Washington, D.C. — Even with the provisional two-week ceasefire, American families will continue to pay the price for President Donald Trump’s war in Iran through higher costs for gas, housing, and everyday goods, according to a new analysis from the Center for American Progress.
The conflict disrupted global energy markets and supply chains, pushing up prices for fuel, transportation, and key inputs across the economy. Even as oil production begins to recover, elevated risks in the region and lingering supply chain disruptions are expected to keep costs higher than pre-war levels.
“American families are paying for Trump’s war,” said Emily Gee, senior vice president for Economic Policy at the Center for American Progress and co-author of the analysis. “Even if the fighting has stopped, higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and increased economic uncertainty will continue to weigh on household budgets and business investment. The economic damage from this conflict is already baked in.”
CAP’s analysis finds:
- Higher fuel costs are already hitting families. Gas prices have surged above $4 per gallon nationally, with households spending an estimated $8.4 billion more on gasoline in March alone compared with pre-war levels.
- Inflation pressures are rising. Analysts expect the March consumer price index to come in nearly 1 percentage point higher than February’s rate, contributing to a projected 3.3 percent year-over-year increase.
- Lower-income households are hardest hit. Families in the lowest income quintile spend more than 30 percent of their income on transportation, making them especially vulnerable to rising fuel costs.
- Businesses face higher input and shipping costs. Fuel, liquified natural gas, and aluminum prices have risen sharply, while supply chain disruptions have congested 60 to 70 percent of major global ports.
- Farmers are under increased financial strain. Fertilizer and diesel prices rose to roughly 50 percent above pre-war levels, exacerbating already rising farm debt and bankruptcy risks.
- Housing affordability is worsening. Rising inflation expectations have pushed up mortgage rates, costing homebuyers tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.
Read the analysis: “Trump’s War May Be Over But the Economic Damage is Not,” by Emily Gee, Kyle Ross, Akshay Thyagarajan, and Leo Banks.
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at [email protected].