Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Employment Situation report for August 2026, showing that 162,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy while the unemployment rate stayed the same, at 4.1 percent. This stronger-than-expected job growth is welcome, but it may represent only a brief rebound, given BLS projections over the coming decade.
BLS’ own 10-year outlook, released a week before the August jobs report, projected that the economy will add 5.9 million jobs over the next decade, with employment increasing from 170.3 million in 2025 to 176.2 million in 2035. Notably, this implies a growth rate of only 3.5 percent, slower than the 10.9 percent growth recorded from 2015 to 2025. Presuming job growth were constant over the next decade, that projection implies the United States would add about 49,000 jobs per month, far more than the average 31,000 jobs added per month from August 2025 to July 2026.
New analysis from the Center for American Progress finds that just to maintain the employment-to-population ratio, the U.S. economy would need to add about 97,000 jobs a month—more than three times the pace averaged over the past year.
Job growth needs to be much higher under several scenarios just to sustain the employment-to-population ratio
Job growth needs to be stronger than it’s been in the past 12 months to get the U.S. labor market back to pre-pandemic levels—when workers enjoyed greater job prospects, wage growth outpaced inflation, and there were enough job opportunities that people didn’t give up on searching for work altogether. Steady, strong job growth signals an economy where demand is healthy, employers are confident enough to keep hiring, and workers have the leverage to bargain for better pay. Weak or negative job growth signals the opposite: employers pulling back, less bargaining power for workers, and an economy at risk of falling behind rather than getting ahead.
The U.S. economy added an average of 31,000 jobs a month from August 2025 to July 2026—a pace that hasn’t kept up with population growth. July 2026’s employment-to-population ratio (EPOP), the share of Americans ages 16 and older who are employed, fell to 58.9 percent, the lowest reading since May 2014, excluding the pandemic era. EPOP edged up to 59.1 percent in August but remained well below its August 2025 level of 59.6 percent, indicating that the recent decline has not been reversed. As the U.S. population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace in recent years, job growth needs to be higher in order to hold the employment-to-population ratio steady—and how much higher depends on the ambition of the target.
To explore what the optimal level of monthly job growth might be, CAP built two scenarios based on the employment-to-population ratio. Over the past decade (2016–2026), EPOP grew steadily until COVID-19, when it experienced a sharp pandemic-era decline followed by a recovery. More recently, EPOP has declined nearly continuously, falling from 59.7 in December 2025 percent to 58.9 percent in July 2026 (see Figure 1) before rising slightly, to 59.1 percent, in August. The authors’ methodology models EPOP separately by age group—ages 16–24, 25–54, and 55 and older—as different age groups have very different employment and growth patterns and a single overall target would obscure the trends happening within each group.
All calculations in each scenario were calculated over a 24-month period and use EPOP as of July 2026, the latest month available at the time of the analysis.
Scenario 1 (baseline): Hold EPOP at its July 2026 level
The “baseline” scenario holds EPOP steady within each age group—assuming no further deterioration and no recovery for the 16–24, 25–54, and 55-plus populations—rather than holding the economywide EPOP fixed at its July 2026 level. In practical terms, this means that the share of each age group with a job would neither rise nor fall. The labor market would stop deteriorating, but it would not improve: Existing labor-market slack would remain, and people already struggling to find work or secure the hours they want would see little relief. To hold EPOP steady within each age group (as of July 2026), the U.S. economy would need to add about 97,000 jobs per month.
97,000
Monthly job growth needed for the employment-to-population ratio to hold steady
Because the population is aging—which CAP’s model accounts for—more people are shifting into the 55-and-older group over time, and this group has a lower EPOP than the overall EPOP for ages 16 and older shown in Figure 1. Hence, even when each age group’s EPOP is held constant, the lower-EPOP group carries more weight, meaning the overall EPOP for everyone ages 16 and older could still decline slightly, as shown by the baseline scenario in Figure 1.
Note that average monthly net job growth was below 97,000 in 2025 and during the first seven months of 2026. Yet this nearly 97,000-job threshold is hardly unprecedented: Excluding 2020, average monthly job growth over the past decade well exceeded it. (see Figure 2)
Scenario 2: Regain pre-pandemic EPOP rate
This second scenario models what it would take to get back to the pre-pandemic labor market. In the years leading up to 2020, the job outlook was good: EPOP was rising, and both the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate were stable. Then COVID-19 hit, and EPOP took a sharp turn for the worse, dropping about 10 percentage points in just two months. Even though economic recovery began in May 2020, helped by federal stimulus, EPOP is not on track to rise back to pre-pandemic levels, as CAP’s analysis shows in Figure 1.
297,067
Monthly job growth needed to regain pre-pandemic employment-to-population ratio
This scenario assumes that the share of people employed within each age group rises until reaching the February 2020 EPOP level. Achieving that recovery within two years would require the U.S. economy to add about 297,000 jobs per month.
