Fact Sheet: Declining Global Demand for Oil and Gas Benefits Americans, and U.S. Policy Can Accelerate It

Enacting policies that decrease global demand for oil and gas delivers benefits for Americans. These include decreased energy costs,¹ as declining demand for oil and gas puts downward pressure on gasoline and home energy prices; reduced greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change; and diminished reliance on volatile energy markets and authoritarian petrostates.² By working with historical allies and partners through trade policy, security partnerships, and foreign development assistance to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes, these countries and the United States represent more than half of global oil and gas demand and therefore can accelerate a global peak in demand.

This fact sheet and the accompanying report analyze the oil and gas demand of trade, security, and foreign development assistance partners, yielding the following key findings:

1. Countries identified as trade partners could consume 27,600 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) to 45,000 TBtu of oil and gas in their industrial sectors by 2050, representing anywhere from 11 to 14 percent of global demand.³ Taking steps to decarbonize industry in these countries could have a significant global impact, and encouraging decarbonization of industry through U.S. trade policy could accelerate the decline in oil and gas use.
2. Countries identified as security partners are projected to consume about 48,600 TBtu of oil and gas by 2050, yet their demand for oil and gas in 2050 could be nearly 18 percent lower in a likely scenario.⁴ Prioritizing energy security through decarbonization could contribute to decreased demand for oil and gas in these countries.
3. Countries identified as historical recipients of foreign development assistance could drive as much as 21 percent of global oil and gas demand by 2050.⁵ Yet in a likely scenario, 2050 oil and gas demand from these countries could be as low as 17 percent of global demand.⁶ Providing financial support, technical expertise, and technology-sharing to drive clean energy adoption could help keep future oil and gas demand in these countries closer to the lower end of that range.

To be successful, a new U.S. presidential administration must move quickly to shore up partners whose relationships with the United States have strained under the adversarial and isolationist actions of the Trump administration. This will require the United States to reengage collaboratively in multilateral forums and reestablish itself as a credible partner in order to yield benefits for Americans.