Washington, D.C. — The U.S. economy needs to add about 97,000 jobs every month just to keep employment levels from deteriorating further, according to a new analysis from the Center for American Progress.
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 162,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent. The increase in jobs exceeded economists’ expectations. Even with the strong end-of-summer job growth, the economy added an average of only 31,000 jobs a month over the past year, well below what CAP research finds is the level needed to keep the share of the population employed steady.
“The United States has a long way to go to return to a pre-pandemic labor market,” said Cristina Tello-Trillo, chief economist at CAP and co-author of the analysis. “The economy needs to add roughly 97,000 jobs every month just to keep the share of people working from declining further. Job growth consistently below that level means fewer opportunities for workers amid uncertain economic conditions.”
CAP’s analysis finds:
- About 97,000 jobs per month are needed to stop further deterioration of the job market. CAP estimates that the economy must add 97,000 jobs each month over the next two years to keep the employment-to-population ratio within each age group steady at its July 2026 level.
- About 297,000 jobs per month are needed to return to the pre-pandemic labor market within two years. Restoring the employment-to-population ratio to its February 2020 level within two years would require approximately 297,000 jobs per month.
- The labor market is failing to keep pace with population growth. The economy added just 31,000 jobs per month, on average, from August 2025 to July 2026, while the employment-to-population ratio fell to 58.9 percent in July 2026, its lowest level since May 2014—outside the COVID-19 recession.
- BLS’ long-term projections fall short. BLS projects employment will grow by 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, equivalent to roughly 49,000 jobs per month if growth were constant. That pace would still fall well below the level CAP estimates is necessary to prevent employment rates from declining.
Read the analysis: “2026 U.S. Job Growth Has Lagged Far Behind Optimal Levels” by Cristina Tello-Trillo and Christian E. Weller
For more information on this topic or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].