Working-Class Voters Shifted Toward Democratic and Independent Candidates in Nearly Every 2026 Senate Race

In the 2026 Senate races, working-class voters moved toward Democratic and independent candidates in nearly every race; and in eight states, their majority support flipped from backing President Donald Trump in 2024 to Democratic Senate candidates in 2026.

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A voter marks their ballot at a polling place in Bakersfield, California. — A voter marks their ballot at a polling place in Bakersfield, California, on November 3, 2026. (Getty/Mario Tama)

Working-class voters—defined as those without a four-year college degree—have become a key voting group in recent elections. New analysis from the Center for American Progress shows that, in the 2026 Senate races, working-class voters shifted away from Republicans compared with the 2024 presidential election. In 33 of the 35 2026 Senate races, Democratic candidates—along with three independents—gained support among working-class voters. In eight states, these voters even switched from favoring Trump in 2024 to Democratic Senate candidates: Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. On average, working-class voters shifted 12 percentage points toward Democrats, compared with an overall shift of 15 points among all voters, suggesting that working-class voters are open to shifting their support between parties but remain more divided than the broader electorate.

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Exit polls from the 2026 midterms indicate that voters were motivated by economic concerns: The most important issue concerning working-class voters revolved around the economy. Among all voters, 75 percent felt the economy was not doing well, 79 percent experienced hardship due to inflation, and 66 percent blamed the Trump administration’s policies for worsened conditions. The state of democracy and government corruption was also a top issue for working-class voters.

Figure 1 shows how the working-class margin shifted in each state from 2024 to 2026.

FIGURE 1

Appendix

Table A1 shows the working-class margin between Democrats and Republicans in each state’s 2026 Senate race, the 2024 presidential race, the last election for the same Senate seat, and the last election for the state’s other Senate seat. The rightmost column shows the Democrat-to-Republican margin among all voters in each state’s 2026 Senate race. Each margin is represented in percentage points, with a negative number representing a Republican win of these voters and a positive number representing a Democratic win of these voters.

Data used to calculate working-class margins for the 2026 and 2024 elections come from Fox News Voter Analysis, which uses Associated Press VoteCast survey data. Overall margins for the 2026 Senate races are from NBC News election results as of November 4, 2026.

TABLE A1

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Jazmine Amoako

Research Assistant, Economic Policy

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Working-Class Voters Shifted Toward Democratic and Independent Candidates in Nearly Every 2026 Senate Race