Washington, D.C. — A new analysis from the Center for American Progress finds that recent cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) could lead to nearly 70,000 avoidable deaths nationwide by 2040, based on state-by-state estimates.
The analysis examines provisions enacted under the Trump administration’s Big “Beautiful” Bill, which imposed the largest SNAP cuts in history. By expanding work requirements, the law is expected to reduce participation by an estimated 2.4 million people each month, cutting off access to food assistance for millions of families. New administrative and benefit state cost shifts could produce even worse outcomes if states are forced to leave SNAP entirely.
“The president’s historic cuts to SNAP will cost lives,” said Kyle Ross, senior policy analyst at CAP and author of the analysis. “SNAP is one of the most effective tools we have to reduce food insecurity and improve health outcomes. Taking it away from millions of people will have predictable and preventable consequences.”
CAP’s analysis highlights:
- SNAP cuts could lead to tens of thousands of deaths: Expanded work requirements alone are projected to result in nearly 70,000 avoidable deaths by 2040.
- Millions will lose access to food assistance: The Congressional Budget Office estimates SNAP participation will fall by 2.4 million people in an average month due to new restrictions.
- Health outcomes will worsen: SNAP participation is linked to lower rates of chronic disease, fewer hospitalizations, better self-reported health, and reduced mortality.
- Paperwork requirements will create barriers: Many SNAP recipients already work but face unstable hours, making it difficult to meet rigid monthly reporting requirements.
- State-level impacts will be severe: In states such as Pennsylvania, paperwork requirement expansions alone could lead to roughly 1,300 premature deaths by 2040, with far greater losses if the state is forced to exit SNAP entirely.
- Cost shifts could push states out of the program: As states are required to take on up to 75 percent of administrative costs and up to 15 percent of benefit costs, some may be unable to sustain participation in SNAP.
To mitigate the harm, CAP calls on Congress to delay or reverse the law’s administrative and benefit cost shifts and to reconsider the expanded work requirements that are driving coverage losses.
Read the column: “SNAP Cuts Could Lead To 70,000 Avoidable Deaths” by Kyle Ross
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].