stop the nation’s slide into authoritarianism. Political science research has quantified that when a mere 3.5 percent of a nation’s population mobilizes in peaceful protest at a key moment, it becomes nearly impossible for the government to ignore the people’s demands for transformative change. In the United States, that percentage equals approximately 12 million people. If Americans who oppose the Trump administration’s policies effectively mobilize to reach this number, they have a solid road map to ensuring that the government does not ignore their demands on issues such as deporting community members without due process, cutting vital health care and food programs to pay for millionaires’ tax breaks, and engaging in unprecedented power grabs.
The 3.5 percent “rule” explained
Most Americans have no experience in large-scale resistance against a federal government engaged in authoritarian policies. But the 3.5 percent “rule” is a helpful yardstick positing that in almost every relevant instance, no government around the world has withstood a challenge when 3.5 percent of its population peacefully mobilized against it.
This rule was developed principally by professor Erica Chenoweth of Harvard University, with foundational underlying research by co-authors Maria J. Stephan and Christopher Shay. Chenoweth and Stephan studied 323 worldwide occurrences of violent and nonviolent campaigns to overthrow incumbent national leaders or create independent territory between 1900 and 2006. Chenoweth later expanded and dove more deeply into the data with Shay, concluding that every movement with at least 3.5 percent popular participation succeeded in its goals.
There are key parameters to the 3.5 percent rule according to Chenoweth. The “figure is a descriptive statistic based on a sample of historical movements.” Thus, it is not necessarily a hard-and-fast law, but rather a solid predictor. Remarkably, most mass nonviolent movements that succeeded did so even without reaching the 3.5 percent threshold. Moreover, durable nonviolent movements are twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns because people generally reject violence. The 3.5 percent rule does not rely on cumulative participation, but rather participation at a peak event, which usually means a mass nonviolent demonstration. And the demands for change must achieve success within one year as a result of the mobilization.
For everyday Americans wishing to actively object to the government’s slide toward authoritarian policies, the 3.5 percent rule is a motivational yardstick to measure the likely result of peaceful mobilization.
People-powered movements can increase the chances of pressuring the government to meet their demands, including by building broad, sustained public participation across diverse groups. This is especially true because authoritarian-minded governments try to divide the population and keep them afraid of defiance. When 3.5 percent of a population goes beyond protest to engage in peaceful civil disobedience and noncooperation, these actions disrupt the system and force governmental change. For example, general strikes that affect the economy, boycotts, sit-ins, walkouts, or shutdowns of parts of cities can put unavoidable pressure on political leaders to hear their constituents and resolve the matter.
Chenoweth also states that 3.5 percent participation strongly indicates that there is much deeper support of the movement across society and a sense of inevitability, which can translate into defections from key pillars on the government’s side. For example, leaders from the economic, business, political, cultural, and media sectors become more likely to shift their allegiance to the side of a broad nonviolent mobilization. Perhaps most importantly, effective mobilizations can cause vital defections from police and military forces as well as the members of the political party in power.
Mobilization efforts are also greatly enhanced when they show strategic and disciplined leadership that organizes for the long term, motivates people, designs innovative and nimble campaigns, responds effectively to adversaries, and thinks of alternatives to the current system. In response, some governments will take repressive or unjust measures that can backfire with people, such as when the Trump administration uses brutal force without due process to seize and remove nonviolent immigrants from the United States, sometimes with the unprecedented involvement of the military.
Lamentably, a countervailing dynamic is also at play: Since 2010, authoritarian governments have been finding new ways to counter civil resistance movements. Chenoweth points to factors such as authoritarian governments doing a better job at controlling information flow, criminalizing protest, hardening security and police forces, and coordinating with other authoritarians. She posits that resistance movements will need to become more creative as they adapt to these new circumstances.
Examples of the 3.5 percent rule in action
The historical data reveal more than 300 instances where transformative change occurred when 3.5 percent or less of the population mobilized. These include the 1996 People Power Revolution in the Philippines, the anti-Slobodan Milošević campaign in Serbia that culminated in the leader’s ouster in 2000, and the 2002 pro-democracy movement in Madagascar. As Chenoweth continues to update her research, she has found two exceptions to the 3.5 percent rule: one involving Bahrain in 2011–2014 and another involving Brunei in 1962.
In the United States, recent mass mobilizations have gone a long way toward achieving 3.5 percent turnout—or 12 million Americans. The 2017 Women’s March, for instance, saw more than 4 million people go into the streets, the largest single-day protest in U.S. history at that time. That number was surpassed earlier this year, when an estimated 5 million Americans marched in more than 2,000 towns and cities across the nation for the “No Kings” protests.
The 3.5 percent rule: By the numbers
323
Instances where transformative change occurred in foreign nations when 3.5 percent or less of the population mobilized, 1900–2006
12M
Number of Americans needed to make up 3.5 percent of the nation’s population
5M
Number of peaceful protesters across 2,000 U.S. towns and cities during the No Kings protests of June 2025
12M
Number of people who visited the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in 2024.
Notably, 12 million Americans is roughly equal to the number of people who participated in the following activities:
Many methods exist for people to make their voices heard
The 3.5 percent rule illustrates the sheer power of public protest. Additionally, as experts such as Hardy Merriman have discussed, there are many other powerful community-based activities that people can engage in to bolster the conditions for more expansive protest. Especially when continued over many months, people-powered activities could result in pressuring Congress and key pillars of society—including business leaders, cultural and religious institutions, and police forces—to object to the administration’s actions and impair its ability to carry out its harmful policy agenda. Everyday Americans could choose from the following activities, among many others:
- Communicate with your congressman and two senators—no matter their political party—in person, by email, or by telephone. Similarly, share your views with your statewide elected officials, including your governor, or your state-level lawmakers.
- As some members of Congress are curtailing public town halls, attend a local city or town council meeting or school board meeting. Use time dedicated for public comments to share your views and ask local officials to challenge harmful federal policies.
- Share your opinions with at least three friends, family members, fellow parishioners, or others. Explore the option of jointly creating a weekly meetup to explore efforts such as sign-on petitions, social media coordination and hashtags, and local vigils.
- Find powerful examples of people in your community who have been hurt by the administration’s policies and, where appropriate, elevate them to the media, lawmakers, and others.
- Help create an enduring online document or website where people can build a record of public harms, including through videos, stories, and responsive actions taken.
- Pool money with neighbors to amplify your message—for example, by renting a local billboard, buying an ad in a local newspaper, or skywriting.
- Boycott local businesses that fail to stand up for the community or actively support businesses that do the right thing. Attend a local Chamber of Commerce meeting and encourage business leaders to defend the rule of law.
- Display images or powerful symbols, using bumper stickers, banners, leaflets, and more to detail facts about how the administration’s policies are hurting community members.
- Organize people to perform street theater, sing, or do flash mobs to illustrate harms or parody federal officials. As Hardy Merriman explains, in appropriate situations, mockery and humor can reduce the potency of attacks.
Conclusion
For everyday Americans wishing to actively object to the government’s slide toward authoritarian policies, the 3.5 percent rule is a motivational yardstick to measure the likely result of peaceful mobilization. People-powered movements are more successful when they can strategically build a broad tent across the political spectrum, avoid violence, and remain relentlessly disciplined. Sharing the risks of defiance, Americans committed to pro-democracy principles can shift the current balance of power and change the trajectory of the nation.