Washington, D.C. — Public support for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey is far from absolute, even among members of his own party, according to a new poll commissioned by the Center for American Progress.
About 74 percent of voters supporting the Justice and Development Party (AKP), representing 27 percent of the overall Turkish population, said they were “loyal” to President Erdoğan when asked to describe their current level of support. CAP’s analysis suggests the level of dedicated support from his own party is strong but not complete, and that his loyal support comprises a relatively small as a share of the country’s total population.
The poll suggests there remains a lack of coherence on the Turkish right, with no clear conservative successor. The poll was fielded as part of an effort to better understand the political opinions and worldviews of Turkish conservatives; how deep Erdoğan’s support is; and who might succeed him should he lose the next election.
“The key question regarding succession remains whether anyone besides President Erdoğan can hope to hold together the diverse religious conservative, Islamist, nativist, and hardcore nationalist components that continue to hold the balance of power in Turkey,” said Max Hoffman, associate director of National Security and International Policy and author of the analysis. “Thus far, the answer still appears to be no.”
The poll was carried out by the Turkish polling firm Metropoll from October 20-26 and is based on face-to-face questioning of 1,669 people in 28 provinces using stratified sampling and weighting. It has a margin error of 2.4 percent.
Read the analysis: “Turkish Conservatives’ Loyalty to Erdoğan and Views on Potential Successors” by Max Hoffman
For more information or to talk to an expert, please contact Sam Hananel at [email protected] or 202-478-6327.