This is an ambitious benchmark. Demographic trends and artificial intelligence’s emerging negative effects on entry-level employment add uncertainty to the future path of hiring. Even so, the estimate provides a useful measure of the job growth needed to restore pre-pandemic employment rates.
Conclusion
While these employment scenarios are not meant to be prescriptive, they suggest benchmarks for healthy job market growth. The value of this exercise is not to provide a precise number but rather a general guide as to whether the labor market is on track. If monthly job growth stays below 97,000, EPOP would still decline; if monthly job growth were to reach 97,000—the pace needed to hold each age group’s EPOP steady at its July 2026 level—the labor market would not be losing further ground. A rate above 97,000 jobs per month would signal that job growth was outpacing population growth, workers were making progress again, and the labor market was regaining ground lost in the pandemic recession.
It’s also worth revisiting the 49,000 jobs a month implied by BLS’ 10-year employment projections. That figure sits below the 97,000 threshold—a reminder that even the pace BLS itself expects over the next decade wouldn’t be enough to stop EPOP from sliding further.
Appendix
Data and sources
All inputs were drawn from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey (CPS), accessed via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and BLS data tools, for three age groups: 16–24, 25–54, and 55 and older. All figures reflect the July 2026 observation as the current baseline.
Methodology
To calculate the number of jobs required under each scenario, the authors followed four steps:
- Set the target EPOP for each age group: The authors defined a target employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) for the 16–24, 25–54, and 55-and-older groups separately. They did not target the overall 16-and-older EPOP directly; the headline 16-plus ratio emerged as a byproduct of the three age-group paths and the shifting size of each group. The target was reached at the end of a two-year window, with EPOP moving in a straight line from its current level to the target.
- Project the denominator by calculating population by age group: The authors assumed each group grows at the rate it has averaged over the past seven years, using a compound annual growth rate (CAGR): annual growth rate = (Population₂₀₂₆ / Population₂₀₁₉)^(1/7) – 1. This annual rate was converted to an implied monthly rate, (1 + annual rate)^(1/12) – 1, and population was compounded forward month by month over the 24-month projection window. Computed annual growth rates by age group in the past seven years were: 16–24 = 0.711%, 25–54 = 0.434%, 55-plus = 1.472%.
- Derive the implied level of employment: Because EPOP equals employment divided by population, a target EPOP for a given month (step 1) combined with projected population for that month (step 2) gave the level of employment needed to hit that target in a given month for each age group. The authors computed (employment at month 24 – employment today) ÷ 24.
- Sum across groups: Adding the three age-group figures gave the reported headline average monthly job growth.
One caveat on Scenario 2: The figure reported in this analysis reflects the pace needed to reach the target within two years. Allowing a longer horizon would lower the required monthly number.
A note on comparability: CPS/EPOP figures vs. BLS “jobs day” numbers
The reported headline numbers signify the pace of job growth needed to reach a given EPOP target; and the natural, intended way to track progress toward that target is to compare it against the monthly pace of job growth the economy is actually delivering, as reported in BLS’ monthly Employment Situation release—known as “jobs day.”
That comparison is meaningful, but it crosses two different surveys, which readers should keep in mind when interpreting the gap:
- The target EPOP by age group is derived from the CPS household survey, measuring people employed by age group, with each person, including the self-employed, counted once regardless of how many jobs they hold.
- The actual monthly pace typically cited on jobs day comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) establishment survey, measuring payroll jobs at worksites, with no age breakdown, excluding the self-employed, and counting a person twice if they hold two jobs.
CPS and CES numbers routinely diverge, sometimes sharply, due to differing survey methodology and underlying concepts: people versus jobs. Even CPS’ own age-group components don’t sum exactly to its published total, due to separate seasonal adjustment. Readers should treat any comparison against CAP’s headline numbers as a ballpark, directional read—gauging whether the pace is materially above, below, or roughly on target—rather than precise evidence of over- or underperformance.
A note on population aging
Each age group’s population is projected using its own trailing seven-year CAGR (July 2019–July 2026); there’s no explicit mechanic for individuals moving between brackets (e.g., aging from 25–54 into 55-plus). The effect of aging is implicit in each group’s growth rate: 55-plus grows much faster than 25–54 (1.472 percent versus 0.434 percent annually), largely because the sizable Baby Boomer generation has remained in the 55-plus bracket throughout this period—only losing members to death, not to aging out—while a smaller Gen X cohort has been the only source of new entrants since 2019. This is a reasonable simplification over a 24-month horizon, as it assumes the 2019–2026 pace of inflow/outflow continues unchanged.
The analysis also states that roughly 4 in 5 Baby Boomers have already turned 65 as of 2026. That figure comes from a simple calculation based on the 19 birth-year cohorts that make up the Boomer generation (1946–1964). Sixteen of those cohorts (1946–1961) have already turned 65, while the remaining three (1962–1964) have not yet: 16 ÷ 19 ≈ 0.84, or roughly 4 in 5.