In November 2011 the Center for American Progress released Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin’s influential report, “The Path to 270.” That report argued that two large forces will ultimately determine the outcome of the 2012 election: the shifting demographic balance of the American electorate and the objective reality and voter perception of the economy in key battleground states. With the campaign debate heating up and increasingly cast in ideological terms, it is time to revisit the basic questions posed by the original report: Will the rising electorate of communities of color, the Millennial generation, professionals, single women, and secular voters that pushed President Barack Obama to victory in 2008 be sufficient and mobilized enough to ensure his reelection in 2012? Or will the Republican Party and its nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, capitalize on a struggling economy and greater mobilization from a conservative base that holds the president in deep disdain?
This panel will explore these and other issues surrounding the 2012 election as presented in a new paper, “The Path to 270 Revisited,” from Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin of the Center for American Progress.