The Trump administration’s reckless war of choice in Iran is spreading death and destruction, and American consumers are also seeing rising prices on everyday essentials. This includes the cost of housing, as mortgage rates have risen for the third straight week in response to growing investor concerns about the war’s impact on inflation.
The latest data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending on March 19 shows that average 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen to 6.22 percent—up from 5.98 percent at the end of February. New analysis from the Center for American Progress shows how homebuyers would pay more for their mortgage if they bought a house at the median single family home sale price of $447,000 with a down payment of 10 percent—the median for first-time buyers—compared to if they locked in an interest rate just a few weeks prior. The difference in mortgage rates would translate into paying an extra $63 per month, $756 per year, or $22,680 over the lifetime of the 30-year loan.
Rise in expected monthly mortgage payments for first-time homebuyers
$22,680
over the lifetime of a 30-year loan
In the last week of February, rates had fallen below 6 percent for the first time since 2022. Without the war, mortgage rates were expected to remain below 6 percent. However, expectations of rising inflation originating from increased oil prices are putting upward pressure on interest rates for the 10-year Treasury note, which the 30-year mortgage rate is benchmarked to. Thousands of homes are sold per day, meaning families across the United States will be paying higher mortgage payments with money that could have gone to funding other large expenses, such as education for their children. A lengthy conflict in the Middle East that reduces oil supply and increases inflation will make it unlikely that mortgage rates will soon fall to more affordable levels for homebuyers.
Increases in prices to date
The war in Iran has driven up prices for oil, gasoline, and fertilizer around the world. Table 1 shows the price increase as of March 19, compared to February 27, the day before the U.S. military strike on Iran began.
According to analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the war cost an estimated $16.5 billion by its 12th day, and continued daily costs are likely to exceed $300 million per day. Depending on the tempo of operations or equipment losses, some days may significantly exceed that figure.
Conclusion
The war in Iran is costing billions of taxpayer dollars while Americans are getting squeezed with higher energy and housing costs. Despite President Donald Trump’s reported claim that no one cares about housing, his war with Iran is actively fueling the affordability crisis.
Methodology
Calculations for increases to a first-time homebuyer’s mortgage payment were based on outputs from Fannie Mae’s mortgage calculator. The median single family home sale price for February 2026 was collected from Redfin, and the median down payment for first-time homebuyers was collected from the National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Values for homeowners insurance, homeowners association or condo fees, and property taxes used Fannie Mae’s default settings of 0.75 percent, 0.25 percent, and 1.25 percent of the home purchase price, respectively.