Washington, D.C. — At the six-month mark of an irresponsible war of choice in Iran, the Trump administration has become mired in a Middle East quagmire it can neither win nor easily exit, according to a new analysis from the Center for American Progress.
So far, Iran has emerged as the strategic victor. The longer the Trump administration fails to reach a durable conclusion to the conflict, the more the United States stands to lose. Yet there remains no viable path to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or curtail Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
“Iran holds the leverage and has only shown interest in using it to inflict maximum pain on the United States,” said Allison McManus, managing director for National Security and International Policy at CAP and co-author of the analysis. “Meanwhile, Americans continue to pay for the Trump administration’s war, and the costs will only continue to mount the longer the United States remains engaged.”
Estimates show that the war has cost the average household more than $1,200 so far, after experts tally the impact of military spending and the impact on higher interest rates, gas costs, groceries, and transportation. For all of these costs, the Iranian regime has remained firmly entrenched and is even more radicalized. The war is likely to only increase Iran’s incentive to pursue a nuclear weapon.
Ending this quagmire begins with pursuing a negotiated agreement, which should be backed by both carrots and sticks, like the application or easing of sanctions. This approach is the only one that has been shown to work, in contrast to the Trump administration’s failed attempts to use military force.
Read the analysis: “The Trump Administration’s Middle East Quagmire: Six Months into the War in Iran” by Damian Murphy, Allison McManus, and Andrew Miller
Read the fact sheet: “Costs of Iran War” by Ryan Mulholland, Courtney Federico, and Allison McManus
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Sam Hananel at [email protected].