Nearly seven months since the Trump administration began its reckless war with Iran, the war has proved a strategic disaster for the United States. The administration’s initial claims that the war would be over quickly, as well as its early insistence on regime change, have been replaced by growing concerns over munitions depletion, attacks on U.S. bases, and angst over a conflict that has spread throughout the region. The Iranian regime now claims full control over the Strait of Hormuz, and its Houthi allies have seized two strategic islands in the Red Sea and a major port, giving them control over another vital global oil and gas chokepoint—the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq attacked a major oil pipeline transiting Saudi Arabia, which is expected to be shut down for weeks, further choking energy supplies. In total, roughly one-third* of global oil supply must now transit one or both of these two contested waterways before making its way onto global markets, all while major oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East remains damaged or destroyed as a result of the Trump administration’s war.
While some of the war’s supporters, such as Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), have suggested that the war in Iran is “out of sight, out of mind” for the American people, the reality is that the costs of the Trump administration’s failures remain significant to American families. The global price of oil recently topped $100 per barrel. Price increases at the store and at the pump, higher borrowing costs, higher home heating oil costs, and higher inflation are further straining Americans who were being crushed by high costs even before the war. (see Table 1)
Data from AAA show that the national average cost of regular gas was $4.44 on September 17, 49 percent higher than on February 27—the day before the war with Iran began—and the cost of diesel has also reached record highs, averaging $6.40 per gallon on September 17. The national average diesel price is up more than 70 percent compared with before the war. Figure 2 below shows that gas and diesel prices have increased in every state since the beginning of Trump’s war with Iran. In 14 states, the price per gallon of gasoline now exceeds $4.50, while the price per gallon of diesel now exceeds $6 in 46 states.
As this conflict drags on, American families continue to shoulder the cost of the Trump administration’s unpopular war. According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the war had already cost the average American household $1,650 as of early September. Given the expanding nature of the war, these prices will almost certainly continue to increase.
The authors would like to thank Allison McManus, Emily Gee, Trevor Higgins, Colin Seeberger, Andrew Miller, Fiona Fitzpatrick, Mimla Wardak, Kennedy Andara, Sara Estep, Audrey Juarez, Christian Rodriguez, Cindy Murphy-Tofig, Chester Hawkins, and Anh Nguyen for their contributions to this analysis.
*Twenty percent of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Another 12 percent of global oil supply passes through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.