The U.S. Census Bureau’s newly released “Poverty in the United States” report shows that from 2024 to 2025, the official poverty rate fell while the supplemental poverty rate remained statistically unchanged. Many of the harmful provisions in the congressional Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), including its historic cuts to health care and food assistance, did not take effect until late 2025. However, the latest census data provide a benchmark against which to measure the law’s impact on poverty as its various provisions are implemented in the years ahead.
The official poverty rate decreased in 2025, while the supplemental poverty rate remained unchanged
According to the Census Bureau’s report, the 2025 poverty rate fell to 10.2 percent under the official poverty measure (OPM), or 34.5 million people. The 2025 poverty rate under the supplemental poverty measure (SPM) remained steady at 13.1 percent, or nearly 44.4 million people. (see Figure 1) In 2024, the OPM was 10.7 percent, and the SPM was 13 percent. The change in SPM from 2024 to 2025 was not statistically significant.
Differences between the two poverty measures warrant explanation to better understand how economic well-being is measured in the United States. To determine whether a family or individual is living in poverty, the OPM compares pretax cash income—such as wages and Social Security payments—with a threshold based on an inflation-adjusted 1963 minimum food diet. The SPM, meanwhile, provides a more comprehensive view of family finances by including tax credits as well as noncash benefits—such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—as income before subtracting medical costs, child care, tax payments, and other common expenses. Additionally, the SPM compares available resources with a threshold based on recent consumer spending on a basket of basic necessities, such as food, clothing, shelter, utilities, and phone and internet access. In contrast to a standardized threshold for the OPM nationwide, the SPM poverty threshold accounts for geographic differences in housing costs and housing tenure.
While both measures provide insight into poverty rates, the Center for American Progress focuses on the SPM in this analysis to gain a better understanding of how changes to social safety net programs in 2025 and recent increases in the cost of living affected poverty rates. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, SPM thresholds increased between 4.4 percent and 6.3 percent from 2024 to 2025, depending on housing tenure.
Those without a high school diploma experienced the largest increase in poverty under the SPM in 2025. (see Figure 2) This demographic group struggled with elevated unemployment rates and had the lowest median weekly earnings compared with other education groups in 2025.
The SPM provides insight into how noncash benefits and household expenses affect the number of people in poverty. Social Security lifted 28.8 million people out of poverty in 2025, making it the nation’s most effective anti-poverty program. Refundable tax credits—such as the earned income tax credit and the refundable portion of the child tax credit—and SNAP were the next most effective anti-poverty programs, lifting 6.1 million and 3.1 million people out of poverty, respectively. (see Figure 3)
The OBBBA threatens future economic stability
Basic needs programs such as Medicaid and SNAP lift millions of people out of poverty, but with OBBBA program cuts taking effect in late 2025 and continuing into the following years, families will feel the consequences of devastating cuts to the social safety net.
While SNAP is one of the nation’s most effective anti-poverty programs, the OBBBA cuts limit the reach of the program. Already, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s administrative data on SNAP reveal that program participation fell nationwide by nearly 2.4 million from the law’s enactment in July 2025 to December 2025. And between July 2025 and May 2026, SNAP participation fell by roughly 5 million people, with about 1.2 million estimated to be children in the 25 states that reported data on child participation. As states bear a greater share of SNAP’s administrative and benefit costs, they are likely to impose stricter administrative requirements or opt out of the program altogether, likely increasing food insecurity nationwide.
According to the Census Bureau’s “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States” report, the number of people without insurance in 2025 fell to nearly 26.7 million, or 7.9 percent of the total population—down from 27 million, or 8 percent, in 2024. This was not a statistically significant change from 2024 to 2025. Notably, the number of uninsured Americans is expected to grow over the next eight years, increasing by an estimated 14.2 million by 2034 as a result of the OBBBA’s health care cuts—including Medicaid work requirements—and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits.
Today’s census release also shows how the expiration of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025 affected uninsured rates in March 2026—when the survey was fielded. That month, 29 million, or 8.6 percent, reported being currently uninsured, marking an increase of 360,000 more uninsured people from March 2025. Decreased health care coverage not only has major implications for health outcomes but will also increase poverty rates, as medical expenses pushed 7.7 million people into poverty in 2025.
Additionally, cuts to SNAP and Medicaid jeopardize access to free or reduced-price school meals, and the associated benefits, for tens of millions of eligible children. In 2025, more than 1.2 million people were lifted above the poverty line through access to free school lunches. (see Figure 3) CAP estimates that if a typical family with two children in public school loses access to free school meals, it will need to spend an additional $1,890 per school year on school-offered meals or more than $2,214 on packed meals. Indeed, reduced access to free or subsidized school meals would place an immense burden on families’ budgets, especially as the Trump administration’s policies drive up the costs of food.
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Conclusion
While poverty remained flat, the 2025 poverty data foreshadow future trends as financial hardship continues to grow amid historic cuts to social safety nets and the rising cost of living. More recent developments, such as declining SNAP enrollment and Nebraska’s early implementation of Medicaid work requirements, point toward future increases in poverty as states prepare to implement the next round of OBBBA provisions in 2026.
The authors would like to thank Rachel Cotter Johnson, Natasha Murphy, Cristina Tello-Trillo, Emily Gee, Steve Bonitatibus, and Anh Nguyen for their assistance with this analysis.